Presidential Approval Index - Page 3 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #21 of 42 (permalink) Old 06-05-2009, 06:11 PM
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As long as a politician doesn't have to do anything except kiss babies and cut ribbons her/his popularity will remain high and negatives, low.

Every substantive decision will turn some fraction of supporters away from the politician. If the politician is lucky it will bind some supporters more closely and perhaps bring a few more in. But mostly you get bits and pieces of erosion. A chip here, a flake there. At first it doesn't show. But by the end of the first term, there is usually a sizable proportion who can't stand the SOB. So then the politician has to run of "fear of change." It will be worse under my opponents.

It usually works. Sometimes it doesn't. A brief review of history will bear this out.

Obama has been very, very busy. Like him or not, you have to give him credit for having the stones to get out there and take a risk, especially knowing that each such challenge will cost him some good will.

B

The biggest problems we are facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all and thatís what I intend to reverse.

~ Senator Barack H. Obama
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post #22 of 42 (permalink) Old 06-05-2009, 06:14 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
Oddly, when you have a poll that consistently leans results to the right you end up with those types of results.

When you have a National polling company that is know for no political bias the numbers seem different. Just do a historical search on the two polling companies and you will understand.
Shows essentially the same thing -- noisy approval line and increasing negatives.

Gallop is a well-known supporter of liberal causes. So what? His methods are reliable. Same with Zogby. If you say Rasmussen is a conservative I'll take your word for it. His methods are respected, too. Each of them use confidential methods that they jealously protect.

B

The biggest problems we are facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all and thatís what I intend to reverse.

~ Senator Barack H. Obama
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post #23 of 42 (permalink) Old 06-05-2009, 08:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Botnst View Post
Shows essentially the same thing -- noisy approval line and increasing negatives.

Gallop is a well-known supporter of liberal causes. So what? His methods are reliable. Same with Zogby. If you say Rasmussen is a conservative I'll take your word for it. His methods are respected, too. Each of them use confidential methods that they jealously protect.

B
How are the negatives increasing if they peaked in late March and have not gone up from there? Looks more like things have had a running average that have stayed constant since about the beginning of March.

Regarding Rasmussen, if you look back at all the spreadsheets of ALL the polls prior to the election, Rasmussen was constantly 23% lower for Obama than the national aggregate and 26% lower than my aggregate which took in EVERY national poll. My dataset includes everyone's daily captures for 9/28-11/4 and encompasses 21 different polls. The final spread was 7.5 on the cumulative polls, the actual was 7.2. Rasmussen was 5.86.

If you look back during McCain's worst times prior to the election, see who was calling it even.

As for Gallup, you might want to check that "liberal" thing. Having worked with them at NYU in class, I did not meet a single exec that was not conservative. Same with PEW but they tend to provide somewhat leaning results like Rasmussen, though I really like their media studies.

McBear,
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Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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post #24 of 42 (permalink) Old 06-05-2009, 10:35 PM
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Looks like the lower curve is on a logarithmic curve. At least, that's the first curve I'd try fitting it to. It could be an asymptotic curve, but I doubt it. IMO there are so many unknown events in the future that could cause either a massive rally in support, like Bush after 9/11, or a retreat, like Bush after 2004. It just takes a man who will take a chance in leadership to display either relationship. Or both. Bush had a peculiar gift for both.

The thing to remember about curve like these is that just because they had a particular pattern over some previous time scale is not guarantee, or even inclination, to display the same curve in the future.

I wrote "curve" 3 times in the first paragraph. I think it displays granularity of vocabulary.

The biggest problems we are facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all and thatís what I intend to reverse.

~ Senator Barack H. Obama
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post #25 of 42 (permalink) Old 06-05-2009, 10:40 PM
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My poll is bigger than your poll.
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post #26 of 42 (permalink) Old 06-05-2009, 10:42 PM
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My poll is bigger than your poll.
That's going out on a limb.

The biggest problems we are facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all and thatís what I intend to reverse.

~ Senator Barack H. Obama
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post #27 of 42 (permalink) Old 06-05-2009, 10:50 PM
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My limbs bigger than your limb.
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post #28 of 42 (permalink) Old 06-06-2009, 06:12 AM
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My limbs bigger than your limb.
Mine is truncated by a square root.

The biggest problems we are facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all and thatís what I intend to reverse.

~ Senator Barack H. Obama
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post #29 of 42 (permalink) Old 06-06-2009, 06:18 AM
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Mine is truncated by a square root.

We here at BWOT heard you lost your's in a freak accident at the Peach Pit.......
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post #30 of 42 (permalink) Old 06-06-2009, 06:29 AM
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We here at BWOT heard you lost your's in a freak accident at the Peach Pit.......
Excellent example of why rumors and facts are estranged cousins.

The biggest problems we are facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all and thatís what I intend to reverse.

~ Senator Barack H. Obama
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