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Date registered: Apr 2004
Location: The BlueGrass State
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Originally Posted by bottomline1 View Post
Now, as for what is a strong foundation, we can look at several factors. Here are just four of them.
- Longterm strength of the dollar against foreign currencies.
- International Trade balance
- Strength of manufacturing
- Strength of labor force
Looking at the last of those first, we see a couple of things and also see that the four of them link intrinsically.
From 1960 to 2000 the percentage of the available workforce which worked grew from 58.24% to a high in 2000 of 67.25% with the only dip being in 1990-1992 which was .3%. This is very indicative of an expanding economy and an expanding manufacturing and service base. From 2000 to 2008, that number dropped below 66% which, for the first time in modern American economics is an extended contraction of the American Workforce. [All numbers BLS @ bls.gov]. A 1.25% contraction is right at 2 MILLION reduction of workforce.
I went through notes and have over a dozen possible examples of economic foundation examples. Everything from manufacturing to trade to debt ratios to unemployment actuals to number of people on foodstamps [just went to 30 Million this month by the way -10% of ALL Americans].
I get much of my current data from the Institute of Supply Management of which I have been a member since 1991. They are the folks who provide the Purchasing Managers Index and covers both manufacturing and non manufacturing statistics for the entire US Economy. Note that October's number at 38.9 is the worst since January and Feb 1982 and Jan. 1991 [noticing a pattern?]. As a hint, the lower the number the worst the foundation of the economy.
Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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