Biden Apologises. "everyone guessed wrong." - Page 2 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #11 of 40 (permalink) Old 06-14-2009, 06:55 PM
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Wrong, oh dumb-ass... When I said the economy was doing fine it WAS doing fine!
You know, some of us have really good searching skills on this board. And when an edit is made, it shows when.

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post #12 of 40 (permalink) Old 06-14-2009, 07:00 PM
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Well what the fuck do we do now? That's right keep spending.

Now they admit that they were wrong and they keep trudging along.

Unfuckingbelievable!

StimulusApologies - The Page by Mark Halperin – TIME.com
What's the point in a few little quotes. Let's look at the whole transcript.

Regarding the incorrect estimates of the economy at the time of the Stimulus Package, the lagging indicators were not in at the time [they can never be] to fully get a picture of what the economy is. They don't admit they were wrong in mission, just in the scale of the problem. You would have been pissed if they had asked for MORE MONEY, which might have been the case if they had been able to address the lagging indicators in their middle of the road estimates. [some of us were already projecting 10% unemployment for Q3]

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++==

MR. GREGORY: All right. I want to come back to the issue of foreign policy, a lot to discuss there, but I want to go to the other big test for this administration, and that is, of course, the economy. You are in charge of monitoring the stimulus.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: That's right.

MR. GREGORY: Eight hundred billion dollar stimulus. A hundred days after it was signed, the president said 150,000 jobs had been created or saved. Can you explain where that number comes from?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Sure. Yes, look, there's an econometric model that, that economists have been using for decades to correlate the economic circumstances of the nation with the creation of jobs. It is a model known as question, it's a model the Council of Economic Advisers have used to come up with that 150,000 jobs. But in fact--and by the way, I think we're going to create 600,000 jobs in the next 100 days, because now this thing is beginning to roll out. We actually have let these contracts, the governors with--who have money for road contracts and so on, they're now just putting spades in the ground, just hiring people. And so I don't know anybody who's argued with the model that we've used. But the key here for us is not whether or not we're going to argue about how many jobs, you know, there, there are out there, it's whether or not are we in fact producing employment for people? And it's undeniable.

MR. GREGORY: But--well, but that's an important point. You say people aren't arguing about that; in fact, they are. I mean, you're suggesting that this is an accepted model.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Well, no, I...

MR. GREGORY: Your own economic adviser said this on Tuesday: "[Jared] Bernstein, Biden's economic adviser, said in an interview that the president's citation of [saving or creating] 150,000 [jobs] is `an estimate' based partly on what the economy would look like in the absence of the stimulus package. But Bernstein said he could not break down how many of those jobs were created vs. saved. `That's a division we're not able to make at a level of accuracy we're comfortable with.' he said." And now you're talking about another 600,000 jobs. Should America just accept that level of progress?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Look--yeah. No, no, they shouldn't. Look, whether this is, whether this was 147,000 jobs or 158,000 jobs is not the relevant point. Look, let me put it this way. Prior to us taking office, the job loss for the month was over 700,000 jobs. It's been over 600,000. Since we've taken office the job loss has dropped now to 343,000 jobs; below other people's estimates, below the consensus estimate. Can I claim credit that all of that's due, due to the recovery package? No. But it clearly has had an impact.

MR. GREGORY: But the point of the stimulus was it would stop the unemployment picture from getting worse, right? Wasn't that the claim?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: And it has.

MR. GREGORY: It has? Well, here...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: It's not getting worse.

MR. GREGORY: But here's the reality, and that is...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Relative.

MR. GREGORY: ...that when this report was issued by your economic adviser...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Yes.

MR. GREGORY: ...and Dr. Romer from the White House, the assertion was that you could keep unemployment at 8 percent and then it would go down after that. In fact, it's now at 9.4 percent. Was it oversold?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, look. No. What we did is we took the econometric models that were used by businesses as well as academics. At the time no one realized how bad the economy was. The projections, in fact, turned out to be worse. But it was--we, we, we took the mainstream model as to what we thought and everyone else thought the unemployment rate would be. But the fact of the matter is the--I don't think anyone can dispute the unemployment rate would be considerably higher, but for--at least 150,000 jobs higher, but for this economic stimulus package.

MR. GREGORY: Right. But the, but this package was sold on the premise that it would in fact keep unemployment at 8 percent. It's exceeded that...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

MR. GREGORY: ...with the recovery plan.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: It wasn't sold on that. It was sold on it would create...

MR. GREGORY: That's what the report said, Mr. Vice President.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: ...or--no, it said it would--what would happen was it would save or create jobs. It's doing that. It is doing that. Everyone guessed wrong, at the time the estimate was made, about what the state of the economy was at the moment this was passed. Now, we're going to recalibrate this in terms of what we've inherited, what in fact is going on out there. But look, the bottom line is that jobs are being created that would not have been there before. All you've got to do is go into New York City. There's 14,000 teachers working who got their, got their notices. Go with me up to New Flyer bus company up in Minnesota, come--I mean, there--it's--throughout the country, it's creating jobs.

MR. GREGORY: Regardless, though, the economy is worse off with or without this stimulus plan that this administration expected.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: The economy was worse off when we made the assessment than anyone thought it was. The economy is actually getting better, things are getting better. We have a long, long way to go. But now you see what's happening. We're having a, a situation where housing is starting to improve, where lending is starting to come forward, where we have a situation where we've gained some control of the automobile companies who otherwise would have had to been liquidated in terms of them staying in business and having a prospect of growing. So I think if you ask out there, look--and look at what the, you know, these measures of confidence in the economy are. Everyone feels mildly better about where the economy's going.

MR. GREGORY: One more point about the stimulus, and that is you said when this thing was being debated, most of it would get out the door right away, $800 billion. And yet just this week there were reports about the fact that only 6 percent of that money has been spent so far.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, I don't know who said...

MR. GREGORY: Where are the projects?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: ...we're going to get $800 billion out the door in 100 days. We have over 2,000 projects approved. We have now a situation where you have people--you're going to see in the next--and let me--this is an important point. You let a contractor build a highway. It's $42 million, like I was just--did one in the state of Kansas, $42 million dollars. Now what's happened? The governor, the governor gets that approval. What's he doing? Puts it out to bid, competitive bid. It took somewhere between a month and three months to get those bids back. Now the spades are in the ground. Now it's working. That's why we're confidently going to predict that we will increase fourfold what went--and now $150 billion--$140 billion has been obligated now. But obligation requires, then, the states to go forward and get the contracting done according to the rules that they have within the state for competitive bidding.

MR. GREGORY: This administration, this president has said we're going to get America's fiscal house in order.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Yes.

MR. GREGORY: And yet the only negative ratings this president has are in two areas, the budget deficit and controlling spending. Here's the USA Today/Gallup Poll from just this week. And you see the budget deficit numbers, 48 percent disapproval; controlling spending, 51 percent disapproval. And here's why. Between $800 billion stimulus, bailouts, a promise to do away with the Bush tax cuts, there is a projection of $7 trillion in deficits over 10 years. And then this week the president says, "Look, we're going to be like a typical American family. We're going to start paying for things as we go," only there are big exceptions to that to the tune of $2.5 trillion over 10 years. This was the Washington Post editorial on Friday: "The president's self-congratulatory back-patting about fiscal rectitude is more than a bit hard to take in light of the huge exceptions he would grant. ... Mr. Obama's professions of being willing to make hard choices are belied by his failure to adjust his spending plans to budgetary reality. Something will need to give--either raising significantly more revenue or dramatically scaling back government." Where are the tough choices, Mr. Vice President?

<more at the leap> June 14: Biden, Murphy, Scarborough - Meet the Press, online at MSNBC- msnbc.com

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post #13 of 40 (permalink) Old 06-15-2009, 04:26 AM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
What's the point in a few little quotes. Let's look at the whole transcript.

Regarding the incorrect estimates of the economy at the time of the Stimulus Package, the lagging indicators were not in at the time [they can never be] to fully get a picture of what the economy is. They don't admit they were wrong in mission, just in the scale of the problem. You would have been pissed if they had asked for MORE MONEY, which might have been the case if they had been able to address the lagging indicators in their middle of the road estimates. [some of us were already projecting 10% unemployment for Q3]

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++==
MR. GREGORY: Eight hundred billion dollar stimulus. A hundred days after it was signed, the president said 150,000 jobs had been created or saved. Can you explain where that number comes from?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Sure. Yes, look, there's an econometric model that, that economists have been using for decades to correlate the economic circumstances of the nation with the creation of jobs. It is a model known as question, it's a model the Council of Economic Advisers have used to come up with that 150,000 jobs. But in fact--and by the way, I think we're going to create 600,000 jobs in the next 100 days, because now this thing is beginning to roll out. We actually have let these contracts, the governors with--who have money for road contracts and so on, they're now just putting spades in the ground, just hiring people. And so I don't know anybody who's argued with the model that we've used. But the key here for us is not whether or not we're going to argue about how many jobs, you know, there, there are out there, it's whether or not are we in fact producing employment for people? And it's undeniable.

MR. GREGORY: But--well, but that's an important point. You say people aren't arguing about that; in fact, they are. I mean, you're suggesting that this is an accepted model.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Well, no, I...

MR. GREGORY: Your own economic adviser said this on Tuesday: "[Jared] Bernstein, Biden's economic adviser, said in an interview that the president's citation of [saving or creating] 150,000 [jobs] is `an estimate' based partly on what the economy would look like in the absence of the stimulus package. But Bernstein said he could not break down how many of those jobs were created vs. saved. `That's a division we're not able to make at a level of accuracy we're comfortable with.' he said." And now you're talking about another 600,000 jobs. Should America just accept that level of progress?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Look--yeah. No, no, they shouldn't. Look, whether this is, whether this was 147,000 jobs or 158,000 jobs is not the relevant point. Look, let me put it this way. Prior to us taking office, the job loss for the month was over 700,000 jobs. It's been over 600,000. Since we've taken office the job loss has dropped now to 343,000 jobs; below other people's estimates, below the consensus estimate. Can I claim credit that all of that's due, due to the recovery package? No. But it clearly has had an impact.

MR. GREGORY: But the point of the stimulus was it would stop the unemployment picture from getting worse, right? Wasn't that the claim?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: And it has.

MR. GREGORY: It has? Well, here...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: It's not getting worse.

MR. GREGORY: But here's the reality, and that is...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Relative.

MR. GREGORY: ...that when this report was issued by your economic adviser...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Yes.

MR. GREGORY: ...and Dr. Romer from the White House, the assertion was that you could keep unemployment at 8 percent and then it would go down after that. In fact, it's now at 9.4 percent. Was it oversold?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, look. No. What we did is we took the econometric models that were used by businesses as well as academics. At the time no one realized how bad the economy was. The projections, in fact, turned out to be worse. But it was--we, we, we took the mainstream model as to what we thought and everyone else thought the unemployment rate would be. But the fact of the matter is the--I don't think anyone can dispute the unemployment rate would be considerably higher, but for--at least 150,000 jobs higher, but for this economic stimulus package.

MR. GREGORY: Right. But the, but this package was sold on the premise that it would in fact keep unemployment at 8 percent. It's exceeded that...

VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

MR. GREGORY: ...with the recovery plan.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: It wasn't sold on that. It was sold on it would create...

MR. GREGORY: That's what the report said, Mr. Vice President.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: ...or--no, it said it would--what would happen was it would save or create jobs. It's doing that. It is doing that. Everyone guessed wrong, at the time the estimate was made, about what the state of the economy was at the moment this was passed. Now, we're going to recalibrate this in terms of what we've inherited, what in fact is going on out there. But look, the bottom line is that jobs are being created that would not have been there before. All you've got to do is go into New York City. There's 14,000 teachers working who got their, got their notices. Go with me up to New Flyer bus company up in Minnesota, come--I mean, there--it's--throughout the country, it's creating jobs.

MR. GREGORY: Regardless, though, the economy is worse off with or without this stimulus plan that this administration expected.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: The economy was worse off when we made the assessment than anyone thought it was. The economy is actually getting better, things are getting better. We have a long, long way to go. But now you see what's happening. We're having a, a situation where housing is starting to improve, where lending is starting to come forward, where we have a situation where we've gained some control of the automobile companies who otherwise would have had to been liquidated in terms of them staying in business and having a prospect of growing. So I think if you ask out there, look--and look at what the, you know, these measures of confidence in the economy are. Everyone feels mildly better about where the economy's going.

MR. GREGORY: One more point about the stimulus, and that is you said when this thing was being debated, most of it would get out the door right away, $800 billion. And yet just this week there were reports about the fact that only 6 percent of that money has been spent so far.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: No, I don't know who said...

MR. GREGORY: Where are the projects?

VICE PRES. BIDEN: ...we're going to get $800 billion out the door in 100 days. We have over 2,000 projects approved. We have now a situation where you have people--you're going to see in the next--and let me--this is an important point. You let a contractor build a highway. It's $42 million, like I was just--did one in the state of Kansas, $42 million dollars. Now what's happened? The governor, the governor gets that approval. What's he doing? Puts it out to bid, competitive bid. It took somewhere between a month and three months to get those bids back. Now the spades are in the ground. Now it's working. That's why we're confidently going to predict that we will increase fourfold what went--and now $150 billion--$140 billion has been obligated now. But obligation requires, then, the states to go forward and get the contracting done according to the rules that they have within the state for competitive bidding.

MR. GREGORY: This administration, this president has said we're going to get America's fiscal house in order.

VICE PRES. BIDEN: Yes.

MR. GREGORY: And yet the only negative ratings this president has are in two areas, the budget deficit and controlling spending. Here's the USA Today/Gallup Poll from just this week. And you see the budget deficit numbers, 48 percent disapproval; controlling spending, 51 percent disapproval. And here's why. Between $800 billion stimulus, bailouts, a promise to do away with the Bush tax cuts, there is a projection of $7 trillion in deficits over 10 years. And then this week the president says, "Look, we're going to be like a typical American family. We're going to start paying for things as we go," only there are big exceptions to that to the tune of $2.5 trillion over 10 years. This was the Washington Post editorial on Friday: "The president's self-congratulatory back-patting about fiscal rectitude is more than a bit hard to take in light of the huge exceptions he would grant. ... Mr. Obama's professions of being willing to make hard choices are belied by his failure to adjust his spending plans to budgetary reality. Something will need to give--either raising significantly more revenue or dramatically scaling back government." Where are the tough choices, Mr. Vice President?

<more at the leap> June 14: Biden, Murphy, Scarborough - Meet the Press, online at MSNBC- msnbc.com
So, I bolded some interesting things here. Not quite sure why you would choose Biden to quote anything from McBear but be that as it may.

We have a situation where the Stimulus package was sold to Americans as an "Emergency" and that we had to act immediately in order to survive. We had to pass it in order to keep unemployment below 9% (The quote says 8% but I seem to remember 9% as the actual number so will give 'Ol Gaffomatic Joe the benefit of the doubt).

McBear you accurately describe unemployment as a lagging indicator. Any basic understanding of economics and anyone would agree. The rub comes in when we have a President who has all these supposed experts (read Oligarchy) sitting around trying to figure out what to do. Now we here from the guy who is supposed to be spearheading this (Biden) that everybody "guessed" wrong.

My question/s is/are what the heck are these people doing if they are experts? Who is making these "guesses" and not taking into account basic economic theory about such things as unemployment? Why is the President acting in a fashion without proper vetting of the issues or contemplation of the consequences?

On top of that, Biden tells us that they all "guessed" wrong but now wants us to believe that 600,000 new jobs will be on the way!

Sorry guys but think that Obama has the same credibility that Bush did on this issue. Thing is Obama has been in office for 6 months, Bush took 8 years.

Who's John Galt.

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post #14 of 40 (permalink) Old 06-15-2009, 04:28 AM
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$1,200,000,000,000 divided by 300,000,000 = $40,000

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post #16 of 40 (permalink) Old 06-15-2009, 09:16 AM
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$1,200,000,000,000 divided by 300,000,000 = $40,000
... mathematician too, are we?

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post #17 of 40 (permalink) Old 06-15-2009, 09:21 AM
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Wrong, oh dumb-ass... When I said the economy was doing fine it WAS doing fine!
he's a dumb ass? You want we should take a poll on whether or not you made a total fool of yourself while the stock market crashed?

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post #18 of 40 (permalink) Old 06-15-2009, 11:08 AM
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$1,200,000,000,000 divided by 300,000,000 = $40,000
And how many of those 300mm actually have a job, and will pay for that debt. I bet only 1/3rd. So, fo every worked, the burden is more like $120,000 each.

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post #19 of 40 (permalink) Old 06-15-2009, 11:18 AM Thread Starter
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he's a dumb ass? You want we should take a poll on whether or not you made a total fool of yourself while the stock market crashed?
Actually I think the poll would be a bigger hit and much more of an illustration of bi-partisanship if we did a poll on:

FTL: Idiot? Dumbass? Special Needs in a "I'm a winner!" sort of way?

That would be a fantastic poll.

Who's John Galt.

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post #20 of 40 (permalink) Old 06-15-2009, 11:21 AM
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So, I bolded some interesting things here. Not quite sure why you would choose Biden to quote anything from McBear but be that as it may.

We have a situation where the Stimulus package was sold to Americans as an "Emergency" and that we had to act immediately in order to survive. We had to pass it in order to keep unemployment below 9% (The quote says 8% but I seem to remember 9% as the actual number so will give 'Ol Gaffomatic Joe the benefit of the doubt).

McBear you accurately describe unemployment as a lagging indicator. Any basic understanding of economics and anyone would agree. The rub comes in when we have a President who has all these supposed experts (read Oligarchy) sitting around trying to figure out what to do. Now we here from the guy who is supposed to be spearheading this (Biden) that everybody "guessed" wrong.

My question/s is/are what the heck are these people doing if they are experts? Who is making these "guesses" and not taking into account basic economic theory about such things as unemployment? Why is the President acting in a fashion without proper vetting of the issues or contemplation of the consequences?

On top of that, Biden tells us that they all "guessed" wrong but now wants us to believe that 600,000 new jobs will be on the way!

Sorry guys but think that Obama has the same credibility that Bush did on this issue. Thing is Obama has been in office for 6 months, Bush took 8 years.
I chose to put the entire interview out instead of clips so folks could draw their own opinions, not the Times writers selected opinion. Let Biden's entire quotes stand on their own.

As for Oligarchy, you apparently learned a new word. Good, now learn its real meaning instead of throwing it out as if it was germane.

As for why the unemployment number surprised everyone, and its place in the stimulus package, we are now looking at it in retrospect. Easy to call that shot now. Looking at it live, on the other hand, there were at least a dozen models. Each had their merits and their reasons. My guess is they chose a weighted average choice, not picking either the most optimistic or pessimistic model for their model as they positioned it for the Stimulus Package. I would have picked the 66% model if I had to make the call. Turned out Corporate America let a bunch more jobs go in the first quarter than was expected. Some were expected, some were not.

From what I read of the Stimulus Package "sell" and the numbers that went with it, everyone was going with the best numbers available, based on a consensus of models. You might not like it, but that is how that process has worked for decades. And this one has proven much cleaner than many. By picking where they did, they provided a base that works, even though it might not provide all the impact that was initially projected. That can be addressed at the tweak and tune the output of the package.

Those who make a big deal about "missing" the projection of unemployment miss the understanding of the process.

McBear,
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