The Great Depression Of 2008 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 86 (permalink) Old 10-25-2008, 10:11 PM Thread Starter
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The Great Depression Of 2008

The Great Depression Of 2008 - A New Era - Ron Paul - Part 1

The Great Depression Of 2008 - A New Era - Ron Paul - Part 2

The Great Depression Of 2008 - A New Era - Ron Paul - Part 3

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #2 of 86 (permalink) Old 10-25-2008, 10:34 PM
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Good stuff. There is much to learn there.

I particularly liked the Hopi philosophy at the end.

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post #3 of 86 (permalink) Old 10-26-2008, 03:10 PM
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Very good.

Now I need to go buy some gold and bury it.

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post #4 of 86 (permalink) Old 10-26-2008, 08:56 PM Thread Starter
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YouTube - Ron Paul: We need fisical conservatism; polititicans cannot plan the economy; and limited government is the cure for a sick USA.

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #5 of 86 (permalink) Old 10-26-2008, 09:10 PM
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I just wish when Paul says "we are going to solve these problems..." he would actually lay out some real information. The 30,000ft theory is great on a white board but he has never once given a single outline of how to get from X to Z. Simply saying "reduce government" and "quit spending" is not a plan, it a bumper sticker. But it gets a bunch of people thinking that it is all that is necessary to "fix it".

Just looking at the last month. Paul suggests that the bail out "only helps the rich and rewards those who did wrong". That is completely wrong. Does it help them YES. But this thing was much bigger than simply providing solvency to a few banks so they didn't tank. This bailout was intended to insure the entire economy didn't tank.

And the folks that throw out the line that "yeah, it will hurt for a little while" don't have a clue just what impacts would be involved in that "little while". Unemployment would start being measured in the 25% range and GDP would move from the current $14T down to the single digits in a heartbeat. There are several emerging economies that would gladly take up the slack. It would take generations to regain it, if it was even possible.

I don't think Paul is thinking this through on the macro scale that this crisis became.

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post #6 of 86 (permalink) Old 10-26-2008, 09:16 PM Thread Starter
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It seems to me that he is thinking it through on a larger scale than you. You want to rescue the existing economy. He is saying it's already too late, and all of this pointless inflation is doing nothing but buying a little time.

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #7 of 86 (permalink) Old 10-26-2008, 09:27 PM
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It seems to me that he is thinking it through on a larger scale than you. You want to rescue the existing economy. He is saying it's already too late, and all of this pointless inflation is doing nothing but buying a little time.
Two different paths. One path [NO BAILOUT] insures destruction of the economy for a time period and ALL American's suffer and the second path [BAILOUT] has the potential of not allowing the entire economy to crash to Depression values.

I don't think it is too late to save the existing economy. It has too many characteristics that affect too many citizens that require it be addressed.

If we write this economy off, we will, by default drastically raise taxes on WORKING AMERICANS because there will be a good number of people who simply won't have jobs from which taxes can be drawn. That will place the burden on the remaining working population to carry even more of the load.

I understand his adherence to the Austrian school but it has not dealt with this sort of economic crisis on a grand scale. Writing off an economy and just letting it die, simply to start with a clean slate is braindead.

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post #8 of 86 (permalink) Old 10-26-2008, 09:41 PM
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And the folks that throw out the line that "yeah, it will hurt for a little while" don't have a clue just what impacts would be involved in that "little while". Unemployment would start being measured in the 25% range and GDP would move from the current $14T down to the single digits in a heartbeat. There are several emerging economies that would gladly take up the slack. It would take generations to regain it, if it was even possible.
I am with you on this one, Bear.
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post #9 of 86 (permalink) Old 10-26-2008, 09:44 PM
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Unfortunately, it's also brain-dead to continue trying to prop up this debt-based house of cards we have now, repeatedly rewarding the very same bad actors who have brought our nation to this pretty pass in the first place.

There's going to be a world of hurt any way you look at it. Denniger's point, and to some extent Paul's, is that constructive reform can only happen if the old, corrupt system is flushed clean. Yes it's more than an upheaval, it's a cataclysm. But it would offer the signal virtue of setting things somewhat to rights. What we're doing now doesn't offer that; quite the contrary. Not to mention, it's not working.

There is scarcely anything in the world that some man cannot make a little worse, and sell a little more cheaply. The person who buys on price alone is this man's lawful prey. --John Ruskin
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post #10 of 86 (permalink) Old 10-26-2008, 10:00 PM
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Unfortunately, it's also brain-dead to continue trying to prop up this debt-based house of cards we have now, repeatedly rewarding the very same bad actors who have brought our nation to this pretty pass in the first place.

There's going to be a world of hurt any way you look at it. Denniger's point, and to some extent Paul's, is that constructive reform can only happen if the old, corrupt system is flushed clean. Yes it's more than an upheaval, it's a cataclysm. But it would offer the signal virtue of setting things somewhat to rights. What we're doing now doesn't offer that; quite the contrary. Not to mention, it's not working.
I don't argue at all that this patchwork is a marginal solution at best. I just think that the alternative solution of flushing the old system clean is going to be devastating on a level that folks are not realizing.

I don't think folks realize just how much commerce would simply STOP. Companies like IBM and GE would lay off 50,000 each within weeks. Entire industries would simply drop off the horizon. R&D into new technologies would cease as companies held onto cash for "necessities". Customer bases would drop. As unemployment rose, foreclosures and repossessions would grow exponentially, backloading losses to companies from expected revenue.

Contingencies of governments, which would have to address the shortfall of tax revenue would cut services. That would impact many of the government/corporate cooperatives that help business move through daily commerce [think Port Authority, airports and container management].

An interesting parallel look at what could happen is to look at the Japanese Recession of 1986-1990 which continued until 2003. It is known as "The Lost Decade". The differences between Japanese and American cultures, including our Capitalism and Entrepreneurism are widely different but there are some striking parallels. We DON'T want the same thing to happen to this economy. Being larger, inertia will make the problems worse than what Japan suffered.

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