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post #61 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-21-2008, 11:39 AM
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post #62 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-21-2008, 12:37 PM
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The last time time UYG touched the upper bollinger band(20) was around $35 in May 08. If you look at UYG's weekly chart, you will notice how the RSI(14) has formed three higher oversold lows while the price has been going lower. This is positive divergence. The weekly RSI(2) was at all time low of .423. This tells me UYG is going higher, not lower. I still think the DOW goes to 10,000. It just crossed below the weekly MA(200). This is extremely bearish.
I can't find any fundamentals that suggest the market has bottomed. I spent at least 20 hours this past week researching and calculating and nothing came up.

I don't see where Paulson gets his "our economy has got very strong long-term fundamentals, solid fundamentals." It would be nice for him to actually list them or point out which fundamentals would be considered, by any measuring "strong".

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post #63 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-21-2008, 12:50 PM
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I can't find any fundamentals that suggest the market has bottomed. I spent at least 20 hours this past week researching and calculating and nothing came up.

I don't see where Paulson gets his "our economy has got very strong long-term fundamentals, solid fundamentals." It would be nice for him to actually list them or point out which fundamentals would be considered, by any measuring "strong".
I suspect Paulson's talking about the same things President Bush mentioned recently: Our economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. While the unemployment rate has risen, it remains at 5.5 percent, which is still low by historical standards. And the economy continued to grow in the first quarter of this year. The growth is slower than we would have liked, but it was growth nonetheless. The President acknowledged that we're going through a tough time, but our economy has continued growing, consumers are spending, businesses are investing, exports continue increasing, and American productivity remains strong. We can have confidence in the long-term foundation of our economy, IMO, and I believe we will come through this challenge stronger than ever before.

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post #64 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-21-2008, 01:53 PM
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I suspect Paulson's talking about the same things President Bush mentioned recently: Our economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. While the unemployment rate has risen, it remains at 5.5 percent, which is still low by historical standards. And the economy continued to grow in the first quarter of this year. The growth is slower than we would have liked, but it was growth nonetheless. The President acknowledged that we're going through a tough time, but our economy has continued growing, consumers are spending, businesses are investing, exports continue increasing, and American productivity remains strong. We can have confidence in the long-term foundation of our economy, IMO, and I believe we will come through this challenge stronger than ever before.
Watch out goldilocks, we could still have a couple bears left.
I still haven't seen the capitulation selling that convinces me last weeks rally isn't just a headfake. I was fooled in march, so I need confirmation of any rally, and the volume just hasn't done it for me yet.

This smells like a classic bull trap. The DOW has formed a head and shoulders and we are below the neckline(around 12,000). As a general rule, a bottom forms the same distance of the top to the neckline. So roughly 14,000-12,000 = 2,000, so 12,000(neckline) - 2,000 = Dow 10,000. We may have enough downward momentum to drop to 9,000-9,500.

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post #65 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-21-2008, 01:57 PM Thread Starter
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I suspect Paulson's talking about the same things President Bush mentioned recently: Our economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. While the unemployment rate has risen, it remains at 5.5 percent, which is still low by historical standards. And the economy continued to grow in the first quarter of this year. The growth is slower than we would have liked, but it was growth nonetheless. The President acknowledged that we're going through a tough time, but our economy has continued growing, consumers are spending, businesses are investing, exports continue increasing, and American productivity remains strong. We can have confidence in the long-term foundation of our economy, IMO, and I believe we will come through this challenge stronger than ever before.
One thing, also to note when unemployment rates are low. Employers have a tough time recruiting competent workers because 3 to 4% of the 'workforce' are undesirable clods who couldn't pass a piss test with fake whiz. Our local unemployment is down to 3.9%, but, we have lost 1/3 of our total workforce to larger communities, leaving us stressed with a labor shortage. Our mayor even called unemployment that was below 4% a 'labor shortage' and he was absolutely right.

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post #66 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-21-2008, 02:01 PM
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I can't find any fundamentals that suggest the market has bottomed. I spent at least 20 hours this past week researching and calculating and nothing came up.

I don't see where Paulson gets his "our economy has got very strong long-term fundamentals, solid fundamentals." It would be nice for him to actually list them or point out which fundamentals would be considered, by any measuring "strong".
I'm with you on this one, the fundamental in no way support a rally. You might have already read this rant by Barry Ritholtz in Seeking Alpha, if not give it a minute.

---------------------------------------------

The collection of ne'er do wells, clueless dolts, political hacks, and oh, let's just be blunt and call them what they are -- total Idiots -- expands into an ever larger circle.

While the Republic burns due to the unsavory combination of incompetence, ideological rigidity, and crony capitalism, the fools and assclowns seem ever more determined to avoid any personal responsibility for the damages they have wrought. Instead, they flail about blindly, blaming everything and everyone -- except their own horrific negligence.

This is financial incompetence writ on a scale far grander than anything seen for centuries.

As a nation, our institutions have failed us: Under Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve slept through the most reckless and irresponsible expansion of bank lending in history for reasons of ideological purity. His opposition to the Fed’s regulatory role reached the point of malfeasance long ago. History is unlikely to be kind to the Maestro.

There is a choice to be made: Either we regulate the Banks, or leave it to the vagaries of the free markets to punish those who trade with, or place their assets in the wrong institutions. But for God's sake, do not give us the worst of both worlds -- do not allow banks the freedom to make horrific but preventable mistakes (i.e., only lending money to those who can pay it back), but then expect the taxpayers to foot the trillion dollar bill.

That's not capitalism, it's not socialism, it's not regulation, and it's sure as hell isn't what free markets are. Our language is insufficient to describe this hodge-podge system, other than to call it a random patchwork of quasi-capitalism, quadrennial-socialism, and politics as usual. Ideological idiocy is the only phrase I can muster that has any resonance with the daily insanity.

We have entered into a fit of Orwellian madness: The American Capitalists, long the globe's leading advocates for free markets, have become near Socialists. Halfway around the world, the Chinese Communists have picked up the baton, and are moving rapidly towards a form of Capitalism. Ironically, it is the once largest communist nations -- the Chinese and the Russians -- who hold much of Fannie and Freddie's paper.

Hey comrades, who's selling the rope to whom?

Perhaps the rescue of "Phony and Fraudy" are not so much a bail out of American homeowners as it is a desperate attempt to stay in the good graces of our friendly global bankers. We are the world's largest debtor nation, and as such, we depend upon the kindness of strangers -- be they Japanese or Europeans or Abu Dhabians -- or even former communists.

Back in the States, something beyond cognitive dissonance is occurring -- this is full blown case of dementia unfolding in the public sphere. When this era of excess and absurdity is treated by historians in the future, the question I expect to be asked most is not why many of these people weren't jailed for their financial felonies. Rather, I expect them to wonder why so many of these folk weren't placed in protective custody, and heavily medicated, for the only rational explanation for their statements and behaviors is that they have gone so far beyond the bend as to be completely and totally insane.

Massively over-leveraged companies? Blame short sellers.

Wildly under-capitalized financial firms? Blame rumors.

Heinously poor corporate management? Blame a Senator.

It is as if someone is running around Washington D.C. with a ball-peen hammer, smacking senior government officials on their skulls. If you find the standard finger pointing hard to fathom, perhaps blunt head trauma is a better explanations for the absurdities proferred.

Books will be written about this period of time, and our descendants will wonder in awe as to how this was allowed to happen. Tulips got nothing on us! Its not just the total dollar value of the losses that have exceeded all other global fits of financial madness combined, but rather, how so many warning signs were so blithely ignored by so many and for so long. What was wrong with these people, the authors and historians will wonder. Did the antibiotics in the food supply drive them mad? Did the High Fructose Corn Syrup compromise their ability to think? Some form of viral plague? Roid rage? What else could have created such a mass delusion amongst not just the populace, but their leadership and institutions?

Indy Mac goes belly up, having lost $900 million this year alone. Its shares fell 87% in 2007 and then its value dropped (on top of last year's collapse) another 95% this year-to-date. The stock fell to 28 cents yesterday. Some estimates of the total bad loans made by this somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 billion dollars -- and the Office of Thrift Supervision blames a senator who is investigating how much of the FDIC's $53 Billion this is going to eat up, with Wall Street estimates ranging from 15% to 30%. The towering incompetence of OTS is incomprehensible, but it is their colossal gall that is truly stupefying.

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post #67 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-21-2008, 02:11 PM
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One thing, also to note when unemployment rates are low. Employers have a tough time recruiting competent workers because 3 to 4% of the 'workforce' are undesirable clods who couldn't pass a piss test with fake whiz. Our local unemployment is down to 3.9%, but, we have lost 1/3 of our total workforce to larger communities, leaving us stressed with a labor shortage. Our mayor even called unemployment that was below 4% a 'labor shortage' and he was absolutely right.
Interesting perspective.
Another small percentage would be clods in undesirable lines of work. And don't forget the pebbles(?) who collect unemployment but has no intention to work ?
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post #68 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-21-2008, 02:14 PM
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He's got some kind of problem w/ his bottom tonight. Must be the water...
That must have been some bad shit.
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post #69 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-21-2008, 02:42 PM
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I suspect Paulson's talking about the same things President Bush mentioned recently: Our economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. While the unemployment rate has risen, it remains at 5.5 percent, which is still low by historical standards. And the economy continued to grow in the first quarter of this year. The growth is slower than we would have liked, but it was growth nonetheless. The President acknowledged that we're going through a tough time, but our economy has continued growing, consumers are spending, businesses are investing, exports continue increasing, and American productivity remains strong. We can have confidence in the long-term foundation of our economy, IMO, and I believe we will come through this challenge stronger than ever before.
We WILL come through this stronger. That will happen. But to look at what Bush said through a slightly different perspective...

The unemployment rate is continuing to grow and with 100M more Americans in just the past 40 YEARS making historical standards moot as today's 5.5% equates to 5.5Million more unemployed people than the 5.5% of 1968 and that number doesn't even count those who are not actively collecting unemployment benefits.

Growth is slower that we would like but it is growth nonetheless, except it is not keeping up with inflation so it really is not growth. Consumers are spending, and most of that spending is with credit cards, contributing to the debtor society which cannot be balanced with home equity any longer. Exports have increased, but only at the expense of the US Dollar and the higher cost of Imports and a higher trade deficit.

And finally Productivity is up. That is a good thing until you consider it calculates how much production is gained per worker and that robotics, offshoring and "overtimed" salaried employees contribute to that number. Great for stock market. Blows for the actual economy.

It's all a matter of perspective. Real balance is VERY important and that is what is missing in this economic climate.

McBear,
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post #70 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-21-2008, 04:09 PM
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Watch out goldilocks, we could still have a couple bears left.
I still haven't seen the capitulation selling that convinces me last weeks rally isn't just a headfake. I was fooled in march, so I need confirmation of any rally, and the volume just hasn't done it for me yet.

This smells like a classic bull trap. The DOW has formed a head and shoulders and we are below the neckline(around 12,000). As a general rule, a bottom forms the same distance of the top to the neckline. So roughly 14,000-12,000 = 2,000, so 12,000(neckline) - 2,000 = Dow 10,000. We may have enough downward momentum to drop to 9,000-9,500.
I think it's called a "bear rally" (classic) not a bull trap, and I agree we may not have seen capitulation yet; but I wouldn't be waiting for a guarantee that we are headed higher for the rest of the year... Timing is a fools game!

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