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post #21 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 08:56 PM
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^ Or perhaps there was less speculative buying of oil.

See, we can't know, because of that Enron Loophole issue I've brought up before. It would be NICE to have actionable data upon which to make investment and policy decisions, but someone (you can figure out who) decided it was more important for a fucking criminal to get his way at our cumulative expense.

Google it.
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post #22 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 09:13 PM
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I am convinced that anyone who would know the true direction of the stock market on any single day would retire on the tropical island with a lot of concubines instead of reading and writing useless $hit on the Internet forums...

Just my $0.0135 after taxes...
There are definitely people who make the market do their bidding. We just never hear about them.

Take for example today's news on SemGroup Energy Partners (SGLP). What a bizarre, almost criminal sounding story.

The Journal Record - Article
Liquidity problems have forced SemGroup LP to consider a variety of recovery efforts, including Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the privately held Tulsa company announced Thursday evening.

This followed a wild session on Wall Street that saw a 51.7-percent plunge in the Nasdaq stock of SemGroup Energy Partners LP, a public company SemGroup LP launched one year ago Friday.

SemGroup LP, which remains the master partner and majority owner of Tulsa-based SemGroup Energy Partners, is considering alternatives including raising additional equity and debt capital to the voluntary bankruptcy petition.

Its struggle threatens the smaller company's welfare since SemGroup Energy, which operates a variety of midstream energy assets, derives a substantial majority of its revenues through a Throughput Agreement and a Terminalling and Storage Agreement with SemGroup LP and its subsidiaries. The master limited partnership also has entered into an Amended and Restated Omnibus Agreement and other agreements with its parent that address the provision of general and administrative and operating services to SGLP.

"Until our parent advises us of their course of action, we cannot fully evaluate and are not yet prepared to comment on how any such action taken by our parent might affect SGLP," said SemGroup Energy President and Chief Executive Kevin Foxx.

Foxx used Thursday's announcement to stress to investors and others the important services his firm provides: crude oil and liquid asphalt cement terminalling and storage services and crude oil gathering and transportation.
"We own valuable assets in strategic locations and remain positioned to provide midstream services," he said.

After a day of silence as its stock stumbled, some Tulsa securities analysts wondered whether any statement would pacify investor anger.

"I called our traders," said James Carnett, portfolio manager for Fredric E. Russell Investment Management Co. of Tulsa, as the stock's decline passed 40 percent. "They could find nothing on the wires. I called all of our competitors, anybody who knew anything on this company. They could tell me nothing.

"What baffles me about this is the average trading volume on this stock is, like, 68,000 shares, and it traded over 5 million shares," he said of Thursday's activity. "That's just huge, with no news."

The lack of any formal announcement through normal business hours, and into the evening, spurred many water-cooler rumors about Tulsa-based SemGroup Energy Partners. For many who had watched companies like Williams Communications and CFS struggle, the plunge brought a state of shock.

"This is a big red flag," said Greg Womack, owner of Womack Investment Advisers in Edmond, who wondered if Thursday afternoon's hectic trading represented the snowball effect of someone unloading a cache of holdings. "To unload that many shares, they would have had to file first. They may do it tomorrow. They may be public tomorrow."

SemGroup units finished Thursday at $11, tumbling $11.80 through a turbulent day that saw many Oklahoma energy companies suffer from this week's falling oil prices.

Ironically, Thursday marked the day before SemGroup Energy's first anniversary as a public company. That opening launch surprised even supporters as SGLP units rose 33.27 percent to $29.32, even after underwriters had boosted its starting price $1 from its $19-$21 range. Following energy futures, the SGLP units had bounced around the mid-$20s for most of the year after their investor honeymoon.

"That jump was a complement to the company," said M. Jake Dollarhide, the owner of Longbow Asset Management of Tulsa. "There's nothing wrong with that. Most people felt rather comfortable with that price, given the assets and the potential."

That points to the most aggravating element in Thursday's plunge: the perceived value of both the master limited partnership and the much larger SemGroup LP. On its same market breakdown that showed SGLP's 51.7-percent drop Thursday, Reuters.com showed analyst recommendations for SGLP at nearly the top of the "buy" grade.

"I looked at the Morningstar reports," said Womack. "They were fairly bullish on it just a couple of weeks ago. The cash flow is strong, which attributes to that $25 to $30 range."

IPO Home by Renaissance Capital had projected the Tulsa MLP would have annual revenue of $100 million, and net income of $30 million.

With its first quarterly earnings report in May, SemGroup Energy Partners reported a profit of $9.8 million, or 31 cents per diluted share, with revenues totaling $40.2 million. That countered a prior-year net loss of $12.3 million from revenues of $8.6 million, while the firm had been a private company, without any revenue from gathering and transportation, terminalling and storage services.

That reputation for quality had many non-clients calling Dollarhide for advice.

"The assets are there, the momentum definitely seems there as far as commodity prices, leadership seems to be in place," he reflected. "On the surface, it seems to be full speed ahead. And then this happens, and no announcement."

That also made Thursday's silence even more aggravating.

"The fact you didn't hear anything from the company was rather shocking," he said. "It's almost kind of like when bad things are happening and the entity doesn't say anything, it feeds the flame."
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post #23 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 09:38 PM
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You've commented on that at least twice. No, the refiners didn't mistakenly order an extra ship full of crude.

The answer lies way down the supply chain in reduced gasoline demand due to consumer conservation.

You just forgot there are two sides to the equation.
No, I didn't forget. I just read the wording in the Energy report [and the analysis written about it] and they were written ODD. While I did remember both sides of the equation, it appeared that many of the commodity traders did not. Surprise and unexpected are not words you want to see in an analysis of a strategic commodity inventory.

And I think the answer really lies in the fact that this has been an artificial bubble that has never been supported by supply/demand logic. It has been supported by trading machinations and churn. That ALWAYS blows up at some point.

The fact that demand is down by under 400,000 bbl/d [2%] is less a trading factor but still a very good start for a trend.

Oil tumbles again; prices fall over $10 in 2 days

By ADAM SCHRECK, AP Business Writer Wed Jul 16, 4:12 PM ET

NEW YORK - Oil prices settled sharply lower for the second time in a row Wednesday, leaving crude more than $10 cheaper in just two days of frenzied trading and prompting speculation that the hard-charging market may be running out of steam.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell $4.14 to settle at $134.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier sinking as low as $132. The drop follows a $6.44 sell-off Tuesday, crude's biggest since the Gulf War.

The two-day slide of $10.58 a barrel marks a dramatic turnaround in crude prices, which as recently as Friday traded at record highs above $147 a barrel. But even with this week's sell-off, prices remain about 80 percent above where they were a year ago and up about 40 percent from the start of the year.

Analysts are unsure whether the drop represents a long-term shift in sentiment or simply a brief correction to crude's monthslong bull run. But the dizzying decline is prompting market veterans to ask how much support remains for such high prices.

"It's a sign that maybe the bull market is losing strength," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc.

Perhaps just as significant as the declines was the sudden increase in volatility. Prices whipsawed by more than $10 Tuesday and $7 Wednesday ahead of the expiration of options contracts this week.

"I think anyone you talk to would have to be surprised by the magnitude of these huge price swings. This is extreme price volatility that no one can predict," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates. Such large up-and-down swings, he added, can indicate the market is nearing its top.

Sharply increased crude and gasoline supplies were the immediate cause of Wednesday's decline.

The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude oil supplies rose by 3 million barrels, or 1 percent, last week. That is the opposite of the 3 million barrel draw analysts surveyed by energy research firm Platts expected. Gasoline supplies also leapt unexpectedly.

"The numbers were decidedly bearish on just about all fronts," Ritterbusch said.

Industry observers cautioned that prices could still bounce back, just as they have following large drops in recent weeks.

"I do expect this bubble to burst. Is this is it? It might be ... but I'm not ready to say so yet," analyst and trader Stephen Schork said.

A number of market participants speculated that at least some of the week's sell-off was the result of cash-strapped banks selling energy contracts to raise money for other needs.

And widely used computers programed to sell once prices fall to certain thresholds can accelerate declines, much as an avalanche gains steam the further it slides.

"It absolutely adds a cascading effect," Schork said.

Yet concerns are growing that high energy prices are leading to real shifts in consumer behavior that could cause demand to shrivel considerably.

Oil tumbles again; prices fall over $10 in 2 days - Yahoo! News

McBear,
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post #24 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 03:30 PM
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The negatives usually come from discussions of the fundamentals, not the stock market. Only time that is in play is when we discuss just how much it has dropped in a given timeframe. In this case 3200 in nine months. Hard to get excited when the DOW has lost 24% of its total value in 9 months. To put it in perspective, it has to gain 30% off yesterday to BREAK EVEN. One day means nothing [even a very good day like today].





.
And the only time you don't want to discuss the stock market is when it is going up. How sad...

Eat your heart out bear: http://www.cnbc.com/id/25739267/site/14081545

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post #25 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 05:48 PM
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And the only time you don't want to discuss the stock market is when it is going up. How sad...

Eat your heart out bear: Banks Rally, Stocks Up 3.6% for Week - Market Overview * US * News * Story - MSNBC.com
Dude, I am more that willing to discuss it ANY TIME.

And as for the Financial stocks going up, I think that might be short lived. There are still more skeletons in those closets that have yet to pop out. That sector is NOT clear yet, even with a blank check from the FED.

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post #26 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 05:51 PM
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Dude, I am more that willing to discuss it ANY TIME.

And as for the Financial stocks going up, I think that might be short lived. There are still more skeletons in those closets that have yet to pop out. That sector is NOT clear yet, even with a blank check from the FED.
Friend of mine agrees. Says there is another round of default coming. He explained the timing but I don't recall. It had something to do with unemployment running-out and extensions coming due or some such.

I'm staying out until October or so.

B

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post #27 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 09:31 PM
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The banks have so overreacted to the credit bubble that they are not making good decisions now. But I believe the worst is behind us.

Don't believe everything you think
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post #28 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 09:37 PM
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I'm betting my money, that it is!

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post #29 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-19-2008, 09:01 AM
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U.S. Stocks Break Six-Week Slump as Citigroup Beats Estimates

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

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post #30 of 118 (permalink) Old 07-19-2008, 12:19 PM
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