Metals & Commodities down. Real estate down. Stocks down. Bonds down. Dollar down. - Page 6 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #51 of 67 (permalink) Old 11-16-2008, 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Marsden View Post
...

There is still a rough consensus that we are headed deeper into deflation and that the only rescue will be Fed-sponsored hyperinflation. It would mean that Cash is King followed by Cash is Trash, and try timing that one. The bond markets have been pricing in deflation lately, that is without doubt.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/01/bu...deflation.html

Our troubles are just beginning. I hope everyone has planned accordingly.
How is it possible for the Fed to sponsor hyperinflation again in the next decade given that the crisis was caused by that very action ? Financial firms will be regulated more heavily and we won't see the likes of subpriming again in our lifetimes.
Apart from Ben's helidrop, any ideas ?
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post #52 of 67 (permalink) Old 11-16-2008, 03:34 PM
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I believe we have proof, you play with your own...........
...
Sigh...
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post #53 of 67 (permalink) Old 11-16-2008, 06:25 PM
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Prices up. What's wrong with this picture?

How can we have inflation and deflation at the same time??
Probably because the artificial inflation related to the war is about to come to an end, but not fully factored into the economy yet.

War = inflationary

War End = deflationary

The house prices have been heading south for a good year or more.

The food has been up since most of the cost is OIL, and it has been on a tear. All oil related items have been up.

Now we'll see the reverse, but they'll lower prices only when they have to do so, and not a minute before.

Of course, who knows, maybe the 850B will make its way into the economy by Christmas - but don't hold your breath.
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post #54 of 67 (permalink) Old 11-16-2008, 06:30 PM
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How is it possible for the Fed to sponsor hyperinflation again in the next decade given that the crisis was caused by that very action ? Financial firms will be regulated more heavily and we won't see the likes of subpriming again in our lifetimes.
Apart from Ben's helidrop, any ideas ?
Butting into this conversation...

I don't believe we have had hyperinflation since the 1920s in Germany.

We did have a few years of 10% + real inflation.

Hyperinflation is wheel barrow for a loaf of bread. We're not there yet. We have a date with deflation first.

Kwave winter seems to be coming afterall...

The dow gold ratio must go to 5 or as low as 1.

The year 2000 market high was the inflation adjusted peak for 70 or more years.
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post #55 of 67 (permalink) Old 11-16-2008, 06:34 PM
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Hyperinflation is the only way out of this mess.

We will not see something like Weimar Republic but it might be quite close.

There is no other way people.

Get ready.
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post #56 of 67 (permalink) Old 11-16-2008, 06:44 PM
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I have never made more than $15/hr. I have 5 cars all paid for. 0 credit card balances. I have a 2400sq ft house that is only financed at 70% of it's value. I have it full of toys like 64 and 42 inch TV's, computers, ridiculously overpriced furniture that my wife wanted, a 4 car garage full of tools including a car lift. I don't see what it is that people are racking up credit cars on? Are they buying their school supplies at Prada? I think perhaps people were fooled into thinking that they needed a lot of things that they didn't. It could also be blamed on the microwave mentality everyone has these days. I want it now, whether I have the means or not.

Credit cards are the devil.
Did he get banned for this post? LOL.
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post #57 of 67 (permalink) Old 11-16-2008, 07:58 PM Thread Starter
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Hyperinflation is wheel barrow for a loaf of bread. We're not there yet. We have a date with deflation first.
That's the consensus, I believe, in this thread and elsewhere. However note that Iceland is now experiencing a near-total collapse from the same forces, only acting on a minuscule economy. Canary in the coalmine? And of course there's Zimbabwe. Which is not a canary in a coalmine, not exactly.

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The dow gold ratio must go to 5 or as low as 1.
I don't know for certain why the market does not agree with you on this, only that it doesn't. I'd like to know why.

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Did he get banned for this post? LOL.
Worse, he got excommunicated for it

There is scarcely anything in the world that some man cannot make a little worse, and sell a little more cheaply. The person who buys on price alone is this man's lawful prey. --John Ruskin
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post #58 of 67 (permalink) Old 11-16-2008, 08:26 PM
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I don't know for certain why the market does not agree with you on this, only that it doesn't. I'd like to know why.
Why not ?
Why should gold have any relationship to the Dow ?
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post #59 of 67 (permalink) Old 11-16-2008, 08:28 PM
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Probably because the artificial inflation related to the war is about to come to an end, but not fully factored into the economy yet.

War = inflationary

War End = deflationary
...
The current war is not the cause of recent inflationary numbers.
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post #60 of 67 (permalink) Old 11-16-2008, 08:30 PM
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That's the consensus, I believe, in this thread and elsewhere. However note that Iceland is now experiencing a near-total collapse from the same forces, only acting on a minuscule economy. Canary in the coalmine? And of course there's Zimbabwe. Which is not a canary in a coalmine, not exactly.
...
Even if the feds want hyperinflation, what are the mechanisms available to make that happen NOW ? Japan's attempt to inflate failed once the deflationary expectations set in. The current window of opportunity could be closing fast.
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