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post #11 of 48 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 11:56 AM
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I believe that no real bull market can happen unless the financials have a major role, and GS is the undisputed heavyweight champ in that space. Watching what goes on with GS is very likely to offer clues to what's happening and what is likely to happen in the market writ large. Looking at the GS daily I do see a bullish engulfing candle friday as well as a break above trend, and out of channel, and a move above the 200sma for the first time since may '08.

Since it's a good idea to look at different timeframes to confirm trends lets see what the weekly looks like.

I drew in a long termtrend line which in this timeframe is still downward, but we are coming to a meeting of the two trends. Should we cross over the longer term line at 129 I'd expect a run to the next resistance. The 50sma is at 126 on the weekly so expect significant resistance there should we approach it anytime soon. Since the trend and 50sma are potentially going to be the same this would be a significant breakthrough in my opinion. Additional resistance at 143 is pretty long term and a long way off.

I'd be a buyer here with close stops for short term trades, and if we do break through the 126-129 level I'd add twice what I would risk here.


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post #12 of 48 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 12:04 PM Thread Starter
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^^
I would think resistance at $120 for GS, what do you say?
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post #13 of 48 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 12:12 PM Thread Starter
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...or maybe we are about to witness a break
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post #14 of 48 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 12:20 PM
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I think today is a good flash but is not particularly indicative of a bull. More indicative of the start of their healing. They still have much of their resources making money [if 80% of their paper is perfectly clean] and the other 20% is rebuildable or acceptable losses].

Once they get through the stress test process, they will continue to regain footing. With new regulations folks will start investing in them again.

I am with you, I am long on them, not trying to grab short profits [although 20% days look good].

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post #15 of 48 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 12:26 PM Thread Starter
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Yes, I am long too but 20 and 25% is so tempting
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post #16 of 48 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 12:34 PM
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Yes, I am long too but 20 and 25% is so tempting
Well, when I jumped into AIG, BoA and JPMorgan I thought the first run was good but it keeps improving. AIG capped high at 430% but is still over 300% on the investment. Suddenly 25% doesn't seem that good. I just keep a sell order on it at 250% now, and will keep ratcheting that up if it keeps going up. And will be doing the same for the others today as they move up. That way I don't have to pay very tight attention to them.

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post #17 of 48 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 12:42 PM Thread Starter
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It's hard to look at it in an impersonal fashion. I thing I am going to unload then buy back when everyone is scared... the usual!
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post #18 of 48 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 01:14 PM
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^^
I would think resistance at $120 for GS, what do you say?
Short squeeeeeeezeeeeee... 2:00 pm to 3:00 pm EDT: 118.50 to 121.00.

When devils will the blackest sins put on, they do suggest, at first with heavenly shows - Othello
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post #19 of 48 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 01:14 PM
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It's hard to look at it in an impersonal fashion. I thing I am going to unload then buy back when everyone is scared... the usual!
You can also make very good money that way. Nothing wrong with 10X25%

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post #20 of 48 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 02:28 PM
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It's hard to look at it in an impersonal fashion. I thing I am going to unload then buy back when everyone is scared... the usual!
How's the cortisol level, DP ?

Remember you can't take it with you.
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