How do you know that?
I don't "know" that, however, as with most projections, those based on data that has been verified by the agents most concerned with the veracity of the data are more probably correct than those that are based on faith. The agencies with the greatest interest in identifying deposits of oil that can be accessed for profit are the oil companies. The oil companies went through a stock price manipulation scare, with BP and Shell suffering the most, by claiming certain identified deposits they owned rights to were or would be accessible in the near term. This boosted stock prices as the oil company "portfolio" of interest to investors is what they have on line to replace what they just pumped out of the ground. Overstating the size of the reserves is always tempting, and in the age of Enron is was all the rage. ExxonMobil was always conservative about their reserves, as their approach has been to buy their way into any and all deposits that are about to be harvested. Anyway, Shell and BP took a shot in the shorts a few years back. Go check their, and ExxonMobil's portfolios. The rate of bringing new oil on line is not keeping up with the depletion of active fields with similar accessibility.
The OCS reserves and ANWR don't come on line for say 5 to 7 years. There is nothing to point to world wide consumption dropping significantly unless the US drops its demand for oil. All we have to do is observe what others who have paid higher prices for petroleum products and implement the least painful measures they have adopted.
Drilling our reserves today makes it impossible to access that oil in the future, when oil is more likely to become really scarce. To balance payments, we should just stop buying from countries who's only attractive feature to us is that their governments allow us to buy shit that people in their countries make while they are not paid a competitive wage. While it may actually improve their situation it does nothing to improve ours.
Also, has anybody advocated for a single solution? I haven't. I think alll sorts of approaches are the most effective solution.
How do we get the most avenues attempted? By having great rewards.
How do you get great rewards?
You know. Free markets.
I agree until the freemarket is no longer free. At present the dependence on oil has put oil companies above the law, and even in a position where they write the law and pick the people who are put up for election to positions of power in the government of the United States. It is getting to the point where too much of a good thing has begun to rot the system from the inside. Jim