More signs that the Republicans have wrecked our economy - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 16 (permalink) Old 08-14-2008, 08:18 AM Thread Starter
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More signs that the Republicans have wrecked our economy

Open any financial page and just clip the top headlines:

Consumer woes hit stocks- Aug. 14, 2008

Home prices have fallen 7.6% over the past 12 months - Aug. 14, 2008

Another bad jump in foreclosures in July - Aug. 14, 2008

Oil pushes higher on drop in supplies - Aug. 14, 2008

Dollar's rally coming to an end - Aug. 13, 2008

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #2 of 16 (permalink) Old 08-14-2008, 08:22 AM
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This is a consumer-driven economy and the consumers have just begun to slow down their spending. That will be the second part of the one-two whammy we're suffering, the first being the credit meltdown.

Hope and pray that your candidate does not win in November. He will reap the whirlwind.
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post #3 of 16 (permalink) Old 08-14-2008, 08:46 AM Thread Starter
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So did FDR.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #4 of 16 (permalink) Old 08-14-2008, 08:51 AM
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Barack will be taking office, as near as I can guess, at the equivalent of 1930, when most people had no idea of the length or severity of the depression to come. FDR didn't take office until 1932, by which time it was amply clear that Hoover hadn't a clue what to do, and the Republicans were widely held responsible. For this reason alone, I honestly wish this election were a year later. And I hope I'm just being alarmist in saying that it's a whirlwind coming.

Correction: FDR wasn't elected until 1932. He took office in 1933.

Last edited by Marsden; 08-14-2008 at 08:53 AM. Reason: Correction
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post #5 of 16 (permalink) Old 08-14-2008, 09:15 AM Thread Starter
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Joe Sixpack ain't going to like this:

Inflation surges in July - Aug. 14, 2008

He'll have to switch to Miller quarts.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #6 of 16 (permalink) Old 08-14-2008, 10:29 AM
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It;s not going to be pretty but very very soon cash will be king. Here are the best time deposit rates I can come up with within the next 4 days as I have some coming due in Singapore, minimum is USD 50,000 or equivalent............

USD 1 month – 1.99% pa
USD 2 month – 2.2% pa
USD 3 month – 2.33% pa

EUR 1 month – 4.01%pa
EUR 2 month – 4.29%pa
EUR 3 month – 4.47%pa
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post #7 of 16 (permalink) Old 08-14-2008, 10:50 AM
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I've been playing this market based upon the fact that the banks are broke, otherwise things are fine. If the financials go up one day I buy SKF to short them the next and vice versa. Regarding oil I would be monitoring the charts on the S&P to get a picture as to where oil is headed. Should the S&P break its trendline we could see the broader averages sell-off which would precipitate a change in money flows out of equities and back in to the futures markets and further manipulation. Plus, we have the additional consideration that Washington is out on their annual Congressional recess further emboldening Goldman et al as they know, for the time being, they are not in jeopardy of facing the anti-manipulation bill's passage at least until September 5th when Congress reconvenes. So there's your trade. If the S&P breaks down go long crude until Sept 5th when the rhetoric may heat back up.
It is different for every stock, you need to learn TA, and it takes years. But even after you become an expert, you'll still be wrong about 49% of the time! On the "holding too long" issue - you just need to sell when you're up! If the stock has accelerated it's gain well beyond it's 50MA then likely you can sell and buy back later. If you have a loss, you need to reassess your thesis and maybe take a loss, or look for a buy point to double down. On buy points, often stocks trade in a pattern but this is where the years of TA are needed. Otherwise, there might be outside fundamental factors which will signal that it's the right time to buy.
post #8 of 16 (permalink) Old 08-14-2008, 11:47 AM
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Here is the link to the BLS and report.


CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JULY 2008

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
0.5 percent in July, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The July level
of 219.964 (1982-84=100) was 5.6 percent higher than in July 2007.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) increased 0.5 percent in July, prior to seasonal adjustment. The
July level of 216.304 (1982-84=100) was 6.2 percent higher than in July
2007.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
increased 0.4 percent in July on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The
July level of 126.116 (December 1999=100) was 4.8 percent higher than in
July 2007. Please note that the indexes for the post-2006 period are
subject to revision.

CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U advanced 0.8 percent in
July, following a 1.1 percent increase in June. The index for energy rose
sharply for the third straight month, increasing 4.0 percent in July and
accounting for about half of the overall increase in the all items index.
The food index rose 0.9 percent in July after rising 0.8 percent in June.
The index for food at home rose 1.2 percent in July after rising 1.0
percent in June. Indexes for five of the six major grocery store food
groups rose at least 1.0 percent. The index for all items less food and
energy increased 0.3 percent in July, the second straight such increase.
The indexes for apparel and for recreation increased more sharply than in
June, but the indexes for shelter and medical care rose more slowly.

<MORE>

Consumer Price Index Summary

McBear,
Kentucky

Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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post #9 of 16 (permalink) Old 08-14-2008, 12:50 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by concretist View Post
I've been playing this market based upon the fact that the banks are broke, otherwise things are fine. If the financials go up one day I buy SKF to short them the next and vice versa. Regarding oil I would be monitoring the charts on the S&P to get a picture as to where oil is headed. Should the S&P break its trendline we could see the broader averages sell-off which would precipitate a change in money flows out of equities and back in to the futures markets and further manipulation. Plus, we have the additional consideration that Washington is out on their annual Congressional recess further emboldening Goldman et al as they know, for the time being, they are not in jeopardy of facing the anti-manipulation bill's passage at least until September 5th when Congress reconvenes. So there's your trade. If the S&P breaks down go long crude until Sept 5th when the rhetoric may heat back up.
It is different for every stock, you need to learn TA, and it takes years. But even after you become an expert, you'll still be wrong about 49% of the time! On the "holding too long" issue - you just need to sell when you're up! If the stock has accelerated it's gain well beyond it's 50MA then likely you can sell and buy back later. If you have a loss, you need to reassess your thesis and maybe take a loss, or look for a buy point to double down. On buy points, often stocks trade in a pattern but this is where the years of TA are needed. Otherwise, there might be outside fundamental factors which will signal that it's the right time to buy.
Boy, that is much too complicated, you two need some Texas style investment advice: 1) Nail the listings to your barn 2) Shoot them with a heavy-caliber hand gun a few times, above .40 caliber 3) Buy the stocks above the bullet hole, if you own the stocks adjacent to any bullet hole, sell them. Best damn stock advice I ever got was the day I got totally wasted, missing the entire fucking WSJ with five shots, hitting a little below "Apple" on the sixth near miss. Good thing I was out of ammo, I almost killed one of my cows.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address

Last edited by FeelTheLove; 08-14-2008 at 12:55 PM.
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post #10 of 16 (permalink) Old 08-14-2008, 01:08 PM
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Boy, that is much too complicated, you two need some Texas style investment advice: 1) Nail the listings to your barn 2) Shoot them with a heavy-caliber hand gun a few times, above .40 caliber 3) Buy the stocks above the bullet hole, if you own the stocks adjacent to any bullet hole, sell them. Best damn stock advice I ever got was the day I got totally wasted, missing the entire fucking WSJ with five shots, hitting a little below "Apple" on the sixth near miss. Good thing I was out of ammo, I almost killed one of my cows.
Maybe I need to switch from the .338 lapua to my hand canon to achieve true synchronicity between the technicals and trajectory?
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