Pollster: Don’t believe the democRAT hype - Mercedes-Benz Forum

 
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post #1 of 7 (permalink) Old 10-09-2008, 11:52 AM Thread Starter
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Pollster: Don’t believe the democRAT hype

The presidential race is still too close to call and could come down to the very last weekend before voters decide if they like or distrust Barack Obama, a national pollster predicts.

“I don’t think Obama has closed the deal yet,” pollster John Zogby told the Herald yesterday.

Zogby’s latest poll, released yesterday in conjunction with C-Span and Reuters, shows Obama and John McCain in a statistical dead heat, with the Illinois Democrat up 48-45 percent.

Zogby said the race mirrors the 1980 election, when voters didn’t embrace Ronald Reagan over then-President Jimmy Carter until just days before the election.

“The Sunday before the election the dam burst,” Zogby said of the 1980 tilt. “That’s when voters determined they were comfortable with Reagan.”

Now voters are wrestling with two senators with opposite resumes - Obama, at 47, the unknown, and the established 72-year-old McCain.

Zogby said he’s still hearing from moderates and non-partisan voters - what he calls “the big middle” - who are still shopping for a candidate.

“It still can break one way or the other,” Zogby says.

The Numbers

The three-day survey polled 1,220 likely voters - about 400 people a day. Zogby will continuously poll right up until the November election.

The latest poll numbers may reflect the bump that McCain received after his running mate, Alaskan Gov. Sarah Palin sparred with Obama’s running mate, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden during the first and only vice presidential debate last week.

The poll shows that the two White House contenders have no problem attracting support from their own parties.

Obama is winning 84 percent of the Democratic Party support and McCain has 85 percent of the GOP support, but Obama has the edge among sought-after Independent voters.

He leads McCain among independents, 48 percent to 39 percent, according to the poll.

Obama also has support from a slightly higher percent of conservative voters than McCain gets from liberal voters, but the advantage is small, according to the poll.

Pollsters surveyed 1,220 likely voters and asked approximately 39 questions. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster: Don’t believe the Dem hype - BostonHerald.com

Don't believe everything you think
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post #2 of 7 (permalink) Old 10-09-2008, 11:58 AM Thread Starter
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Voters Haven't Decided Yet

Now it's up to the candidates to drive home their message.

Tuesday night's presidential debate was good entertainment. Both candidates were animated and loose throughout a wide-ranging discussion. Sen. Barack Obama did well in Sen. John McCain's favorite format. Mr. McCain was more focused and sharp than in the first debate, though the cameras above him made his balding pate more prominent.

Tom Brokaw was often a distraction: Did he really need over a hundred words -- including the name "Sherard Cowper-Coles" -- to ask about Afghanistan?

Mr. McCain's advocates were cheered by him advancing the theme that Mr. Obama lacks a record of accomplishment or bipartisanship in the Senate. Mr. McCain also described how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac constituted "the match that started this forest fire" that's engulfed our economy, and nailed Mr. Obama and Democrats for being AWOL on GSE reform.

Mr. McCain was most effective on taxes and spending. He argued now is not the time to raise taxes and hit Mr. Obama's proposal to hike small business taxes: three out of four filers in the top 5% report small-business income. Mr. McCain called for a spending freeze and attacked earmarks, including Mr. Obama's $3 million for a Chicago planetarium's "overhead projector." Mr. Obama weakly replied earmarks were only $18 billion.

Advocates of Mr. Obama, on the other hand, saw him scoring points on style and connecting with questioners. He patiently explained to one how the Wall Street rescue package would help him and his neighbors on Main Street. He had the night's emotional high point when he talked about his dying mother fighting her insurer over whether her cancer was a pre-existing condition. He called for dramatic change and tied Mr. McCain to the Bush administration, though not too often to be obnoxious.

Mr. Obama also offered his villain responsible for the current crisis: "the deregulation of the financial system." Many voters will accept Mr. Obama's designation, despite it being both wrong and a slap at President Bill Clinton, who signed the 1999 deregulation legislation that Mr. Obama seems to object to, and Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin and Undersecretary Larry Summers, who helped fashion it. What do these Obama advisers think of being blamed for the credit-market meltdown?

What about swing voters? There are probably more undecided and persuadable voters open to switching their choice than in any election since 1968. ...

Voters Haven't Decided Yet - WSJ.com

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post #3 of 7 (permalink) Old 10-09-2008, 12:46 PM
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Apparently Zog doesn't want us to believe the other polls either.

Maybe Zog is having a problem with methodology since he is somewhat out of touch with the rest of national DAILY polling, although today's number is moving toward the average.

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post #4 of 7 (permalink) Old 10-09-2008, 01:08 PM Thread Starter
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Apparently Zog doesn't want us to believe the other polls either.

Maybe Zog is having a problem with methodology since he is somewhat out of touch with the rest of national DAILY polling, although today's number is moving toward the average.
I really do think this election could be up for grabs as late as Nov. 4... Regardless of what any poll/s says. More than any time in history, I do not trust what they are saying.

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post #5 of 7 (permalink) Old 10-09-2008, 01:23 PM
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As you know I am not a fan of polls. I do like watching them the last month prior to an election just for the math exercise as it is interesting to watch the dynamics.

I did the same in 2004 and 2006 and in the last month they were deadly accurate. Shocked me at how close they were.

But on this race, there are too many variables that do not fit normal polling analysis so these little slices are just that. What they are showing is momentum and a lack of "movement" when one would expect it. The Sarah! Effect, as example only had a one week bump. Her "win" in the debate by not screwing up did not even show a two day pop in the polls.

Those are the reasons I watch them.

Now as for this not being decided until Election Day, I don't think so. Momentum is a big gorilla. and, unless Obama decides to go drive a tank or speak at the Bin Laden Family Reunion, I think momentum is moving his direction.

Right now McCain is looking like everybody's grumpy old uncle who is not quite all with us and Palin sounds a LOT like every guy's ex wife [and that is the extend of my sexist comments for this election ]

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post #6 of 7 (permalink) Old 10-09-2008, 03:34 PM
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National polls are meaningless. This is a swing-state electoral college election. Nevada and Virginia are noticeably swinging Obama's way, and on Oct 31 the Democratic Party gets one of the greatest free mass mailouts in US electoral history - the 401k statements and interest income statements for millions of voters, and old Joe Sixpack will be switching to Mad Dog while grandma and grandpa switch to Dog Food. McMoreOfTheSame is toast. I think we are heading for a landslide.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #7 of 7 (permalink) Old 10-09-2008, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by FeelTheLove View Post
National polls are meaningless. This is a swing-state electoral college election. Nevada and Virginia are noticeably swinging Obama's way, and on Oct 31 the Democratic Party gets one of the greatest free mass mailouts in US electoral history - the 401k statements and interest income statements for millions of voters, and old Joe Sixpack will be switching to Mad Dog while grandma and grandpa switch to Dog Food. McMoreOfTheSame is toast. I think we are heading for a landslide.
That may be true if all the rednecks had pensions or stocks. Far too many of them have no investments other than their 4-wheelers. They might not feel the pinch soon enough to change their votes.
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