McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 34 (permalink) Old 08-31-2008, 12:31 PM Thread Starter
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McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45%

The last Gallup Poll had Obambi/Biden up by 8% after the coronation, but Zogby International has McCain/Palin now up by 2% since Palin joined the ticket. I may be comparing apples and oranges, but it looks like Palin may have given McCain a ten point bump; and the GOP convention hasn't even started--and maybe never will.

The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties - Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama's Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain's increases to 92%.

After the McCain "Veep" announcement on Friday, Palin was almost immediately hailed as a strong conservative, and those voters have rallied to the GOP ticket, the survey shows.

Overall, 52% said the selection of Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee helps the Republican ticket, compared to 29% who said it hurt. Another 10% said it made no difference, while 10% were unsure. Among independent voters, 52% said it helps, while 26% said it would hurt. Among women, 48% said it would help, while 29% said it would hurt the GOP ticket. Among Republicans, the choice was a big hit - as 87% said it would help, and just 3%said it would hurt.

Zogby International

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post #2 of 34 (permalink) Old 08-31-2008, 12:49 PM
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The last Gallup Poll had Obambi/Biden up by 8% after the coronation, but Zogby International has McCain/Palin now up by 2% since Palin joined the ticket. I may be comparing apples and oranges, but it looks like Palin may have given McCain a ten point bump
That's more like apples and bicycles. But nice extrapolation anyway.

Let's wait and see what same polls say about the bump. THAT will be the reference number with which to start working.

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post #3 of 34 (permalink) Old 08-31-2008, 01:18 PM
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Don't you have to subtract 3 to 5 points automatically for the Zogby and the Rasmussen polls when measuring the right?

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post #4 of 34 (permalink) Old 08-31-2008, 02:12 PM
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Exclusive Poll: Obama's Swing Leads
By TIME STAFF

An exclusive TIME/CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll reveals that Barack Obama leads John McCain by several percentage points in three crucial battleground states—Nevada, New Mexico and Pennsylvania—while McCain tops Obama by 1% in Colorado.

Obama's widest margin is in New Mexico, where 53% of registered voters said they prefer the Democrat to 40% who favor McCain. Obama also holds a five-point advantage in Nevada (49% to 44%). Both states went narrowly to George W. Bush in the 2004 election.

In Pennsylvania, Obama leads 48% to 43, while McCain topped Obama in Colorado 47% to 46%. In all state polls, the margin of error is plus-or-minus 4%.

While the results are positive news for an Obama campaign that has seen the race tighten over the past few weeks, there are encouraging signs for McCain as well. In Pennsylvania, where Obama had a 12-point lead in the Real Clear Politics poll average as recently as June, the Republican senator has narrowed the gap to within one point of the margin of error. McCain also holds significant leads with white voters in all four states, ranging from an 8% advantage in Pennsylvania to 15% in Nevada. (Full results here.)

When the field of candidates was expanded beyond the major parties, it's clear that Ralph Nader could again have a significant impact on the Presidential race—though in highly unpredictable ways. In Nevada, Nader was the choice of 6% of respondents, and his presence flattened Obama's lead into a 41%-41% tie. Yet in New Mexico, where Nader polled at 8%, he drew votes almost equally from both major candidates, while in Pennsylvania he siphoned off significant support from McCain; a three-way race there would give Obama 47%, McCain 38% and Nader 7%.

The TIME/CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted with sample sizes between 625 and 669 registered voters in each state between August 24-26. Some of the telephone interviews took place before the Democratic convention while others happened during the convention's first two nights, making it an incomplete measure of the event's effectiveness so far.
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post #5 of 34 (permalink) Old 08-31-2008, 02:40 PM Thread Starter
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Exclusive Poll: Obama's Swing Leads
By TIME STAFF

An exclusive TIME/CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll reveals that Barack Obama leads John McCain by several percentage points in three crucial battleground states—Nevada, New Mexico and Pennsylvania—while McCain tops Obama by 1% in Colorado.

Obama's widest margin is in New Mexico, where 53% of registered voters said they prefer the Democrat to 40% who favor McCain. Obama also holds a five-point advantage in Nevada (49% to 44%). Both states went narrowly to George W. Bush in the 2004 election.

In Pennsylvania, Obama leads 48% to 43, while McCain topped Obama in Colorado 47% to 46%. In all state polls, the margin of error is plus-or-minus 4%.

While the results are positive news for an Obama campaign that has seen the race tighten over the past few weeks, there are encouraging signs for McCain as well. In Pennsylvania, where Obama had a 12-point lead in the Real Clear Politics poll average as recently as June, the Republican senator has narrowed the gap to within one point of the margin of error. McCain also holds significant leads with white voters in all four states, ranging from an 8% advantage in Pennsylvania to 15% in Nevada. (Full results here.)

When the field of candidates was expanded beyond the major parties, it's clear that Ralph Nader could again have a significant impact on the Presidential race—though in highly unpredictable ways. In Nevada, Nader was the choice of 6% of respondents, and his presence flattened Obama's lead into a 41%-41% tie. Yet in New Mexico, where Nader polled at 8%, he drew votes almost equally from both major candidates, while in Pennsylvania he siphoned off significant support from McCain; a three-way race there would give Obama 47%, McCain 38% and Nader 7%.

The TIME/CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted with sample sizes between 625 and 669 registered voters in each state between August 24-26. Some of the telephone interviews took place before the Democratic convention while others happened during the convention's first two nights, making it an incomplete measure of the event's effectiveness so far.
It is meaningless to present poll results collected DURING the democRAT convention, BEFORE Palin was added to McCain's ticket, and BEFORE the Republican convention started. It would also be nice if you posted a link to those data so we can fully evaluate what, if anything, they might mean.

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post #6 of 34 (permalink) Old 08-31-2008, 02:47 PM
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The Zeitgeist declines to link.

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post #7 of 34 (permalink) Old 08-31-2008, 03:04 PM Thread Starter
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The Zeitgeist declines to link.
I think he's the missing link...

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post #8 of 34 (permalink) Old 08-31-2008, 03:12 PM
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post #9 of 34 (permalink) Old 08-31-2008, 03:14 PM
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McCainPalin

Sounds like an antibiotic for STD's
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post #10 of 34 (permalink) Old 08-31-2008, 03:17 PM Thread Starter
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Sounds like an antibiotic for STD's
One of yours?

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