AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 30 (permalink) Old 10-22-2008, 12:46 PM Thread Starter
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AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.

"I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long enough," said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.

But Karen Judd, 58, of Middleton, Wis., said, "Obama certainly has sufficient qualifications." She said any positive feelings about McCain evaporated with "the outright lying" in TV ads and his choice of running mate Sarah Palin, who "doesn't have the correct skills."

The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.

Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points.

Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means Obama could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6. There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions.

Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor and polling authority, said variation between polls occurs, in part, because pollsters interview random samples of people.

"If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong," he said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within a few points of each other, adding, "When you get much beyond that, there's something to explain."

The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.

A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had a chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls.

It was taken over five days from Thursday through Monday, starting the night after the candidates' final debate and ending the day after former Secretary of State Colin Powell broke with the Republican Party to endorse Obama.

McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support "bounce" or something more lasting.

During their final debate, a feisty McCain repeatedly forced Obama to defend his record, comments and associations. He also used the story of a voter whom the Democrat had met in Ohio, "Joe the plumber," to argue that Obama's tax plan would be bad for working class voters.

"I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody," Obama told the man with the last name of Wurzelbacher, who had asked Obama whether his plan to increase taxes on those earning more than $250,000 a year would impede his ability to buy the plumbing company where he works.

On Wednesday, McCain's campaign unveiled a new TV ad that features that Obama quote, and shows different people saying: "I'm Joe the plumber." A man asks: "Obama wants my sweat to pay for his trillion dollars in new spending?"

Since McCain has seized on that line of argument, he has picked up support among white married people and non-college educated whites, the poll shows, while widening his advantage among white men. Black voters still overwhelmingly support Obama.

The Republican also has improved his rating for handling the economy and the financial crisis. Nearly half of likely voters think their taxes will rise under an Obama administration compared with a third who say McCain would raise their taxes.

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

Don't believe everything you think
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post #2 of 30 (permalink) Old 10-22-2008, 12:55 PM
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Fox poll
eh ?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOX News Poll: Obama Grabs Nine Point Lead Over McCain

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

By Dana Blanton
Eighty-eight percent of Democrats support Obama, and 83 percent of Republicans back McCain. Independents break 44 percent to 35 percent in Obama's favor.

In addition to independents, white Catholics are another important swing voting group and they support Obama 50 percent to 39 percent. White Catholics have voted for the winner in each of the last four presidential elections.

New voters — people who have registered to vote in the last two years — back Obama by 51 percent to 40 percent.

A FOX News poll published Oct. 10 among registered voters found Obama leading McCain by seven points, 46 percent to 39 percent.
FOXNews.com - FOX News Poll: Obama Grabs Nine Point Lead Over McCain - Polls | AP Polls | Gallup Poll | Opinion Polls
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post #3 of 30 (permalink) Old 10-22-2008, 01:23 PM
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I found the AP-Gfk poll site.
quite interesting.
the respondents were asked who would likely win the election.
68% said Democrat!
hmm..


oh, here's the site. click on the oct 16th poll.. 26 pages pdf. file
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post #4 of 30 (permalink) Old 10-22-2008, 01:29 PM
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Interesting Jay, You picked the outlier from AP but failed to point out the Zogby, Gallup, NBC News, PEW or Fox polls that have wandered through in the past 24 hours.

Zogby 10
Gallup 9
NBC 10
PEW 14
Fox 9

By the way, the average of all 22 polls is 7.02 and the RCP average is 6.8, both calculating in the AP numbers.

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Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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post #5 of 30 (permalink) Old 10-22-2008, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
Interesting Jay, You picked the outlier from AP but failed to point out the Zogby, Gallup, NBC News, PEW or Fox polls that have wandered through in the past 24 hours.

Zogby 10
Gallup 9
NBC 10
PEW 14
Fox 9

By the way, the average of all 22 polls is 7.02 and the RCP average is 6.8, both calculating in the AP numbers.

Hey hey, don't forget what Sarah says...............

Palin says election result rests in God's hands


DENVER (AP) - Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin describes herself as a "hard-core pro-lifer" and expresses confidence that in spite of disheartening polls, "putting this in God's hands, that the right thing for America will be done at the end of the day on Nov. 4."

In an interview with evangelical leader James Dobson that aired Wednesday, Palin said she thought Republican presidential candidate John McCain would implement the GOP platform if elected—"I do, from the bottom of my heart"—but McCain doesn't support the platform on three issues important to evangelicals: abortion, gay marriage and embryonic stem cell research.

The platform calls for a constitutional ban on gay marriage, an issue McCain says should be left to individual states. Similarly, the platform seeks a constitutional ban on all abortions; again, McCain supports allowing states to decide the question. McCain supports research using embryonic stem cells, which the platform opposes.

Palin called it a "strong platform" and told Dobson, "They are there, they are solid, we stand on them and, again, I believe that it is the right agenda for the country at this time."

The Alaska governor talked by phone with Dobson for about 20 minutes Monday while she was in Colorado campaigning. Dobson's Focus on the Family radio program aired the interview Wednesday.

Dobson asked whether Palin was discouraged by polls showing the GOP ticket behind.

"To me, it motivates us, makes us work that much harder," Palin said. "And it also strengthens my faith, because I'm going to know, at the end of the day, putting this in God's hands, that the right thing for America will be done at the end of the day on Nov. 4. So I'm not discouraged at all."

Palin has not focused on her faith on the campaign trail, but it clearly has energized evangelical leaders like Dobson, whose radio show reaches an estimated 1.5 million Americans daily.

Dobson has come around to supporting the McCain-Palin ticket after previously saying he could not in good conscience vote for McCain. He endorsed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee late in the primaries.

Palin thanked Dobson and supporters for their prayers and—when Dobson inquired about the importance of faith in her life—said: "It is my foundation, yes, my Christian faith is."

She also used terms like "prayer warrior" and "intercession"—words that might be unknown to the average listener but are common vocabulary in Pentecostal Christianity. Palin spent 20 years in a Pentecostal Assemblies of God Church, but she usually refers to her faith generically as Christian, not even evangelical.

"It is that intercession that is so needed and so greatly appreciated," Palin told Dobson. "And I can feel it too, Dr. Dobson. I can feel the power of prayer, and that strength that is provided through our prayer warriors across this nation."

She continued: "When we hear along the rope lines that people are interceding for us and praying for us, it's our reminder to do the same, to put this all in God's hands, to seek his perfect will for this nation, and to of course seek his wisdom and guidance in putting this nation back on the right track."

Describing herself as a "hard-core pro-lifer," Palin said the birth of a son with Down syndrome was "this opportunity for me to really be walking the walk and not just talking the talk. There's purpose in this also and for a greater good to be met there."

Palin said the campaign had to have faith that its message will be heard "minus the filter of the mainstream media."

"That filter has to be erased," she said. "So we have to have faith in the wisdom of the people that they'll understand what our message is. But even bigger that then, I have to have that faith that God is going to help us get that message out there."
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post #6 of 30 (permalink) Old 10-22-2008, 01:48 PM
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How the hell long you think he had to look to find a poll that didn't make him look like a complete moron these past few months?
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post #7 of 30 (permalink) Old 10-22-2008, 01:57 PM
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Gawd, I've been thinking the same thing since I saw this stupid thread...

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post #8 of 30 (permalink) Old 10-22-2008, 02:11 PM
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I worry still about Bradley.
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post #9 of 30 (permalink) Old 10-22-2008, 02:13 PM
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Don't fret Bradley, worry about turnout.

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #10 of 30 (permalink) Old 10-22-2008, 02:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shane View Post
I worry still about Bradley.
I'm sure he's fine, having a ball and will send a postcard soon...

Ross

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