Gallup Daily: Obama Maintains Slim Edge Over McCain - Page 18 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #171 of 281 (permalink) Old 08-20-2008, 09:41 PM
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But I know he wasn't on vacation some of those days... Can you explain that?
Yes

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post #172 of 281 (permalink) Old 08-25-2008, 04:49 PM Thread Starter
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The Obambi bounce?



Gallup Daily: Race Tied as Democratic Convention Starts

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post #173 of 281 (permalink) Old 08-25-2008, 07:30 PM
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I am impressed with McCain. After three months of negative advertisements and wandering around he has managed to, for three days in the past two weeks break [I hesitate to say "surge"] above 44%.

I guess consistency is a good trait.

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post #174 of 281 (permalink) Old 08-25-2008, 08:31 PM Thread Starter
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I am impressed with McCain. After three months of negative advertisements and wandering around he has managed to, for three days in the past two weeks break [I hesitate to say "surge"] above 44%.

I guess consistency is a good trait.
I guess what puzzles me is how Obambi can be so low in the polls when all polls show that about 70% of the public want democRATS to win it all. How can he be at only 44% when everyone seems to want a sea change in Washington. Doesn't it make you wonder?

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post #175 of 281 (permalink) Old 08-25-2008, 09:44 PM
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I guess what puzzles me is how Obambi can be so low in the polls when all polls show that about 70% of the public want democRATS to win it all. How can he be at only 44% when everyone seems to want a sea change in Washington. Doesn't it make you wonder?
Sea Change? Yes, we actually do want the SEA to wash Washington away [except for the museums, and Room 239 at the Hay-Adams].

While I razz you about the ups and downs of polls , I really don't think these daily snapshots are all that accurate. While they might reflect the answer to direct questions, they don't reflect mood of the body of voters Nationally and they don't get into the overlapping dynamics for which discrete questions fail to glean answers.

There are also two other variables. The 10% who pick either neither, other or don't know and the 2% margin of error for each days polling.

So to me it simply means that most people are playing it close to their chest. Look closer at how the candidates are doing in the red vs blue states. In those Obama is targeting higher in Blue states than McCain is in Red States. That is going to make a difference in Electoral Votes come November. Candidate Support by "Red," "Purple," and "Blue" States

So, the variables are just too many to look at a polling number. We as a country like to "keep score". Elections don't work like that until we actually get to Election Day. Unless Katherine Harris is on the job.

Wonder if her replacement has gotten a boob job recently. That could be a harbinger.

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post #176 of 281 (permalink) Old 08-25-2008, 09:49 PM Thread Starter
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Sea Change? Yes, we actually do want the SEA to wash Washington away [except for the museums, and Room 239 at the Hay-Adams].

While I razz you about the ups and downs of polls , I really don't think these daily snapshots are all that accurate. While they might reflect the answer to direct questions, they don't reflect mood of the body of voters Nationally and they don't get into the overlapping dynamics for which discrete questions fail to glean answers.

There are also two other variables. The 10% who pick either neither, other or don't know and the 2% margin of error for each days polling.

So to me it simply means that most people are playing it close to their chest. Look closer at how the candidates are doing in the red vs blue states. In those Obama is targeting higher in Blue states than McCain is in Red States. That is going to make a difference in Electoral Votes come November. Candidate Support by "Red," "Purple," and "Blue" States

So, the variables are just too many to look at a polling number. We as a country like to "keep score". Elections don't work like that until we actually get to Election Day. Unless Katherine Harris is on the job.

Wonder if her replacement has gotten a boob job recently. That could be a harbinger.
Sorry, I meant to say SEE change...

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post #177 of 281 (permalink) Old 08-25-2008, 10:04 PM
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I am impressed with McCain. After three months of negative advertisements and wandering around he has managed to, for three days in the past two weeks break [I hesitate to say "surge"] above 44%.

I guess consistency is a good trait.
If you spent as much time with polls as you do admiring your 2.8cm, you'd be able to correctly understand that negative ads bring your opponent down in numbers, but don't raise your own. Voters hate negativity, but depend on it to define the candidates.

As reported today, the 13th Battleground poll in the last six years showed that Question D-3 again gave consistent results for the 6 years that 60% of respondents consider themselves "very conservative or conservative", 2% consider themselves "moderate" and about 30% call themselves liberal or very liberal".

So, politically, our electorate is a center-right group on the spectrum and has been since Reagan. Clinton got elected as a "New Democrat, implying he had moved to the center. In order for BHO and O'biden to win they must bring in a ton of white males and that means facing a lot of "bitter-clingers" who are Catholic. These are the old Reagan Democrats. Considering that BHO voted against an Illinois bill to protect viable newborns from medical neglect (aka infanticide) after a botched second trimester abortion, it's going to be tough for B&B.

One can pick up this "ordinary, working class background" theme beginning with Michele's speech tonight and this will run through the DNC. She never even mentioned that she and her husband graduated from Harvard Law, in an effort to minimize their elitism.

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post #178 of 281 (permalink) Old 08-25-2008, 10:08 PM
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Sorry, I meant to say SEE change...
I know, but it was the fun part.

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post #179 of 281 (permalink) Old 08-25-2008, 10:11 PM
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She never even mentioned that she and her husband graduated from Harvard Law, in an effort to minimize their elitism.
You think they're good enough to work as servants in one of McCain's innumerable and uncounted houses? Elitism my ass. Get a grip.

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post #180 of 281 (permalink) Old 08-25-2008, 10:20 PM
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It's well acknowledged within their campaign that they, esp BHO, has a problem with perceived elitism. Having earned $4 million last year, living in a $1.6 million house and both graduates of Harvard law isn't something they want front and center about themselves. I'm fine with their success, but the problem is that they have to attract bitter-clingers to vote for them. Get it now?

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