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post #21 of 69 (permalink) Old 09-11-2008, 05:46 PM
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No, the high pressure ridge has a large effect on the steering winds of the hurricane, the 'cane will follow the ridge like a bowling ball. The real unpredictable element is not Ike, it is that high pressure ridge, which could collapse suddenly or change position. The forecasters are following the high pressure ridge as you can see by comparing the charts. If it stays where it is, the thing is headed for Corpus. If it collapses, cmitch will win a banana, if it curves, I won't be posting for a few days.
Bullsh!t! Are you insane? You don't know what you're talking about! The evidence proves YOU are WRONG! Get a grip!


(Sry, just felt like playing 'Jayhawk' for a minute.)


Looks like you're gonna get hit. Hope it's not too hard. But if it is, it will prove YOU WERE WRONG!!

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post #22 of 69 (permalink) Old 09-11-2008, 07:54 PM
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Dallas could use some rain and fuck Houston. Anyone silly enough to live on the coast...
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post #23 of 69 (permalink) Old 09-11-2008, 08:49 PM
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Looks like I will be a temporary resident of Ft. Worth shortly. Our community has received this for a warning, and I kid you not "Those who chose to ignore the evacuation order and remain in their homes face certain death." They actually said that. My house is seven feet above Clear Lake, (which is not really a lake, it is part of Galveston Bay), and it is on concrete stilts that are another 9 ft high. They are predicting a 16 to 20 ft storm surge. I don't like the way the math works out on that.

This thing is working towards being a horrendous disaster. If it continues on it's current path, which rapidly becoming a forecast instead of a guess, it will hit the main refineries, whipeing out oil and gas production platforms on the way. The effects on the US economy could be utterly catastrophic. The projected flood plan is incredible, entire coastal cities- which for a long time have been the subject of predictions that if they built these suburbs in these places they would be sorry - could be under water for weeks, and millions of people live in these areas. There is also a strange human element thing that could become a major disaster - the officials in Fort Bend County, which is the massive white-flight suburb southwest of Houston, has refused to issue an evacuation order even tho all the counties around them have done so. Millions of people live there, and it is a flood-prone low lying area, so we could have a possible disaster there.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #24 of 69 (permalink) Old 09-11-2008, 09:02 PM
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The people living there are on one of the two.
Seawalls are accidents waiting to happen and why any insurance would be available for a certainty is puzzling ?
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Galveston's seawall is 17 feet high and the forecast storm surge is 20 feet high.

``If that's breached, a whole refinery complex goes under water,'' Rouiller said.

Some parts of the Texas-Louisiana coast may get as much as 15 inches of rain, the hurricane center said.

Ike could inflict between $5 billion and $15 billion of insured damage depending on how much it intensifies, said Steve Smith, atmospheric physicist for the Carvill reinsurance broker.
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
The quote on the seawall affecting a refinery is totally inaccurate, there are no refineries there, the refineries are across the bay from the Galveston in Texas City some twenty miles away. If the seawall is breached, it will be a New Orleans style disaster, the area is populated by thousands of poor black people.

I think the rain estimates are too low, I think it will be more like twenty inches.

5 or 15 billion? If it destroys the BP gasoline refining facility in Texas City, which is looking more certain by the minute, the US will lose 10% of it's gasoline supply overnight. Run that thru a calculator and see what you get. If it destroys the Exxon-Baytown facility, which is right at the very end of Galveston Bay and is the most vulnerable to a storm surge and is the largest gasoline refinery in the world, well then, this whole country is going to go nuts.

Right now there is a chance it is starting to move to the East. For the good of us all, it better.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #25 of 69 (permalink) Old 09-11-2008, 10:30 PM
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Looks like I will be a temporary resident of Ft. Worth shortly.
Hope you're on your way already. Looks like a colossal mess by tomorrow.
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post #26 of 69 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 12:58 PM
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Fools galore.
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GALVESTON, Texas - A massive Hurricane Ike sent white waves crashing over a seawall and tossed a disabled 584-foot freighter in rough water as it steamed toward Texas Friday, threatening to devastate coastal towns and batter America's fourth-largest city.
...
White waves as tall as 15 feet were already crashing over Galveston's seawall. It was enough to scare away Tony Munoz and his wife, Jennifer, who went down to the water to take pictures, then decided that riding out the storm wasn't a good idea after all.
...
Galveston, a barrier island and beach town about 10 feet above sea level, was also the scene of the nation's deadliest hurricane, the great storm of 1900 that left at least 6,000 dead. But that also was before officials had the ability to warn residents that a hurricane was coming, and before the seawall was built to protect the community.

If the storm stays on its projected path, it could head up the Houston ship channel and through Galveston Bay, which Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff called a nightmare scenario.
..
Hurricane Ike whips waves as it moves into Texas - Yahoo! News
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Last edited by mlfun; 09-12-2008 at 01:03 PM.
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post #27 of 69 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 12:59 PM
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Yosey, didn't know you flew down to Galveston for some harvesting.
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post #28 of 69 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 01:24 PM
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People who did not realize how closed to death they were...
Is life really that cheap ?
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post #29 of 69 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 01:29 PM
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Nah, that's an ugly people wet T shirt contest
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post #30 of 69 (permalink) Old 09-12-2008, 11:02 PM
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I wonder what Tina Turner thinks of all this...

Best of luck, FTL.

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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