Surely A Large Human
Date registered: Jun 2006
Vehicle: '08 C219
Location: Between Earth and Mars
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Quoted: 482 Post(s)
A Thought About The President and the Economy
I think it's fair to imply that the economy is largely fueled by individual confidence - essentially, by emotion. It's true of consumption, it's true of savings and investments. There's seldom any logic behind vast swings in the markets
There are a lot, lot of people like us here. VERY invested, emotionally, in the outcome of this election.
Ask yourself this - when you've really been excited about a candidate, voted for them, and they won, did that not have a positive effect on your attitude? Didn't you ride the "coattails" of that victory so to speak, for at least a little while?
Let's assume for a moment not just that Obama wins, which everyone assumes he will, but that he does so convincingly.
Think about all of the people who, for the first time, are participating in this process. What if most of them feel like they picked the winner? What if you multiply that feeling of "Yes!", and the enthusiasm surrounding the promise of the man, and multiplied it by 75 to 85 million?
I remain hopeful for the economy, and have for some time, because it's a fluid thing. It's very, very dependent upon carbon based life forms - sentient ones at that - having a feeling of positivity, optimism, confidence, and certainty in order to function favorably to everyone involved. Multiply a change in those attributes for the better, by a huge number of people, and it's bound to have an equally positive effect on the world around them.
We'll see, of course. And yes, it's a double-edged sword; surely there will be some contraction by the people who backed the loser, because they feel (rightly or otherwise) that their guy was going to be better for the nation than the other one. It's one of the reasons assault weapon sales were up dramatically in the past few months - emotional buying, not based in logic.
Being an economist is a lot like being a weatherman. You get paid for observing, and cooking up theories and models in a feeble attempt to predict the unpredictable, and when something "unexpected" happens that sends them all to shit, you still have a job...at the end of the day, you're only marginally better at what you do than the guy who puts his arm out the window. Which is all to say, I don't hold a lot of faith in what any of them have to say. Anybody can look in the rear view mirror; some will see more detail than others. Nobody can predict what's around the bend.