Is the USA preparing for war with Iran - Page 2 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #11 of 53 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 07:46 PM
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Here is one doomsday scenario from someone claiming to be a consultant for the aerospace companies:

The Iran War - How It Will Begin

The Iran War - How
It Will Begin
By The Earl of Stirling
9-6-8

I have served as a consultant to three very high tech aerospace firms. My specialty is conceptualizing advanced warfare especially as it relates to new cutting edge advanced weapon systems. What I see unfolding with a war on Iran is the most frightening set of circumstances I have ever seen; and I have been involved in advanced theoretical weaponry strategy and design for over 20 years.

Sometime in the weeks to months ahead, there will be a war launched against Iran. The war may be started by Israel, or by the United States, or by a NATO/EU/US embargo, or by some 'false flag' attack. What matters is that it will begin; and where it will take the world.

Regardless if the war begins with a limited number of air strikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets, or if an all-out several thousand target attack begins from day one the probabilities of the war becoming a major regional war within 48 hours are 90% or higher.

The Iranians will simply not allow Israeli and/or American military forces to attack its territory without a major response. Any significant counter-attack on Israel and/or American regional bases will trigger a much greater counter-response.

The Iranians have equipped and paid for, and trained, a massive unguided rocket and guided missile force in Lebanon (the largest such force in human history). These missiles are in-place as a MAD force (a MAD ~ mutually assured destruction ~ force is one that is a doomsday force; established to prevent the use of overwhelming military force by allowing a return "punch" of overwhelming military destructive force upon one's enemy). The total number of missiles and rockets in Lebanon are variously estimated at between 40,000 and 110,000. While many are unguided Katyusha rockets, many are longer ranged guided missiles. All are operated by Hezbollah Special Forces launch teams.

The Hezbollah Special Forces are in-effect a highly trained and well-equipped Iranian commando force of at least a Brigade in size. They man and protect a large number of mostly unguided and rather crude rockets, generally Katyusha 122mm artillery rockets with a 19 mile/30km range and capable of delivering approximately 66 pounds/30kg of warheads. Additionally, Hezbollah are known to possess a considerable number of more advanced and longer range missiles. During the 2006 war Hezbollah fired approximately 4,000 rockets (95% of which were Katyshas) all utilizing only "dumb" high explosive warheads. Some Iranian build and supplied Fajr-3 and Ra'ad 1 liquid-fueled missiles were also fired. It is believed that the larger and longer range missiles are directly under the control of Syrian and Iranian officers.

The combination of short to medium range rockets and guided missiles in Lebanon, and the longer range guided missiles in Syria, the smaller number of rockets and missiles in the West Bank and Gaza, and the longer range guided missiles in Iran present a massive throw weight of warheads aimed at Israel.

The 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War (called the Second Lebanon War in Israel) was an attempt by Israel at eliminating the MAD counter-force in Lebanon. It was an attempt that failed. The Syrians had purchased (and supplied to Hezbollah) a large number of very nasty, relatively low cost Russian AT-14 Kornet solid fuel anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) and the Iranian trained Hezbollah commandos dug in massive numbers of concrete bunkers and firing positions. After over 50 Merkava main battle tanks were hit, and the high tech American made warplanes and pinpoint weapons proved ineffective, the handwriting was on the wall. Either use neutron bombs or lose a large number of Israeli solders to remove the Hezbollah threat; or declare peace and walk away for the time being ~ the Israelis chose the latter.

It now appears that Israel has given up on the idea of a ground assault to remove the many rocket and missile launchers in Lebanon. A senior Israeli general has resigned with the complaint that the Army is not training sufficiently to fight in Lebanon. The alternative is the use of FAE (fuel air explosive) technology weapons and neutron bombs (a type of nuclear weapon that produces a higher short term radiological output and less blast output than normal nuclear weapons).

Any use of such WMD by the Israeli Army on the Hezbollah forces in Lebanon will likely automatically trigger the use of WMD warheads on whatever rockets/missiles remain operational (if their use has not already been authorized due to the nature and scope of Israeli and/or American attacks on Iran).

The bottom line of this is that Israel will face a truly massive number of rockets and missiles from Lebanon with radiological, chemical, biological and FAE weapons of mass destruction warheads. Additionally, a sizable number of such weapons/warheads will be fired from Gaza and the West Bank. The Syrians will be using larger more accurate guided missiles to shower WMD upon Israel as will the Iranians. To counter this, the Israelis will be using their Green Pine Radar system and a combination of Israeli and American anti-missile missiles. They will have good success in knocking down many incoming missiles but the sheer number of incoming weapons will totally overload all defensive measures.

Large parts of Israel will be contaminated with radiation with extremely long half-lives (many tens of thousands of years in some cases), with a mix of chemical, FAE, and biological nightmares thrown in for good measure. Total deaths will amount to one-third to one-half of the Israeli population with a large additional number being injured.

The Israeli response will be the nuclear annihilation of Syria, Iran, and parts of Lebanon with many tens of millions killed. Expect to see every city of any size destroyed. There will be insufficient people left in Syria, Iran, and large parts of Lebanon to even bury the dead. Radiation will spread around the world from the nuclear bombs.

Iranian sleeper teams in North America and western Europe will begin to "seed" the populations of these areas with a number (perhaps in the several dozens) of different man made killer viruses. People in movie theaters, churches, synagogues, shopping malls, subway stations, airports, etc., will be exposed without anyone knowing it at the time, to these advanced biowar viruses. About nine to ten days later the computer reporting systems in the western countries will begin to report back strange illnesses. That will trigger a host of measures to contain the advanced biowar viruses but it will simply be too late to prevent a massive outbreak of horrific illnesses. International travel and trade will effectively stop. People will be ordered to stay home from work and school with only critical job holders being allowed on the streets. Hospitals will be overcome with sick and dying people of all ages. The medical community will be among the first to die off. Where temporary hospitals are established in school gyms and other areas, the cross infection of several different genetically engineered viruses will ensure 100% morality of everyone in the temporary hospitals.

In the event that the neo-con nations have sought to expand the Georgia war by new attacks on Russian forces or by creating some naval incident in the Black Sea the probabilities of an quick expansion into a all-out Third World War involving Russian and NATO nuclear weapons will be at approximately 50%. Even without a global total war being initiated, Russia is apt to "sweep" the Black Sea of NATO ships with considerable loss of life on both sides.

The world will be in the worst economic depression in history as global trade will be halted for at least several months due to fears of the spread of the various advanced biowar viruses. If Israel releases the Arab specific designer advanced biowar viruses, that many claim she has, the Saudis are apt to fire their Chinese IRBMs (intermediate range ballistic missiles) and send their very well equipped air force against Israel with the small number of nuclear weapons that they possess (they have funded the Pakistani nuclear weapon program and have several Pakistani made nuclear devices). Of course, what is left of the Israeli forces will respond with additional nuclear attacks, this time on Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations for good measure.

In North America and western Europe the total number of civilians, after two months of advanced biowar illnesses, is apt to be at least a third of the population ~ a total death count of well over 200 million persons. Despite the best efforts of all nations, the man engineered super killer mutant viruses will spread throughout the world causing total numbers of perhaps a billion or more to die.

The after effect of all of this may well lead to even more war as the non-neo-con nations will be so incensed at the massive lost of life of their citizens that total global war may be unstoppable.

Stirling
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post #12 of 53 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 07:47 PM
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It is hard to believe someone as time proven dysfunctional as W. wouldn't try something devastating before he leaves.
Remember, he is trying to build a Legacy now. Rolling the dice and hitting snake eyes AGAIN would eliminate any possible chance of keeping James Buchanan on the bottom of the list.

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post #13 of 53 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 07:49 PM
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Let's be a little realistic, Shane. If Bush happened to learn that on Dec 31, Iran or any other country, planned to launch an ICBM onto the west coast, you'd probably be a little miffed that Bush left it to January 21 after Obama was inaugurated for a military response.
Specific plans are different than "will have a potential threat sometime in the future..."

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post #14 of 53 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 07:50 PM
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@ Maine Coon - More reasons we shouldn't be involved in any fashion.
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post #15 of 53 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 07:51 PM
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Israel will do whatever it thinks is good for Israel, we will just have to go along... as usual
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post #16 of 53 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 07:54 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
Remember, he is trying to build a Legacy now. Rolling the dice and hitting snake eyes AGAIN would eliminate any possible chance of keeping James Buchanan on the bottom of the list.
His aw shucks persona hides a megalomania attitude in my estimation judging from his complete past. He has lived his whole life as an outcast and a know it all. I don't think a proper legacy would mean as much as a sort of radical martyr reputation. His grasp on reality does not appear that firm.
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post #17 of 53 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 07:54 PM
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@ Maine Coon - More reasons we shouldn't be involved in any fashion.
I am NOT saying that we should.

But it might happen even without our involvement.

As Bear said, it can be started with the suitcase bomb once Iran has it.

What do you think Israel's response will be?
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post #18 of 53 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 07:59 PM
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Originally Posted by maine_coon View Post
I am NOT saying that we should.

But it might happen even without our involvement.

As Bear said, it can be started with the suitcase bomb once Iran has it.

What do you think Israel's response will be?
Make it our problem
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post #19 of 53 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 08:05 PM
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Originally Posted by maine_coon View Post
I am NOT saying that we should.

But it might happen even without our involvement.

As Bear said, it can be started with the suitcase bomb once Iran has it.

What do you think Israel's response will be?
I think that whoever wrote that [The Earl of Stirling???] likes doomsday prophesy.

The article starts off illogically and the rest is part of everyone's standard "oh shit" list of worst case scenario.

The premise starts: "Sometime in the weeks to months ahead, there will be a war launched against Iran. The war may be started by Israel, or by the United States, or by a NATO/EU/US embargo, or by some 'false flag' attack. What matters is that it will begin; and where it will take the world."

WHY?

The most critical part of the issue, the very fuel that would propagate every cascading response is missing.



As for what Israel's response to a suitcase bomb would be, it would really depend on several factors. What was our response to 9/11? It was a measured, logical response toward Afghanistan, ONCE we had information that AQ and Taliban were involved. [now the illogical leap into Iraq just lacks all sensible explanation.]

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post #20 of 53 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 08:08 PM
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Pentagon chief: War with Iran would be 'disastrous' - Haaretz - Israel News

Pentagon chief: War with Iran would be 'disastrous'

By Amir Oren, Haaretz Correspondent

Tags: U.S., Iran, Israel

A war with Iran would be "disastrous on a number of levels," according to U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.

In an article appearing in the latest issue of Parameters, the U.S. Army War College quarterly, Gates wrote that with the army already bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, "another war in the Middle East is the last thing we need" - despite the fact that Iran "supports terrorism," is "a destabilizing force throughout the Middle East and Southwest Asia and, in my judgment, is hell-bent on acquiring nuclear weapons."

Nevertheless, he continued, "the military option must be kept on the table, given the destabilizing policies of the regime and the risks inherent in a future Iranian nuclear threat, either directly or through nuclear proliferation."
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Gates offered these remarks on Iran as commentary on how to apply an axiom uttered by General Fox Connor in the early 20th century: "Never fight unless you have to." But this is not the first time he has warned against war with Iran; he also did so in a speech at West Point, the U.S. military academy, three months ago. The current article is based on that speech.

Any statement by Gates bears special importance because Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential hopeful who generally opposes the current administration's foreign and defense policy, has praised Gates lavishly and even hinted that he might ask him to retain his post under an Obama presidency.

Meanwhile, in another document bearing his signature that is due to be published soon, the 2008 National Defense Strategy, Gates omits Israel from the list of the United States' main allies.

The National Defense Strategy is an official document that reflects the secretary's directives to the armed forces. It replaces the version issued in 2005 by Gates' predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld. Although Gates signed off on the document about a month ago, it has yet to be published officially; however, a copy appears on the Inside Defense Web site.

In this document, too, Gates wrote that Iran's support for terror, efforts to undermine the nascent democracies in Iraq and Afghanistan and pursuit of nuclear weapons constitute a serious challenge to the security of the region ¬ one that U.S. policy must address.

However, he also used the document to discuss America's allies.

"Our closest allies - the U.K., Australia, and Canada. Other long standing alliances NATO, Japan and South Korea foremost among them. We will work to expand and strengthen other relationships, including with India," the document states.

But Israel, which has been listed in other documents as an important U.S. ally, does not appear in this document at all.

The possibility that Gates might retain his post should Obama win the presidency in November emerged from an interview that the Democratic candidate gave to Defense News earlier this month.

"Secretary Gates has brought a level of realism and professionalism and planning to the job that is worthy of praise," the publication quoted Obama as saying. "But whether that means he would continue in that position, or would even want to, I think that's something that will be determined later. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself."
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