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post #11 of 58 (permalink) Old 09-17-2008, 04:21 PM
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I am guessing you missed those big bright RED letters MORE AT THE LINK. Or maybe it was the sentence "I'll just summarize my main points here right at the beginning and then flesh them out in a little bit in more detail. These are essentially the five points I've been making for a while now." that confused you.

As for the "I am not a forecaster, he is a PhD Economist. He lets his Expert Opinion to other experts generate the forecast.

Reading comprehension. Sorry you missed that part of your education.

As for Stagflation, I usually suggest that it is "at best..." as in "at best we will balance to Stagflation".

Want to give it another shot, this time with the gun loaded, or at least with a gun, or at least with a thought?
Sometimes you're your own worst enemy bear! Your convoluted attempts to appear relevant leave everyone a bit queezy... Oops! Got a barf bag?

Don't believe everything you think
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post #12 of 58 (permalink) Old 09-17-2008, 11:10 PM Thread Starter
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Leave it to you to post that Roubini Rubbish! Here is a much more thoughtful take on the credit "crisis..." It is about common sense rather than more of your fear-mongering!
Once again, I am compelled to remind you that if you have invested remotely consistent with your endless pronouncements in this forum, you have sustained a shellacking consistent with, well, consistent with the shellackings you regularly suffer in this forum
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post #13 of 58 (permalink) Old 09-18-2008, 09:06 AM
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Once again, I am compelled to remind you that if you have invested remotely consistent with your endless pronouncements in this forum, you have sustained a shellacking consistent with, well, consistent with the shellackings you regularly suffer in this forum
My equity portfolio is off just over 4% YTD v. the S&P, which is down about 30% YTD; and my commercial real estate portfolio is actually up about 4% YTD, so I'd hardly call that a "shellacking."

Actually, that was as of last week when I talked w/ my broker... FWIW: I do not invest my own money--I pay market experts to do that for me. And I do not follow the day-to-day movement of the markets or my accounts, but I think I'm doing relatively well--all things considered.

Don't believe everything you think

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post #14 of 58 (permalink) Old 09-18-2008, 09:49 AM
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The contradictory sentences I identified in my previous post are not dependent on the BIG BRIGHT LINKS, are they ?
Yes they are. CONTEXT.

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post #15 of 58 (permalink) Old 09-18-2008, 09:58 AM
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Sometimes you're your own worst enemy bear! Your convoluted attempts to appear relevant leave everyone a bit queezy... Oops! Got a barf bag?
I think the queasiness might be from something you ate...your words.

This month is the culmination of our conversation of the last three years. Unfortunately so many things that I have posted have come true, much because this administration failed to see the problem quick enough, take it seriously enough or, when seen, hide its ramifications for political purposes. At every turn you supported those Administration actions [and inactions].

I wouldn't be surprised at all if you are feeling a bit queasy. Had I been that wrong, that often I would be too. [It's why you don't see me discussing Psychology or Principles of Learning in Education, NOT MY FIELDS]

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post #16 of 58 (permalink) Old 09-18-2008, 10:06 AM
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I think the queasiness might be from something you ate...your words.

This month is the culmination of our conversation of the last three years. Unfortunately so many things that I have posted have come true, much because this administration failed to see the problem quick enough, take it seriously enough or, when seen, hide its ramifications for political purposes. At every turn you supported those Administration actions [and inactions].

I wouldn't be surprised at all if you are feeling a bit queasy. Had I been that wrong, that often I would be too. [It's why you don't see me discussing Psychology or Principles of Learning in Education, NOT MY FIELDS]
You are not only a saint butt a sage...
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post #17 of 58 (permalink) Old 09-18-2008, 10:15 AM
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You are not only a saint butt a sage...
I just calls em like I see em.

And anyway, sage is the color I picked for the library. It works well with the 200 shelf feet of custom bookcases.

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post #18 of 58 (permalink) Old 09-18-2008, 10:49 AM
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Yes they are. CONTEXT.
Guess which quote will be used to highlight his accuracy and prescience when the economy takes a hard landing, and which quote will be used when it doesn't....basically speaking from both sides, covering both ends which is the problem with many of these self proclaimed prophets.
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post #19 of 58 (permalink) Old 09-18-2008, 01:27 PM
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Guess which quote will be used to highlight his accuracy and prescience when the economy takes a hard landing, and which quote will be used when it doesn't....basically speaking from both sides, covering both ends which is the problem with many of these self proclaimed prophets.
You might want to read all 40,000 words to gain a better prospective. OR simply read what quotes attributed to him are already being used to frame the current crisis that he described 30 months ago [24 months ago in this speech]

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post #20 of 58 (permalink) Old 09-18-2008, 01:28 PM
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a repost from the other thread.

Here kiddies is the smoking gun. As I have been screaming for the past three years, this Administration has failed to REGULATE the Financial Sector and put this country's economy in a tail spin that has already required $1.4TRILLION in BAILOUT [so much for normal ebb and flow].

Quote:
The losses incurred by Bear Stearns and other large broker-dealers were not caused by "rumors" or a "crisis of confidence," but rather by inadequate net capital and the lack of constraints on the incurring of debt.

--Lee Pickard, former director, SEC trading and markets division.
Quote:
As we learn this morning, special exemptions from the SEC are in large part responsible for the huge build up in financial sector leverage over the past 4 years -- as well as the massive current unwind

Satow interviews the above quoted former SEC director, and he spits out the blunt truth: The current excess leverage now unwinding was the result of a purposeful SEC exemption given to five firms.

You read that right -- the events of the past year are not a mere accident, but are the results of a conscious and willful SEC decision to allow these firms to legally violate existing net capital rules that, in the past 30 years, had limited broker dealers debt-to-net capital ratio to 12-to-1.

Instead, the 2004 exemption -- given only to 5 firms -- allowed them to lever up 30 and even 40 to 1.

Who were the five that received this special exemption? You won't be surprised to learn that they were Goldman, Merrill, Lehman, Bear Stearns, and Morgan Stanley.
The Big Picture | How SEC Regulatory Exemptions Helped Lead to Collapse

This is developing quickly. More to follow.

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