Drudge is bannering a false headline. Is he nuts? - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 11 (permalink) Old 10-31-2008, 09:37 PM Thread Starter
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Drudge is bannering a false headline. Is he nuts?

Jesus, is the koolaid kicking in? What gives? And no links on Drudge's wild claim? Are they trying to imagine themselves into winning?

DRUDGE REPORT 2009®

Zogby International

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #2 of 11 (permalink) Old 10-31-2008, 09:42 PM
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JayHaXor can't be that smart.......
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post #3 of 11 (permalink) Old 10-31-2008, 10:18 PM
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Well FOX has been doing it for the last month.................
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post #4 of 11 (permalink) Old 10-31-2008, 11:49 PM
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From FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM explaining this. Nate is a PhD pollster who does nothing but analyze polling data. He also doesn't "sell" his information to various clients like the for profit firms.

Oh yeah, and you don't want to get into a statistics swordfight with him either.


Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

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post #5 of 11 (permalink) Old 10-31-2008, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

After Obama is elected I feel that there will be a few posters here will have problems with getting their poles to move, fear will be all that they have on their mind...........
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post #6 of 11 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 10:03 AM
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I love how Kookbergers panic every time McCain gets a lead in the polls! It's a hoot!!

Don't believe everything you think
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post #7 of 11 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted by FeelTheLove View Post
Jesus, is the koolaid kicking in? What gives? And no links on Drudge's wild claim? Are they trying to imagine themselves into winning?

DRUDGE REPORT 2009®

Zogby International
No you just do not understand polling. Go take a stats class. Or at least PM McBear. He understands how stats work.

I could explain it to you but you wouldn't listen.

Who's John Galt.

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post #8 of 11 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 11:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Jayhawk View Post
I love how Kookbergers panic every time McCain gets a lead in the polls! It's a hoot!!

*YOU* won't be hooting on November 5.

Obama will take it in a landslide

Jim
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post #9 of 11 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 12:07 PM
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^ And his first action in office will be to send his homeless brother to round up the homeless buddies, fly to Kansas, and give a good old fashioned gang-porking to Jayhawk's unwilling dirty ashtray.
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post #10 of 11 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by TNTRower View Post
No you just do not understand polling. Go take a stats class. Or at least PM McBear. He understands how stats work.

I could explain it to you but you wouldn't listen.
I think that is the point. If you look at the 538 article above about the zog poll you will see it doesn't adhere to normal polling standards by any measure. In fact, zog has been criticized for the last three election cycles for not taking into consideration the realities of the 21st Century.

This, like the PEW 15+ for Obama are both simply outliers. They don't fall anywhere near the norms of the rest of the 22 polls in National play and they certainly don't reflect the regional polling.

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