Well, looks like even the lagging Zogby Poll, Jayhawk's newest favorite poll, is coming into line with all the rest. Obama is on his way to election. Interesting analysis from zogby.com:
Released: October 10, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 48%, McCain 43%
Democrat Barack Obama ahead with a slowly growing advantage
UTICA, New York - The latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll of likely voters nationwide shows Democrat Barack Obama enjoys a small but growing lead over Republican John McCain, as the candidates work to cope with an daunting economic meltdown that continues to deteriorate worldwide, and voters try to figure out just what is going on and who is more to blame.
Data from this poll is available here
The rolling telephone tracking poll, including a sample of 1,203 likely voters collected over the previous three 24-hour periods spanning four calendar days - approximately 400 per 24-hour period from Oct. 6-9, 2008 - shows that Obama enjoys a growing lead, now at 4.2 percentage points, up from 3.6 percentage points yesterday.
Obama had his first single-day polling above 50%, while McCain polled in the low 40s for the second day in a row. Still, the race remains within the margin of error.
Three Day Tracking Poll
The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll was conducted about half before Tuesday's Obama-McCain town-hall-style debate, and about half afterward. It was performed by live telephone operators in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
Negative Campaigning Perhaps Causing a Backlash?
The rolling survey was conducted in part after the McCain campaign launched attacks against Obama for his associations with a former pastor and a one-time leader of a radical group in the 1960s, but McCain, not Obama, is the one who has lost ground in the last two days since this new McCain campaign strategy was ratcheted up. This may be a reaction by likely voters to negative campaign tactics, which have not worked this year.
Pollster John Zogby noted early in this presidential race that because voter anger and disillusionment at Washington was so strong, negative campaign tactics would likely not work this time around, and could backfire.
While Obama leads by 12 points among women, McCain leads by four points among men.
The two candidates are doing well at attracting support from their own partisans - Obama is winning 88% of the Democratic Party support, up slightly from 86% in yesterday's tracking report, and McCain is winning 87% of the Republican Party support - the same percentage as yesterday.
Importantly, Obama holds a 10-point lead among independents, a key because Zogby estimates independent voters comprise 26% of the electorate this year.
Obama also leads among a key age demographic group - those aged 35 to 54 - where he holds a six-point edge.
Daily Tracking Continues
This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election, keeping in touch with the daily twists and turns in the race for the White House. The running poll of about 1,200 likely voters consists of three days of polling - about 400 from each of the last three days. With each new day of polling that is folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is replaced with the fresh data, so the poll "tracks" changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the campaigns. Keep up-to-date every day by visiting Zogby International
For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit: