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post #1 of 42 (permalink) Old 12-31-2008, 09:07 AM Thread Starter
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Wall Street strategists foresee 2009 rebound

5 stock experts foresee 2009 rebound

NEW YORK — With the stock market on track for its worst year since 1931, Wall Street strategists are predicting a rebound in 2009.
A review of year-end '09 targets for the Standard & Poor's 500 index by five top market strategists found that nearly all expect double-digit percentage gains, despite another year of sharp swings. The most bullish projections call for a 24% gain from current levels.

Wall Street's gurus, however, were also bullish heading into 2008. While most predicted a stormy first half, none forecast the financial hurricane that engulfed investors. The S&P 500 is down 39.3% in 2008, the worst since a 47.1% drop in 1931, S&P says.

But predicting a rebound may be based on more than hope. Stocks have snapped back sharply after past historic declines. After stocks bottomed out after an 89.2% drop in July 1932, for example, the Dow Jones industrials rallied 93.9% the next two months, Dow Jones Indexes says.

Similarly, the S&P 500 rebounded 25.2% in 1938 after falling 38.6% in 1937, S&P says. After the 2000-02 bear market bottomed, the S&P 500 rebounded 26.4% in 2003.

One caveat: The S&P 500 fell 15.2% in 1932 after its record 1931 decline.

The strategists are betting on:

•An economic recovery. At some point after mid-2009, a rebound should occur, says Thomas Lee, U.S. equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase. But Lee says investors shouldn't rush back into stocks immediately.

He expects a rally early in the year on initial optimism about the bailout plans. Then he expects a pullback because of headwinds such as weak earnings. He says tailwinds such as lower gasoline prices, fiscal stimulus and a stabilization of the housing market will help stocks by year's end.

•Government stimulus plans. "The size of the global policy response to stabilize both the financial system and the growth outlook is virtually unprecedented," writes Abhijit Chakrabortti, strategist at Morgan Stanley.

•A repeat of history. "When this bear market ends, be prepared for a fast and furious partial recovery," S&P's chief investment strategist Sam Stovall writes in his 2009 outlook. Historically, the S&P 500 has recouped, on average, 33% of its bear market losses 40 days after a bottom.

5 stock experts foresee 2009 rebound - USATODAY.com

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post #2 of 42 (permalink) Old 12-31-2008, 09:28 AM
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As I mentioned in your other rosy scenario thread, the effects of the crap going on in the financial markets is just now being felt in the employment markets, and as unemployment continues it's march to 10% of the workforce, business failures, especially small business failures, will begin to rise, causing another downturn cycle. I think we'll start seeing some improvement late in 2009 as Obama's employment-focused stimulus package increases overall employment and as continued low energy prices benefit the economy. My real question will be on whether or not we see a see-saw economy due to the energy problems we face, as an improved economy here increases world wide energy demand, causing price spikes.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #3 of 42 (permalink) Old 12-31-2008, 09:35 AM Thread Starter
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Those must by your brains she's holding onto there...

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post #4 of 42 (permalink) Old 12-31-2008, 09:50 AM
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Those must by your brains she's holding onto there...

You got to admit, they are big and you know what they say about a man with big brains.............
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post #5 of 42 (permalink) Old 12-31-2008, 10:12 AM Thread Starter
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You got to admit, they are big and you know what they say about a man with big brains.............
...that they are boobs?

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post #6 of 42 (permalink) Old 12-31-2008, 10:14 AM
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jesus, Jayhawk, you've got so much bullshit to throw you need two threads to do it.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #7 of 42 (permalink) Old 12-31-2008, 10:34 AM
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jesus, Jayhawk, you've got so much bullshit to throw you need two threads to do it.

True FTL, but he has not even got a clue............
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post #8 of 42 (permalink) Old 12-31-2008, 01:04 PM
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Ah yes, two threads and not a single clue...

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #9 of 42 (permalink) Old 12-31-2008, 01:14 PM Thread Starter
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Two guys w/out a single brain between them...

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post #10 of 42 (permalink) Old 12-31-2008, 01:24 PM
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Stupid is as stupid does, Jayhawk.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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