This poll has been the most conservative of all, showing a much closer race, that is, up until now. Looking at the numbers, the surge in support for Obama is coming from the undecided independents:
Released: October 20, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Is Mobama Back?
Big day for Obama propels him to 5.4-point lead over McCainâ€”49.8% to 44.4%
UTICA, New York â€“ Democrat Barack Obama has opened a 5.4-point lead over Republican John McCain in the race for president, halting McCainâ€™s recent gains as the contest heads into its final weeks, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.
Data from this poll is available here
Obama now leads McCain 49.8% to 44.4%. McCain trailed Obama by 2.7 points in polling released yesterday.
Five-point-eight percent of the likely voters surveyed said they are supporting other candidates or remain undecided.
Obama gained two points from yesterdayâ€™s report, while McCain slipped seven-tenths of a point. It was the first day Obama has gained following three consecutive days in which his numbers slipped and McCainâ€™s numbers increased. During the 14 days of the tracking poll, Obama has led by as much as 6.2 points and as little as 1.9 points.
Obamaâ€™s gain to nearly 50% support is the highest level of support he has received since the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking began two weeks ago.
This three-day rolling average of telephone polling now includes a sample taken entirely after the final presidential debate last Wednesday.
The tracking poll includes 1,211 likely voters across the country who were surveyed between Oct. 17-19, 2008, at the rate of about 400 per day. The survey, conducted using live telephone interviewers calling from Zogbyâ€™s call center in Upstate New York, carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
Week Two Three-Day
Week One Three-Day
Obama leads among independent voters by a 49% to 38% margin, adding three points to his advantage over McCain. Both candidates have remained strong among their political bases â€“ McCain wins 88% of Republicans, compared to 89% of Democrats who support Obama.
Men are now slightly favoring Obama, who leads by just two percentage points among the group â€“ yesterdayâ€™s report showed McCain with a two-point lead among men. Obama leads by eight points among women.
Obama continues to win 18% support among conservative voters, while McCain wins only six percent among liberals. Among moderates, a demographic that includes substantially more Democrats than Republicans, Obama leads, 62% to 33% for McCain.
Daily Tracking Continues
This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election. With each new day of responses that are folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is removed, so the poll â€śtracksâ€ť changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the race. Keep up-to-date every day by visiting Zogby International
For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit: