DOW will be back to 14000 - Page 2 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

View Poll Results: DOW will be back to 14000
In 1 year 0 0%
In 2 years 3 13.04%
In 5 years 13 56.52%
In 10 years 5 21.74%
Never 2 8.70%
Voters: 23. You may not vote on this poll

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post #11 of 27 (permalink) Old 03-10-2009, 01:59 PM
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And regarding the poll. I think caution is going to be in play for a while. We may or may not have a bottom, don't know how long we are going to scrap the bottom and I think it will take at least five years, once growth begins to build back 215%. If we actually rebuild infrastructure of the manufacturing sector to replace the construction/housing sector to provide employment for the 20 million workers that are finding displacement, that investment is going to spread wide but scrub high profits which slows down the growth of the Dow.

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post #12 of 27 (permalink) Old 03-10-2009, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
Other than the comment in red I agree. First we haven't had 60's era union contracts since the 80s. And second it would slam the middle class, which is the fat middle of the economic bell curve that pays all the taxes in this country. Redefining it might be somewhat awkward to the revenue flows of both Washington and the various states.

I like the Toxic Bank Idea more and more. It will allow all the really bad stuff to be micromanaged very strictly and the rest of the banking industry to just get back to business as it is suppose to be, regulated but functional.
Around 1 in 8 workers is a union member (16 million the Dept. of Labor says). Not all of them are in the UAW.

And if those idiots get wind that the UAW is fucking them in the ass, they may dissolve themselves without any government interference: Toyota workers in Kentucky plant made more than UAW members last year

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by John Neff on Jan 31st 2007 at 5:16PM

Last year was the first time that non-unionized workers at a foreign-owned assembly plant made more than members of the United Auto Workers union make on average in a year. The Detroit Free Press reveals in a very interesting article that Toyota paid out bonuses of $6,000 to $8,000 last year at its largest U.S. plant in Georgetown, KY. Combined with the base pay made by a non-union worker at the plant, that equates to $30/hour or $60,000/year based on a 2,000-hour work year. That is more than the $27/hour or $54,000 a UAW member made on average last year. Union workers, or course, hardly received any profit sharing bonuses last year due to the poor overall performance of the domestic automakers.

This isn't actually surprising, as a matter of fact it was bound to happen. In many instances, Toyota and other large foreign automakers operating assembly plants in the U.S. pay their workers near-UAW wages in an effort to dissuade them from unionizing. In a year when Toyota's sales have grown to record levels and the domestics are losing market share fast, it was inevitable that Toyota's big bonuses would put the pay of its assembly workers in the U.S. ahead of the UAW, which saw no bonuses last year and likely won't for a few. The lack of overtime hours was another hit to the UAW that dropped the pay for many of its members. In time, as the domestics (if the domestics?) recover and the big bonus checks are in the mail again, we expect the UAW's pay to again top that of any non-union assembly workers in the U.S.

We recommend reading the whole article written by Jason Roberson from the Free Press, as there's a lot of layers to dig through with this story.

[Source: Detroit Free Press]
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post #13 of 27 (permalink) Old 03-10-2009, 03:49 PM
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And regarding the poll. I think caution is going to be in play for a while. We may or may not have a bottom, don't know how long we are going to scrap the bottom and I think it will take at least five years, once growth begins to build back 215%. If we actually rebuild infrastructure of the manufacturing sector to replace the construction/housing sector to provide employment for the 20 million workers that are finding displacement, that investment is going to spread wide but scrub high profits which slows down the growth of the Dow.
You are correct. You could even replace the word caution with fear. Both have the same effect as fear drives caution. As the rest of the world is always quick to point out, the US has a short memory. We were the first to drop and will be the first to recover.
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post #14 of 27 (permalink) Old 03-10-2009, 05:12 PM
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Despite all the pressure of government intervention, bad moves, and sabotage from all the wannabes, the Dow has always kept up with the Jones'. So, why not 14,000? When? To predict this we must first know how many pieces of lumber are left to stick in the turning wheels.
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post #15 of 27 (permalink) Old 03-10-2009, 05:34 PM
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NOT until we get the hell out of other countries and stop the illegal occupation and the raping of their resources. We destroy countries but this time it has almost destroyed us in the process. We should learn from this while we still have time otherwise I see an end of the American Empire and I definitely see it headed in the same direction as Soviet Union with our States breaking up and separating into other countries. Furthermore, we have to let go of our bastard child, Israel. Then it will go higher than 14000!
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post #16 of 27 (permalink) Old 03-10-2009, 07:00 PM
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NOT until we get the hell out of other countries and stop the illegal occupation and the raping of their resources. We destroy countries but this time it has almost destroyed us in the process. We should learn from this while we still have time otherwise I see an end of the American Empire and I definitely see it headed in the same direction as Soviet Union with our States breaking up and separating into other countries. Furthermore, we have to let go of our bastard child, Israel. Then it will go higher than 14000!
You make two very good points. Right now Brazil is truly paranoid that the US is targeting it for its plethora of natural resources [the reason for the Obama photo and For Sale tattoo on the nude Samba dancer at Carnaval this year].

And one of the more specific triggers to the downfall of the Soviet Union was their foray into Afghanistan and their failure there.

As far as breaking up states of this country, Cascadia, I believe would be the first to go, though Alaska might beat it since their governor has had a sniff of National power. The question becomes, which Republican plays the part of James Buchanan?

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post #17 of 27 (permalink) Old 03-10-2009, 11:54 PM
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A very interesting conversation occurred while driving to the funeral yesterday. The question revolved around the economy, how this recession was in comparison to others.

I said that there are a bunch of folks who show charts and bring up numbers that try to show that this recession isn't "really" bigger, deeper or longer than others - even though we don't even know if we are on the bottom yet, how long we might stay there and exactly what vehicle we are going to use to build ourselves backup once we start growing again.

I said that, since housing is pretty much oversold that seems to be a long option, not a short one and manufacturing will take a bit of time to ramp up. Then we got into the investing question and a really big question wandered through my head.

I have been investing since I graduated highschool [long story]. I have been through five recessions, from the 73 through now. In each recession the big investor wisdom has always been, figure out the bottom and start piling money in as close to then as you can and ride it up. Braindead simple. I was taught a slight modification of that but that works well too.

In every recession the only ONE QUESTION that you asked when you started sniffing around was WHICH companies were going to perform the best as they climbed out. "Which horse to bet on out of the gate". This one is different in ONE major way. For the very first time in my lifetime I ask TWO QUESTIONS. Besides the obvious WHICH companies are going to perform the best as they climb out of the recession I now also ask which companies are going to SURVIVE. And not just the little ones. Fortune 200 companies where you have to honestly ask, will they make it through? GM, AIG, BoA, name that Airline, That is the fundamental difference in THIS recession and everyone that any of us have ever participated in.

Now when you place your bets, you don't only bet if your horse will win, place or show, you bet if it will make it around the track. THAT adds a new dimension and skillset to the game.

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post #18 of 27 (permalink) Old 03-11-2009, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Cancer_Researcher View Post
NOT until we get the hell out of other countries and stop the illegal occupation and the raping of their resources. We destroy countries but this time it has almost destroyed us in the process. We should learn from this while we still have time otherwise I see an end of the American Empire and I definitely see it headed in the same direction as Soviet Union with our States breaking up and separating into other countries. Furthermore, we have to let go of our bastard child, Israel. Then it will go higher than 14000!
For living in the City of Brotherly Love I feel too much hostility. You probably need to see Don Rickles to calm down. But if you don't like my advise, the world is big and you have a lot of countries left to hate. In this last instance think two magic words: who cares!
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post #19 of 27 (permalink) Old 03-11-2009, 02:58 PM
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NOT until we get the hell out of other countries and stop the illegal occupation and the raping of their resources. We destroy countries but this time it has almost destroyed us in the process. We should learn from this while we still have time otherwise I see an end of the American Empire and I definitely see it headed in the same direction as Soviet Union with our States breaking up and separating into other countries. Furthermore, we have to let go of our bastard child, Israel. Then it will go higher than 14000!
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For living in the City of Brotherly Love I feel too much hostility. You probably need to see Don Rickles to calm down. But if you don't like my advise, the world is big and you have a lot of countries left to hate. In this last instance think two magic words: who cares!
He said nothing about hating any country.

He is dead correct that we, as a country have to readdress our priorities and quit abusing the resources of others and quit acting as if we are in charge of the world. We are not.

You are thinking old school NeoCon, where you consider those who disagree with your position to be UnAmerican and can be told to "get out". Well, that party left in January. It is a decidedly MINORITY view.

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post #20 of 27 (permalink) Old 03-11-2009, 03:12 PM
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Market is up, not by much, but it is up two days in a row, the first time in months. I could be getting more optimistic.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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