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post #111 of 158 (permalink) Old 01-29-2009, 11:35 PM
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Originally Posted by TNTRower View Post
My intepretation of the numbers is that Manufacturing (like everything else) has cycles. It is currently in a downward cycle but should bottom out and come back up like every other since 1948.

What do you think it means?
First, it is a relative index, relative to the previous month to two quarters and not much more. Second, it just measures change of the aggregate. To glean a qualitative analysis you would have to pull monthly PMI reports for all 60 years. And then you could only do so one sector at a time. As an example, one of the sectors is FOOD. The variables in that sector from 1948 to 2008 include the doubling of US population, changes in farm practices, import of food, the interstate system, air conditioned trucks/trains. So a trend is nearly impossible. Its part in the AGGREGATE that you see in that one chart is an unknown quantity.

Also, the PMI does not take into account, in the manufacturing sector such things as subsystem import, robotics and other changes to the measuring matrix as the numbers have never been intended to be used over a few quarters for trending.

There is good information in that number. It shows just how bad a given economy is and gives an indication of how bad it is likely to be by viewing the trending of six months or so of the data. A look at all of 2008 would be an example. You can use that methodology to snapshot how other recessions or growth spurts were reflected. Usually you can parallel these numbers with the Consumer Confidence numbers. Though the CCI numbers will usually lag two or three months.

Now the big number pattern to watch is the GDP and it comes out at 8:30EST Friday. But that's another post.

There is nothing wrong with PMI numbers, I have been a member of ISM since 1991 and use their data often. It is just that those specific numbers don't reflect the information you are hunting. I will try and find the appropriate charts tomorrow from Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis. I will provide you links with the raw data so you can glean the information yourself. I really don't have a desire to spin it. I might be accused of spinning politics but I never spin data.

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post #112 of 158 (permalink) Old 01-30-2009, 12:22 AM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
First, it is a relative index, relative to the previous month to two quarters and not much more. Second, it just measures change of the aggregate. To glean a qualitative analysis you would have to pull monthly PMI reports for all 60 years. And then you could only do so one sector at a time. As an example, one of the sectors is FOOD. The variables in that sector from 1948 to 2008 include the doubling of US population, changes in farm practices, import of food, the interstate system, air conditioned trucks/trains. So a trend is nearly impossible. Its part in the AGGREGATE that you see in that one chart is an unknown quantity.

Also, the PMI does not take into account, in the manufacturing sector such things as subsystem import, robotics and other changes to the measuring matrix as the numbers have never been intended to be used over a few quarters for trending.

There is good information in that number. It shows just how bad a given economy is and gives an indication of how bad it is likely to be by viewing the trending of six months or so of the data. A look at all of 2008 would be an example. You can use that methodology to snapshot how other recessions or growth spurts were reflected. Usually you can parallel these numbers with the Consumer Confidence numbers. Though the CCI numbers will usually lag two or three months.

Now the big number pattern to watch is the GDP and it comes out at 8:30EST Friday. But that's another post.

There is nothing wrong with PMI numbers, I have been a member of ISM since 1991 and use their data often. It is just that those specific numbers don't reflect the information you are hunting. I will try and find the appropriate charts tomorrow from Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis. I will provide you links with the raw data so you can glean the information yourself. I really don't have a desire to spin it. I might be accused of spinning politics but I never spin data.

The monthly numbers were in the link that I posted. The averages I posted were the yearly averages of the monthly numbers so I think I have your objection covered.

At any rate the numbers are valid in the sense that it is the Manufacturing Index and there is no trend either down or up. All it shows is the normal cycle. Including the Outsourcing that is "destroying" American Manufacturing.

Quite frankly the numbers are in a historical context (from 1948) and they don't support the idea that Offshoring/Ousourcing are having that great of an effect on the manufacturing sector.

Who's John Galt.

"Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes" - Virgil, The Aeneid, Book 2

If the Arabs put down their weapons today, there would be no more violence. If the Jews put down their weapons today, there would be no more Israel. --Benjamin Netayahu
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post #113 of 158 (permalink) Old 01-30-2009, 12:48 AM
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post #114 of 158 (permalink) Old 01-30-2009, 01:00 AM
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Trade deficits and manufacturing employment

Trade deficits and manufacturing employment



A weekly presentation of downloadable charts and short analyses designed to graphically illustrate important economic issues. Updated every Wednesday. [See Snapshots Archive.]

Snapshot for November 30, 2005.

Trade deficits and manufacturing employment
Production in the United States in recent years has become more and more oriented toward non-traded goods (e.g., residential housing investment and commercial construction) and away from traded goods (e.g., like manufacturing, which supplies roughly three-quarters of U.S. traded goods).

This shift has led to ballooning trade deficits in manufactured goods, and these trade deficits have led directly to large-scale job loss in this sector. Manufacturing employment in 2004 reached its lowest level since 1950 (14.3 million jobs). Commentators often claim that this shedding of manufacturing jobs is a long-run (and hence implicitly benign) phenomenon.

Unfortunately, it is not.

Between 1965 and 2000, manufacturing employment never dipped below 16.5 million. The manufacturing sector's share of employment in the overall economy shrank over time, as net job creation happened mostly in other sectors, but the level (that is, the actual number) of manufacturing jobs, was generally stable.

Between 2000 and 2004, manufacturing dropped 3 million jobs (a 17% decline), while the trade deficit in manufactured goods rose by $164 billion (a 42% increase). This rise in the trade deficit means that an increasing share of domestic demand for manufacturing output is satisfied by foreign rather than domestic producers. The ratio of domestic output to domestic demand has fallen from 86% in 2000 to 80% in 2004. Between 1977 and 2000, this ratio averaged 95%. In other words, the manufacturing trade deficit has risen from a 1977-2000 average of 5% of domestic demand to 20% of demand by 2004. This rise coincides directly with the hemorrhaging manufacturing employment over this period, as is shown in the chart below.

Manufacturing employment and the ratio of U.S. output to demand

It is often claimed that declines in manufacturing employment stem entirely from productivity growth. However, rapid productivity growth is the norm, not the exception, in manufacturing. What is new about the manufacturing job crisis of the last four years is the sharp downturn in the ratio of domestic production to demand. While productivity growth has played a role in manufacturing job loss, rising trade deficits have been dismissed by far too many economists and policy makers. To be clear, the U.S. does not need all domestic demand to be satisfied only by domestic production, but it does need to move toward balance in manufactured imports and exports to keep from losing even more good paying manufacturing jobs.

For the United States to begin, as it must, to work its way out of its enormous trade deficit, it will require more employment in the manufacturing sector. The sooner, the better.

This week's Snapshot was written by EPI economist L. Josh Bivens.

Check out the archive for past Economic Snapshots.
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post #115 of 158 (permalink) Old 01-30-2009, 07:08 AM
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OK, I've decided that TNT is actually Ted Turner. My work here is done.

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If it helps America through it's current crisis, I say go ahead! We can take it, after all we're Canadian!

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post #116 of 158 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 05:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Jetjok View Post
International law is a set of standards, agreed upon by a majority of interested countries, which govern the way we as nations act and react. Yes, each nation must look out for its own well-being, but that said, there needs to be some overall direction in how we as a group (world) act, for the betterment of the planet.
Would it be fair to presume you approve of the Geneva Convention for prisoners of war?

The US has blatantly disregarded the convention in Iraq, Guantanamo Bay and many others; it has also passed a law making it legal to invade Holland in the event that any of your government are prosecuted in the War Crimes Tribunals in the Hague.

Will you then accept others treating captured americans with equal disregard for international standards?

Rules for others but not for yourselves. Hypocrisy.

RH
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post #117 of 158 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 05:46 AM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Rovinghawk View Post
Would it be fair to presume you approve of the Geneva Convention for prisoners of war?

The US has blatantly disregarded the convention in Iraq, Guantanamo Bay and many others; it has also passed a law making it legal to invade Holland in the event that any of your government are prosecuted in the War Crimes Tribunals in the Hague.

Will you then accept others treating captured americans with equal disregard for international standards?

Rules for others but not for yourselves. Hypocrisy.

RH
You had me thinking you were rational, misguided, but still rational right up to the point of

"passed a law making it legal to invade Holland in the event that any of your government are prosecuted in the War Crimes Tribunals in the Hague."

We have passed some pretty bad laws in our country's history, but I would like to see what you are speaking of specifically.

Until such time you are right up there with "Black Helicopter" crowd.

Who's John Galt.

"Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes" - Virgil, The Aeneid, Book 2

If the Arabs put down their weapons today, there would be no more violence. If the Jews put down their weapons today, there would be no more Israel. --Benjamin Netayahu
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post #118 of 158 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted by TNTRower View Post

We have passed some pretty bad laws in our country's history, but I would like to see what you are speaking of specifically.


Three fucking clicks. Do you research anything?

This is why the PFA won't be leaving US soil any time soon.



American Service-Members' Protection Act
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The American Service-Members' Protection Act (ASPA) is a United States federal law introduced by US Senator Jesse Helms as an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act and passed in August 2002 by Congress. The stated purpose of the amendment was "to protect United States military personnel and other elected and appointed officials of the United States government against criminal prosecution by an international criminal court to which the United States is not party".

It authorizes the President to use “all means necessary and appropriate to bring about the release of any US or allied personnel being detained or imprisoned by, on behalf of, or at the request of the International Criminal Court”. This has led opponents of the act to call it "The Hague Invasion Act".[1][2]

The Act prohibits federal, state and local governments and agencies (including courts and law enforcement agencies) from assisting the Court. For example, it prohibits the extradition of any person from the United States to the Court; it prohibits the transfer of classified national security information and law enforcement information to the Court; and it prohibits agents of the Court from conducting investigations in the United States.

The Act also prohibits U.S. military aid to countries that are party to the Court. However, exceptions are allowed for aid to NATO members, major non-NATO allies, Taiwan, and countries which have entered into “Article 98 agreements”, agreeing not to hand over U.S. nationals to the Court. Furthermore, the President may waive this prohibition where he determines that to do so is “important to the national interest of the United States”.




Not that an invasion is credible, but 'all means necessary' is pretty much a blank check. Or would have been considered as such by the PFA.
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post #119 of 158 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 09:50 AM
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TNT, just admit that you have been owned on this subject and no one will think less of you. It's easy!
You are not in the same league as milfy or multipurpose so don't wither that respect away with an argument that you have lost.
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post #120 of 158 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by TNTRower View Post
The monthly numbers were in the link that I posted. The averages I posted were the yearly averages of the monthly numbers so I think I have your objection covered.

At any rate the numbers are valid in the sense that it is the Manufacturing Index and there is no trend either down or up. All it shows is the normal cycle. Including the Outsourcing that is "destroying" American Manufacturing.

Quite frankly the numbers are in a historical context (from 1948) and they don't support the idea that Offshoring/Ousourcing are having that great of an effect on the manufacturing sector.
You don't understand that index at all. It is ONLY relative to its previous few months. You can't use the monthly or annual numbers to provide a long term trending analysis, no matter how hard you try, it simply lacks the appropriate data to make that analysis. You see numbers for a bunch of years and assume they can be tied together. In the case of PMI, that is just not the case.

The PMI numbers DO NOT show a normal cycle [or an abnormal cycle] and they do not form an historical context, they are just historical.

You missed the point on the Johnson County example, choosing to look at it as an isolated incident instead of understanding how the data of the jobs flow.

Let's try again.
I worked a project with Square D Company. It was my third project and we were doing a cost analysis of realignment of the manufacturing supply flow.

Steel for the fuse boxes was coming from China. Screws were coming from India. Breaker subassemblies from Columbia, wiring from China. All was to be shipped to the plants in Lexington, Cedar Rapids and Miami for final assembly. I asked a really simple question that just about got me fired from the project on the spot. "Can we at least order the "MADE WITH PRIDE IN THE USA" stickers from an American printing company?

So you don't get lost on this one, the point is, ALL the labor monies were shipped offshore except for the 104 minutes it takes to actually assemble the breaker boxes in the US. All of the materials monies went offshore except for the packaging [cardboard shipping box], two UL required parts and the stickers.

They closed two of the lines the two years later, eliminating that annoying "assembly" bottleneck and moved it to China.

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