Zogby Poll shows big Powell endorsement bump. - Mercedes-Benz Forum

 
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Zogby Poll shows big Powell endorsement bump.

This poll has been the most conservative of all, showing a much closer race, that is, up until now. Looking at the numbers, the surge in support for Obama is coming from the undecided independents:


Released: October 20, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Is Mobama Back?

Big day for Obama propels him to 5.4-point lead over McCain—49.8% to 44.4%

UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama has opened a 5.4-point lead over Republican John McCain in the race for president, halting McCain’s recent gains as the contest heads into its final weeks, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

Data from this poll is available here

Obama now leads McCain 49.8% to 44.4%. McCain trailed Obama by 2.7 points in polling released yesterday.

Five-point-eight percent of the likely voters surveyed said they are supporting other candidates or remain undecided.

Obama gained two points from yesterday’s report, while McCain slipped seven-tenths of a point. It was the first day Obama has gained following three consecutive days in which his numbers slipped and McCain’s numbers increased. During the 14 days of the tracking poll, Obama has led by as much as 6.2 points and as little as 1.9 points.

Obama’s gain to nearly 50% support is the highest level of support he has received since the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking began two weeks ago.

This three-day rolling average of telephone polling now includes a sample taken entirely after the final presidential debate last Wednesday.

The tracking poll includes 1,211 likely voters across the country who were surveyed between Oct. 17-19, 2008, at the rate of about 400 per day. The survey, conducted using live telephone interviewers calling from Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York, carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.



Week Two Three-Day

Tracking Poll
10–19
10–18
10-17
10-16
10-15
10-14
10-13

Obama
49.8%
47.8%
48.3%
48.7%
49.0%
48.2%
49.0%

McCain
44.4%
45.1%
44.4%
43.7%
43.5%
44.4%
42.8%

Others/Not sure
5.8%
7.1%
7.3%
7.6%
7.5%
7.4%
8.2%




Week One Three-Day

Tracking Poll
10-12
10-11
10-10
10-9
10-8
10-7
10-6

Obama
47.9%
48.9%
47.6%
47.6%
47.8%
47.1%
47.7%

McCain
43.6%
42.8%
43.8%
43.4%
44.2%
45.2%
45.3%

Others/Not sure
8.5%
8.3%
8.6%
9.0%
8.0%
7.7%
7.0%


Obama leads among independent voters by a 49% to 38% margin, adding three points to his advantage over McCain. Both candidates have remained strong among their political bases – McCain wins 88% of Republicans, compared to 89% of Democrats who support Obama.

Men are now slightly favoring Obama, who leads by just two percentage points among the group – yesterday’s report showed McCain with a two-point lead among men. Obama leads by eight points among women.

Obama continues to win 18% support among conservative voters, while McCain wins only six percent among liberals. Among moderates, a demographic that includes substantially more Democrats than Republicans, Obama leads, 62% to 33% for McCain.

Daily Tracking Continues

This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election. With each new day of responses that are folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is removed, so the poll “tracks” changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the race. Keep up-to-date every day by visiting Zogby International.

For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
Zogby International

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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