No recession yet: Stock prices advance after GDP report shows very small decline - Page 4 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #31 of 52 (permalink) Old 11-17-2008, 05:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Jayhawk View Post
It is still very unclear if we have a recession coming or not. I was looking for at least a 3% or 4% decline for the third quarter and many experts were predicting a 5% decline, but the economy still looks fundamentally strong w/ a very small 0.3 decline in growth. I guess we will have to wait until next February to see if we get six straight months of decline, which is the official definition of a recession. If there is a recession it will be interesting to see how deep it will be and how long it will last next year.

Stock prices advance after GDP report: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
Well, Jay, it's amazing how quickly something as big as the US economy can go from good to bad. A mere 18 days ago, your statement above seemed delusional and optimistic. Today, it's evident that you are totally out of your depth on the subject.

I think we've put to bed any questions about your credibility as an analyst, prognosticator, or even passive observer of anything to do with money or the economy. You can now STFU.

Economists more bearish on economy, NABE survey shows - MarketWatch
'Prolonged' recession, higher joblessness seen likely
NABE survey indicates most economists now believe U.S. recession's started

By Mike Maynard, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:02 a.m. EST Nov. 17, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. is in for a "prolonged" recession dragging into 2009, the National Association for Business Economics says.
In its latest survey, the organization sees a contraction in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product of 2.6% in the cards for the fourth quarter, with the weakness carrying well into next year. A separate survey by MarketWatch shows economists more pessimistic, expecting GDP to contract at a 3.5% pace in the fourth quarter.

With a small GDP contraction of 0.3% on the books for the 2008 third quarter, such a forecast would satisfy the definition of the U.S. economy being in recession -- two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- at the end of the year.

A total of 96% of the economists surveyed by NABE believe that a recession has begun.

Meanwhile, full-year GDP growth rates are pegged by NABE at 0.2% for 2008 and 0.7% for 2009.

"This would be the slowest growth over a two-year period since the early 1980s," noted NABE President Chris Varvares, the president of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers.

"Business economists became decidedly more negative on the economic outlook for the next several quarters as a result of the intensification of credit-market stresses and evidence of spillover to the real economy," Varvares said in a statement as NABE released the results of its November survey.

NABE's survey also shows respondents now seeing the nation's unemployment rate rising to 7.5% by the end of 2009, up from an October 2008 rate of 6.5% -- a 14-year high. The peak unemployment rate for the current downturn had previously been projected at 6.2%, before the government's report on employment came in much worse than anticipated, NABE said. See full story on October employment.

Job losses are expected to persist through the third quarter of 2009, before the employment picture begins to improve.

In addition, the survey showed that the median forecast among business economists is for the Federal Reserve to make no further interest-rate cuts, keeping the key benchmark rate at 1% until what NABE called a "modest rate hike" is implemented during the fourth quarter of 2009. MarketWatch's survey indicates a pair of rate cuts, each of a quarter of a percentage point, are in the offing for the Fed's policy meetings scheduled for Dec. 16 and Jan. 28.

Rounding out the highlights of the latest survey, U.S. housing demand may show signs of stabilizing, although both housing prices and housing starts will likely remain weak, the NABE respondents said. They also see credit conditions remaining tight through the first half of next year.

Moreover, they foresee the federal budget deficit hitting $576 billion during the government's 2009 fiscal year, in part reflecting spending tied to the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act and perhaps further stimulus measures, and, in light of the ecnomic weakness, are projecting that inflation will be well contained in the U.S. economy during 2009.
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post #32 of 52 (permalink) Old 11-17-2008, 06:11 AM
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I love that we have Jay on record, 30 Oct 08, saying "No recession! Things are good!"

What I find so extraordinary with Drew, Qbn, Bear and even you Marsden, most of us can agree that Jay with his constant economic outlook of the US for the past 2 years that all of you have witnessed, that this man is sick. Jay either has a serious mental problem or is hooked on some good shit, now what I cannot fathom is why any of you have not headed over to Lawrence to check on him to see if he is living in a mental home, his Mom's basement where she has cut away the stairs to make sure he can never escape or if he is a primo drug user living in a vacant factory and stealing wifi from the factory next door. If this is the case you need to find his source for a new supplier of the BOMB, because let's face it if he is not mental screwed he is on some good shit...........
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post #33 of 52 (permalink) Old 11-17-2008, 08:50 AM Thread Starter
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Well, Jay, it's amazing how quickly something as big as the US economy can go from good to bad. A mere 18 days ago, your statement above seemed delusional and optimistic. Today, it's evident that you are totally out of your depth on the subject.

I think we've put to bed any questions about your credibility as an analyst, prognosticator, or even passive observer of anything to do with money or the economy. You can now STFU.

Economists more bearish on economy, NABE survey shows - MarketWatch
'Prolonged' recession, higher joblessness seen likely
NABE survey indicates most economists now believe U.S. recession's started

By Mike Maynard, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:02 a.m. EST Nov. 17, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. is in for a "prolonged" recession dragging into 2009, the National Association for Business Economics says.
In its latest survey, the organization sees a contraction in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product of 2.6% in the cards for the fourth quarter, with the weakness carrying well into next year. A separate survey by MarketWatch shows economists more pessimistic, expecting GDP to contract at a 3.5% pace in the fourth quarter.

With a small GDP contraction of 0.3% on the books for the 2008 third quarter, such a forecast would satisfy the definition of the U.S. economy being in recession -- two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- at the end of the year.

A total of 96% of the economists surveyed by NABE believe that a recession has begun.

Meanwhile, full-year GDP growth rates are pegged by NABE at 0.2% for 2008 and 0.7% for 2009.

"This would be the slowest growth over a two-year period since the early 1980s," noted NABE President Chris Varvares, the president of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers.

"Business economists became decidedly more negative on the economic outlook for the next several quarters as a result of the intensification of credit-market stresses and evidence of spillover to the real economy," Varvares said in a statement as NABE released the results of its November survey.

NABE's survey also shows respondents now seeing the nation's unemployment rate rising to 7.5% by the end of 2009, up from an October 2008 rate of 6.5% -- a 14-year high. The peak unemployment rate for the current downturn had previously been projected at 6.2%, before the government's report on employment came in much worse than anticipated, NABE said. See full story on October employment.

Job losses are expected to persist through the third quarter of 2009, before the employment picture begins to improve.

In addition, the survey showed that the median forecast among business economists is for the Federal Reserve to make no further interest-rate cuts, keeping the key benchmark rate at 1% until what NABE called a "modest rate hike" is implemented during the fourth quarter of 2009. MarketWatch's survey indicates a pair of rate cuts, each of a quarter of a percentage point, are in the offing for the Fed's policy meetings scheduled for Dec. 16 and Jan. 28.

Rounding out the highlights of the latest survey, U.S. housing demand may show signs of stabilizing, although both housing prices and housing starts will likely remain weak, the NABE respondents said. They also see credit conditions remaining tight through the first half of next year.

Moreover, they foresee the federal budget deficit hitting $576 billion during the government's 2009 fiscal year, in part reflecting spending tied to the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act and perhaps further stimulus measures, and, in light of the ecnomic weakness, are projecting that inflation will be well contained in the U.S. economy during 2009.
You know what NABE stands for? National Association of Bullshit Economists...

Don't believe everything you think
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post #34 of 52 (permalink) Old 11-17-2008, 09:47 AM
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Of course...all of the professionals who look at this stuff day in and day out and are paid to do so - 96% of them, in fact, are all wrong, and you (plus 4% of these "Bullshit Economists") are right.

Might want to see if a colleague of yours can treat that case of delusion.
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post #35 of 52 (permalink) Old 11-17-2008, 10:04 AM
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Like I said, welcome to the new Right Wing: Shit Headism. Anyone who says we are not in recession is a Koolaid drinking shit head, and an obvious one at that, but don't worry, as soon as Obama takes office, Jayhawk will be screaming recession at the top of his lungs.

Of course we are in recession. All the big retailers are reporting a distinct change in consumer spending to recessionary spending habits, which will lead to an even greater downturn. The only winners right now are McDonald's and Walmart. Citibank announced 50,000 layoffs. We are not only in a recession, we are headed for over 10% unemployment in this country, which is a depression.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #36 of 52 (permalink) Old 11-17-2008, 10:14 AM
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Dang it Q, quit bringing in all those facts and experts into the conversation. Don't you know that talking heads and business writers with advertisements and time slots to sell are much more knowledgeable on the subject.

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Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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post #37 of 52 (permalink) Old 11-17-2008, 10:34 AM
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I'm not saying anything elau and you haven't been trumpeting for about a year. Just pointing out that news changes AWFULLY FAST when your hearing is impaired by an oversized gluteus maximus.
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post #38 of 52 (permalink) Old 11-17-2008, 10:43 AM
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I'm not saying anything elau and you haven't been trumpeting for about a year. Just pointing out that news changes AWFULLY FAST when your hearing is impaired by an oversized gluteus maximus.
Make that three years. I was looking up something earlier and saw some mid 2006 posts on the subject. It is amazing how long this crap has been dragging out.

I used the metaphor somewhere that some folks see this like driving down the road at 100 mph. The engine lights go on, smoke starts coming from under the hood, oil pressure drops, temp goes to the peg yet, because the car is still going 100, all is OK. The sky is blue, the breeze is nice, scenery is wonderful and the radio is playing that forgotten song.

90, 80, 70...still OK because we have great forward progress. The car is moving quickly along 50, 40... nevermind that ALL the signs [except the speedometer] say the car 30, 20... is broken.

And it is not until the car 15, 10, 5...rolls to a stop that the driver finally decides that the car has a problem. Well, you know the rest of the story.

McBear,
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Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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post #39 of 52 (permalink) Old 11-17-2008, 10:53 AM
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Jay did not get the Memo..........

Forecasters: U.S. in 14 month recession

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. economy fell into recession last spring and will contract sharply this quarter as more than 200,000 workers per month are added to the rolls of the unemployed, a survey said on Monday.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's latest Survey of Professional Forecasters removed some of the glow from an earlier report showing industrial output rebounded in October after hurricane disruptions produced a stunning fall in September.

Early data from the factory sector also supported the grim view of the forecasters, showing manufacturing in New York state tumbled in November to yet another record low.

Japan on Monday joined the euro zone in recession. Although the U.S. economy contracted in third quarter, that followed two consecutive quarters of growth, albeit helped by government stimulus payments. The arbiter of U.S. business cycles has not yet declared the economy in recession, generally defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.

The latest data and surveys provided new evidence that turmoil in credit markets was tightening its grip over the economy, which is unlikely to seen any relief soon from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

"The early signs suggest that the November data cycle is likely to be extremely weak," analysts at RDQ economics said in a research note.

On Wall Street, weak stocks hit session lows in the wake of the survey of forecasters and news that Citigroup said it would cut 50,000 jobs, or 15 percent of its workforce. Government bonds, which benefit from signs of economic weakness, were higher on the day. The dollar slid against the yen.

The Philadelphia Fed's survey said the U.S. economy entered a recession in April and that it will last 14 months. It predicted gross domestic product would shrink by 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, a sharp downgrade from the previous prediction of 0.7 percent growth.

The survey predicted the economy would shed an average of 222,400 jobs per month this quarter, versus the previous forecast of a loss of 45,400 per month.

The survey said first-quarter GDP would decline by 1.1 pct and the unemployment rate would hit 7.0 percent during the first three months of next year.

A separate report by the Federal Reserve showed U.S. industrial production rose a stronger-than-expected 1.3 percent in October after a downwardly revised September drop of 3.7 percent -- the biggest fall in more than 62 years.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected industrial output to rise just 0.2 percent in October, following an initially reported 2.8 percent fall in September.

The September slide in industrial output was the steepest since a 5.0 percent decline in February 1946.

The Fed said the revision to September output resulted, in part, from a larger estimate of the impacts that Hurricanes Gustav and Ike had on the chemical industry.

"EMPIRE" STRICKEN

In a separate report, the New York Fed said its "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to minus 25.43 from minus 24.62 in October. That was the lowest reading on manufacturing in New York state since the inception of the index in July 2001.

The report "paints a dim picture," said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital, in Greenwich, Connecticut. "Still, this is not exactly surprising but more confirmation," he added.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected an even weaker reading of minus 26.10.

The report, based on a survey of manufacturers in New York state, was generally bleak. The indexes for new orders and shipments slid to record lows, while the measures for unfilled orders, employment and inventories all slipped to their lowest levels since late 2001.

As with many recent reports, the one silver lining was that inflation measures fell, which should give the Federal Reserve leeway to continue holding interest rates low as it fights the effects of the worst financial crisis in 80 years.

The prices paid index fell for the fourth straight month and the prices received index tumbled to its lowest level in more than three years, the report said.

Respondents were also asked about cash holdings and debt financing. Just 20 percent of respondents reported that their cash balances were higher than usual, while 30 percent reported unusually low balances -- about the same proportions as in an identical poll conducted last year as part of the November 2007 survey, the report said.

In November, 38 percent of respondents reported tightening credit standards, up from 25 percent in October's survey.

Among those reporting tightening credit, the most widely cited effect was reduced capital investment, followed by workforce cuts, a shorter workweek and delays in payments to vendors, the report said.

Forecasters: U.S. in 14 month recession - Yahoo! News
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post #40 of 52 (permalink) Old 11-17-2008, 12:10 PM Thread Starter
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Make that three years. I was looking up something earlier and saw some mid 2006 posts on the subject. It is amazing how long this crap has been dragging out.

I used the metaphor somewhere that some folks see this like driving down the road at 100 mph. The engine lights go on, smoke starts coming from under the hood, oil pressure drops, temp goes to the peg yet, because the car is still going 100, all is OK. The sky is blue, the breeze is nice, scenery is wonderful and the radio is playing that forgotten song.

90, 80, 70...still OK because we have great forward progress. The car is moving quickly along 50, 40... nevermind that ALL the signs [except the speedometer] say the car 30, 20... is broken.

And it is not until the car 15, 10, 5...rolls to a stop that the driver finally decides that the car has a problem. Well, you know the rest of the story.
As you yourself point out, you've been spouting this bearshit for three years, and when it finally looks like you could be "right," scream "I told you so!" "I told you so!" Get over yourself bear! The intelligent posters here already have!

It is worth remembering that financial experts have predicted ten of the last three recessions. And I swear that when you smell flowers you look around for the funeral...

Don't believe everything you think
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