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Discussion Starter #1
it's on and it needs a thread-

trump is already stoking the chaos starting in florida and georgia.

how will the country feel after 2 more years of trump drama and chaos?

should be good.
 

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gerrymandering and voter suppression works
if not for gerrymandering and voter suppression, the blue ripple would have been a blue tsunami
also- fear and racism works - notice how the migrant caravan disappeared from the news?
do you think it was a coincidence that Sean Hannity game on stage at that rally?
 

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we are living in the WWE universe, things are not what they seem, they are not real.
take everything with a grain of salt.
 

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A Republican will challenge DJT in the primaries and will pose a formidable challenge when the GOP stacks up super-delegates reminiscent of the DNC's pile to suppress Bernie. I personally don't think Trump will run again, he's losing too much money being president. Much better to rake in the dough running the circuit as an ex-president, Fox alone would probably write him an 8 figure check.

The GOP has nothing to lose choosing an opponent for DJT, won't be a stack of 20 candidates on the stage ever again. He won't win again if he's the candidate, too many folks who thought he'd temper his behavior and bask in the glory of winning have been proven wrong.

Prime time for 3rd party candidates if HRC decides to throw a hat in the ring again.

The senate will go +/- 1 seat either way from wherever we land in 2018. There's just not that many seats that will be competitive.
 

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HRC needs to get on a bus and move to Machu Picchu were she can retire giving bird watching tours and leave the rest of the world the fuck alone...
 

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A Republican will challenge DJT in the primaries and will pose a formidable challenge when the GOP stacks up super-delegates reminiscent of the DNC's pile to suppress Bernie. I personally don't think Trump will run again, he's losing too much money being president. Much better to rake in the dough running the circuit as an ex-president, Fox alone would probably write him an 8 figure check.

The GOP has nothing to lose choosing an opponent for DJT, won't be a stack of 20 candidates on the stage ever again. He won't win again if he's the candidate, too many folks who thought he'd temper his behavior and bask in the glory of winning have been proven wrong.

Trump only won in 2016 because his opponent was so horrible. Even so, he lost the popular vote by some 3% points. If he runs in 2020, it will be even harder for him to win. The only chance he has is if the Democrats somehow fail to learn anything from last time and run an even worse candidate.

The Republicans are in a constant state of shitting their pants with the horrible thought that Trump will be the nominee in 2020. You can bet that they're tearing out their hair trying to come up with ways to get rid of him without damaging their Republican brand (more than it already has been damaged).


Prime time for 3rd party candidates if HRC decides to throw a hat in the ring again.
In the history of American presidential elections, there has never been a better opportunity for a 3rd party or independent candidate than 2016. The fact that this opportunity was squandered doesn't fill me with optimism about our political system. With Trump and Clinton on the ballots the best alternatives were a couple of cranks from the Green Party and the Libertarian Party. Yippee.
 

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Don’t really know if it can be done, Stockdill, thus the remark about the super delegates. Really don’t think they’ll do that, either. He’s such a gift to the Democrats, though, and the GOP has maybe a year to figure out something. Any of the other guys in 2016 in the White House and there’d be no speculation about 2020.
 

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look out for Jeb and John Kasich
Jeb has been silent the entire time
Kasich has criticized him maturely.
 

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A Republican will challenge DJT in the primaries and will pose a formidable challenge when the GOP stacks up super-delegates reminiscent of the DNC's pile to suppress Bernie. I personally don't think Trump will run again, he's losing too much money being president. Much better to rake in the dough running the circuit as an ex-president, Fox alone would probably write him an 8 figure check.

The GOP has nothing to lose choosing an opponent for DJT, won't be a stack of 20 candidates on the stage ever again. He won't win again if he's the candidate, too many folks who thought he'd temper his behavior and bask in the glory of winning have been proven wrong.

Prime time for 3rd party candidates if HRC decides to throw a hat in the ring again.

The senate will go +/- 1 seat either way from wherever we land in 2018. There's just not that many seats that will be competitive.
I can't see him walking away from the ultimate position of power willingly. Ego over money. He's still young enough for the money to be there when it's over. I think you might be overlooking the power of incumbency. It depends on how the economy goes over the next two years as well as any immigration flare-ups or wars which might be just over the horizon.
 

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what candidate can beat the trump base in the 2000 primary :big laugh:
It's possible, perhaps likely, that Trump will beat himself. He is so arrogant that he literally says and does anything that occurs to him on a whim. That's exactly the type of behavior that eventually blows up in your face.

Right now there is a growing list of situations that he created which all have the potential to spiral out of control and put him in a position that simply can't be defended on any grounds.

-- Perjury over hush money to prostitute, possibly CF violation.

-- Shady investments (foreign money laundering), improper bookkeeping, conflict of interest. The House has the potential power to subpoena Trump's tax and business records and who knows what Easter eggs might be found therein.

-- Members of his administration dropping like flies. Working for a bully makes for a very unpleasant environment. The resulting high turnover rate is a killer for any organization.

-- Tariff policy backfiring. Retaliatory tariffs wreak havoc on exports. If the stock market tanks or the econony takes a shit for any reason, all bets are off.

-- Our traditionally closest allies, having enough of his insults and abuse, uniting in policies to strike back at him (and the U S.).

-- Caravan of immigrants arrives at border soon. When it does, it will be a powder keg that must be treated carefully. There are multitudes of scenarios where it blows up. If a bunch of poor peasants squatting in tents get slaughtered by our border army, Trump will be a monster on the scale of Hitler. Or maybe even Nixon.

-- The NFL kneeling controversy. If that returns to the front page Trump will feel compelled to stir that pot. There are plenty of things he might say or do which would financially harm the NFL and risk their multi-billion dollar cash cow.

-- Tweets. Trump is like an insecure teenager who spends way too much time on Twitter dishing out insults and tossing off angry tirades at everybody who crosses him. Not illegal, but embarrassing and very un-presidential. I don't know how much of such buffoonery is tolerable, but there has to be a limit.

-- Russia, Russia,Russia. There was no collusion with Russia to influence the election - they did that all on their own. But Trump may still have any number of problems associated with the issue. Like perjury or obstruction of justice.

**********



The bottom line is Trump is a bully and he constantly lashes out at anyone who irritates or offends his enormous, but fragile, ego. He surrounds himself with people he finds useful and heaps praise on them, but will turn on them in an instant for whatever reason that makes sense inside his head at any given moment.

People like that can get their way for only so long. At some point, the number of enemies you make grows to a significant force, while the number of allies dwindles away to nothing.

For a bully like Trump, that day of reckoning is inevitable. If it happens before summer of 2020, then he's toast. If not, and Trump is nominated as their candidate, the GOP is royally fucked.
 

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I can't see him walking away from the ultimate position of power willingly. Ego over money. He's still young enough for the money to be there when it's over. I think you might be overlooking the power of incumbency. It depends on how the economy goes over the next two years as well as any immigration flare-ups or wars which might be just over the horizon.
Took the words out of my mouth!
 

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Discussion Starter #16
correct trump won't be in office in 2021

but he owns his base and whether he is in power or not they will follow his lead

trump's base can fall to 10% and he still owns the pubs- just do the numbers

pubs can't even pretend to win without trump's loyal to the end base
 

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correct trump won't be in office in 2021

but he owns his base and whether he is in power or not they will follow his lead
If he's not in power, then they can just follow his lead right out the door and into ignominy.


trump's base can fall to 10% and he still owns the pubs- just do the numbers
Under normal math you typically need a majority to control any democratically oriented group. So, if his supporters fall to 10% of the group, how does that allow him to "own" the Republicans?

pubs can't even pretend to win without trump's loyal to the end base
Pubs have won many elections over the years without Trump. They only election they won with Trump and his loyal base was 2016.

If Trump drops out of the race in 2020, it seems very likely Trump's base will just dissolve back into the pop culture/reality TV show fan base where it came from. Then, the normal Republican base will take over where it left off 4 years earlier. This seems obvious. Why wouldn't this happen?
 

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Discussion Starter #19
If he's not in power, then they can just follow his lead right out the door and into ignominy.




Uunder normal math you typically need a majority to control any democratically oriented group. So, if his supporters fall to 10% of the group, how does that allow him to "own" the Republicans?

because pubs can't win with 90% of their existing base. They are at the margin now. Even if his base falls to 10%, pubs are worthless without it

Pubs have won many elections over the years without Trump. They only election they won with Trump and his loyal base was 2016.

If Trump drops out of the race in 2020, it seems very likely Trump's base will just dissolve back into the pop culture/reality TV show fan base where it came from. Then, the normal Republican base will take over where it left off 4 years earlier. This seems obvious. Why wouldn't this happen?[/COLOR]
just as sarah palin owned the tea party. if trump doesn't go to jail after he leaves office (which is what I think is most likely to happen) the only business he is successful in is media and he will take his base with him where ever he chooses to perform. The true hard core of trumps base is not about to change ideologies just because trump is out of office and trump is the ruler of their ideology. Trump and his hardcore base can never win the presidency again but they can own america's Nationalists (a large and viable party pubs need)

the next republican primary, already ramping up will be even more trumpy than now.
 

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if trump doesn't go to jail after he leaves office (which is what I think is most likely to happen) the only business he is successful in is media and he will take his base with him where ever he chooses to perform. The true hard core of trumps base is not about to change ideologies just because trump is out of office and trump is the ruler of their ideology. Trump and his hardcore base can never win the presidency again but they can own america's Nationalists (a large and viable party pubs need)

Your theory depends on the assumption that Trump fundamentally altered the beliefs and ideologies of some significant portion of the Republican base. That didn't happen. Trump is a new element imposed on the normal party system from outside that brought in its own supporters (fans of certain reality TV shows) and also attracted many of the nationalistic/partriotic/zenophobic/ elements already within the party. The more moderate and reasonable individuals in the Republican base don't like Trump but are either reluctantly supporting him out of party solidarity against Democrats or are simply sulking quietly and waiting for the day when the Orange Idiot is gone.

There is every reason to believe that when this happens, the supporters that Trump brought with him will leave, but their loss will be exactly balanced out by the traditional Republican supporters who return to the fold after his departure.

the next republican primary, already ramping up will be even more trumpy than now.
If Trump isn't in it, then I doubt it. If he is in it, then there will most definitely be a large (and unprecedented) element within the party to oppose him and try to take him out.

Either way, it won't be long until we see what actually plays out.
 
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