Margin of Victory - Page 5 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

View Poll Results: How close will the election be?
5% or more Obama/Biden 10 24.39%
3-5% Obama/Biden 7 17.07%
1-2% Obama/Biden 6 14.63%
Less than 1% Obama/Biden 1 2.44%
Photo finish, recount, Supreme Court, etc 2 4.88%
Less than 1% McCain/Palin 3 7.32%
1-2% McCain/Palin 1 2.44%
More than 2% McCain/Palin 2 4.88%
Don't know, undecided, irritated, third world, I mean third party, etc etc 3 7.32%
What election? 6 14.63%
Voters: 41. You may not vote on this poll

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post #41 of 51 (permalink) Old 11-03-2008, 04:59 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by cmitch View Post
Judging that most polls, historically, are skewed in the favor of the democrats and they're showing Obama up by 4-6 points, I'd say that Obama will win with about 2% to 3% over.
Sort of agree with you, I wonder if it's a non-racial Bradley Effect thing. Some people just don't like admitting to pollsters that they are really right-wing pigdogs
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post #42 of 51 (permalink) Old 11-03-2008, 05:24 PM
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Hey,, lets burn down the city if our candidate loses!!

Now thats something to really be proud of.
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post #43 of 51 (permalink) Old 11-03-2008, 05:28 PM Thread Starter
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We could always just destroy our own country, but oops the current leadership kinda did that already.
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post #44 of 51 (permalink) Old 11-03-2008, 05:37 PM
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We could always just destroy our own country, but oops the current leadership kinda did that already.
Your losing focus of my point.
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post #45 of 51 (permalink) Old 11-04-2008, 03:40 PM Thread Starter
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My homies is voting in large, large numbers today.

I may have underestimated the win
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post #46 of 51 (permalink) Old 11-05-2008, 02:24 PM Thread Starter
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Congratulations to:

Cancer_Researcher, cozette, FeelTheLove, lovemyc280, LTCSPEC, old300D, sheltonn, sleewell, the clk man, TNTRower

They called it right. The largest cohort was in fact the most accurate.

Barack Obama: 63,545,310 53.1%
John McCain: 56,171,396 46.9%

Total votes: 119,716,706 Margin of victory: 6.2%
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post #47 of 51 (permalink) Old 11-05-2008, 02:41 PM
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I finally won something...

When devils will the blackest sins put on, they do suggest, at first with heavenly shows - Othello
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post #48 of 51 (permalink) Old 11-05-2008, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Marsden View Post
Congratulations to:

Cancer_Researcher, cozette, FeelTheLove, lovemyc280, LTCSPEC, old300D, sheltonn, sleewell, the clk man, TNTRower

They called it right. The largest cohort was in fact the most accurate.

Barack Obama: 63,545,310 53.1%
John McCain: 56,171,396 46.9%

Total votes: 119,716,706 Margin of victory: 6.2%
That's only 1.1% down from the final Real Clear Politics number [7.3%] and 1.55 down from the aggregate of all 22 daily polls [7.75%]. Lends pretty good credence to the polling system.

For future reference, Rasmussen, Marist, Ipsos/McClatchy held the best trending pattern. Zogby did the last 10 days after he completely reconfigured how he did National polling after being embarrassed mercilessly by Nate at 538 regarding his methodology.

Looks like the "Bradley Effect" is now buried. It might be replaced by the "Palin Effect", if the exit polling is any indication.

I expected it to be closer. I had calculated about the right number of Democrats voting but would never have believed that 6 Million Republicans would have stayed home. Yikes. Those wanting a THREE PARTY SYSTEM might just have it, though not what you really wanted.

McBear,
Kentucky

Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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post #49 of 51 (permalink) Old 11-05-2008, 02:48 PM
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I was also correct.

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #50 of 51 (permalink) Old 11-05-2008, 03:31 PM
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I believe the vote I cast for "What Election?" was also spot-on accurate
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