And in Celebration of Higher Gas Prices - Page 2 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #11 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-13-2009, 09:28 PM
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crude is so pase.. why even keep bogging down in such outdated ideas?



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post #12 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-14-2009, 07:22 AM
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I look over books about the "Hubberts Curve and see we will need a different fuel in the future. Hubberts Curve" is a bell curve. we are said to be on the top of the bell curve as far as worldwide production and headed down, by 2012. There is always those who say the date is wrong, but the concept is correct. The USa is said to have reached the top production possible in the 1970's. The production numbers are due to what is recoverable at a reasonable cost.
T.Boone Pickens is predicting $400 a barrel in 10 years. That seems exaggerated to me, but none the less I think he is correct on 2 things. Oils will radically go up, and CNG (natural gas) is a great alternative. CNG burns cleaner by over 40%, is obtainable from your house gas line(if you have one), and is 130 octane for you performance nuts.
The reserves are easily estimated at a smooth 50+ years.
Maybe in 15 to 20 years we can start with Hydrogen, (zero emissions ), but in the mean time CNG looks promising.
Check out what Utah residents are doing. They are converting cars over at an alarming rate, since a GGE of CNG (= 1 gal gas) costs about $.60c. Not bad eh?
If we get the EPA off of our backs we can all do this (and you can even run dual fuel, Gas and CNG).

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post #13 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-14-2009, 01:03 PM
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So you are saying that this oil is not recoverable? Or are you just trying to be one of "those guys"?
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Well let's see...



In other words they are already drilling.

The issue I am highlighting here is the fact that we have oil reserves on land in our own country that are vast. Production will only increase.

That is unless someone decides to cut it off for political reasons much like ANWR.
I think the issue is the value of "Technically recoverable oil" with a finite supply. Using that 4Billion Barrel example you link at the top, and considering the US thirst for oil, if we could technically recover 100%, that is about a 200 DAY supply of oil [we use 20M barrels a day]. So the point is to move away from OIL as quickly as possible and quit being distracted by lite-brites and move to alternative sources.

Will those 4 Billion barrels be good, yes, but they will be better served in the plastics and durable goods industries instead of the internal combustion, burn it once and it's gone use. Drill baby drill is, as an end game a brain dead model and distracting from the move to alternative energy sources just adds to the total cost as we move forward.

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post #14 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-14-2009, 04:23 PM
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I think the issue is the value of "Technically recoverable oil" with a finite supply. Using that 4Billion Barrel example you link at the top, and considering the US thirst for oil, if we could technically recover 100%, that is about a 200 DAY supply of oil [we use 20M barrels a day]. So the point is to move away from OIL as quickly as possible and quit being distracted by lite-brites and move to alternative sources.

Will those 4 Billion barrels be good, yes, but they will be better served in the plastics and durable goods industries instead of the internal combustion, burn it once and it's gone use. Drill baby drill is, as an end game a brain dead model and distracting from the move to alternative energy sources just adds to the total cost as we move forward.
didn't I just say that in less words?
without all the fancy statistics and reasoning
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post #15 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-14-2009, 04:52 PM
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Agree McBear.

I especially agree on the alternative statement, and my point is if there is recoverable oil , it will get expensive. Example shale and sand tar oils were becoming an option at over $100 a barrel, and with gas prices touching (and exceeding) $4.oo a gallon.
The rule of thumb was if Gasoline ever reached $2.50 a gallon the search would make sense. Here we go again.

I really do like the CNG idea, and have investigated it quite thoroughly. It is the EPA that is the real holdup. Stupid as it may seem (and maybe a little under table stuff going on) CNG is 40% cleaner and they are making it near impossible to get engines approved. Certain ones are for GM and Ford, (as well as others) at extreme costs to the auto companies. If we decide to do it, we are restricted to cars past their useful life (100,000 miles or so) which makes the car of so little value that the conversion cost (~$5K) is out of hand. Why the cost? EPA. In Iraq, the conversion cost is $250.oo.
Some of us here in Illinois are looking hard at "dual fuel" and with the flip of a switch, you change fuels in motion. Fill at home for local running, and gasoline for the road trips.

Best part again IS THE OCTANE !!! Y E S !!!! 130 OCTANE !! Like Aviation fuel, from my old racing days. Remember 13 to 1 compression? Ohhh Yeeeaaahhhh!
Smoke em at the light!

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post #16 of 16 (permalink) Old 05-14-2009, 06:58 PM
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didn't I just say that in less words?
without all the fancy statistics and reasoning
Yes you did. I tend to read down from the top. I am four days behind on some threads so I missed some of the middles.

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