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post #21 of 34 (permalink) Old 07-12-2008, 11:04 PM
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Mcbear, man is hardwired to believe in something, whether it is a higher power, an omnipotent force or the power of nature. What you don't realize, is that it takes much more faith to believe what you readily state you believe in. That is, absence of an omnipotent power in favor of order being made out of chaos. You believe that a natural force caused the creation of the universe, but you have no data to back it up because no scientist has ever been able to duplicate this force. I and others believe that more is at play than that. That's all fine if that's what you believe. But, you are doing the exact same thing you accuse me and Dr. Spencer of, and that is basing a belief structure on a theory you can't back up.

As for the thousands of scientist thing: Thousands of scientists have spent 80 years and TRILLIONS of dollars researching cancer, but have, supposedly, found no cure. One or two doctors can cure it and they are run out of the country. The same with Global Warming/Climate Change: The reason there are not thousands of scientists climbing on board with guys like Dr. Spencer is because Dr. Spencer is ostracized by the scientific community, treated like a leper, because he dares to break from the ranks and presnt REAL evidence that is ignored by your scientists. Since these 'thousands' of scientists you so readily put your faith in DEPEND on research dollars by being advocates of this 'THEORY', they are not about to jeopardize their reputations and their funding by pursuing a position that isn't 'helpful' to the mainstream scientific community. So, it's the snowball effect. Bullshit begets bullshit and negativity begets negativity and in the end, you'll have this big, giant dungball of scientific stupidity that I guarantee you will be laughed at, 50 or so years from now.
Nope, Man is hardwired to THINK. Take the best information he has available and work with it. Some choose faith to answer their questions, usually because they started when they were 2 years old.

You assume when you say that I believe that a "natural force caused the creation of the universe, but you have no data to back it up because no scientist has ever been able to duplicate this force" that I chose to care. That knowing that, or believing that makes a difference. That is the difference between those who believe in a deity and those who do not. It matters to those who do and they think it matters to those who don't.

The Universe IS. Period. Am interesting in knowing it's genisis, sure. Does it affect my core beliefs if I don't, not remotely. The Universe is way to big to assume that we will ever know its secrets.

As for Spencer, he is not shown the respect you seem to think he has earned due to his lack of scientific method in drawing his conclusions. Basically his sloppy work. A perfect example is the chart you finally posted. "Al Gore Predicts Only 10 Years Left..." It shows a trend chart WITHOUT providing sufficient trending, choosing instead to waste 70% of the chart on a Political Message instead of trying to actually show relevant data that, if accurate might just prove his point.

THAT is why he is not respected.

As for your guarantee that the research of 1000's will be laughed at. Your grandkids will be the ones to grade that guarantee. Go ahead and put it in writing for them now so they will have it in 2058. See just how smart grandpa was.

I am 100% comfortable with my decisions on this. They are founded on research, reading, logic and trust in some very smart people.

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post #22 of 34 (permalink) Old 07-13-2008, 08:19 AM
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Nope, Man is hardwired to THINK. Take the best information he has available and work with it. Some choose faith to answer their questions, usually because they started when they were 2 years old.

You assume when you say that I believe that a "natural force caused the creation of the universe, but you have no data to back it up because no scientist has ever been able to duplicate this force" that I chose to care. That knowing that, or believing that makes a difference. That is the difference between those who believe in a deity and those who do not. It matters to those who do and they think it matters to those who don't.

The Universe IS. Period. Am interesting in knowing it's genisis, sure. Does it affect my core beliefs if I don't, not remotely. The Universe is way to big to assume that we will ever know its secrets.

As for Spencer, he is not shown the respect you seem to think he has earned due to his lack of scientific method in drawing his conclusions. Basically his sloppy work. A perfect example is the chart you finally posted. "Al Gore Predicts Only 10 Years Left..." It shows a trend chart WITHOUT providing sufficient trending, choosing instead to waste 70% of the chart on a Political Message instead of trying to actually show relevant data that, if accurate might just prove his point.

THAT is why he is not respected.

As for your guarantee that the research of 1000's will be laughed at. Your grandkids will be the ones to grade that guarantee. Go ahead and put it in writing for them now so they will have it in 2058. See just how smart grandpa was.

I am 100% comfortable with my decisions on this. They are founded on research, reading, logic and trust in some very smart people.
If there is one thing I've learned in my 42 years, is that these so called 'scientists', these 'educated' cream of the crop, seem to jump to conclusions BEFORE irrefutable facts are presented. Such is the case with GCC/GW. It is easy to draw a conclusion, THEN gather 'evidence' to prove it. Once that 'Theory' becomes an accepted baseline belief, such as Evolution has, no amount of evidence that disproves that theory will be listened to or accepted.

Mcbear, you seem to conveniently forget, that it was just 20 years ago, these same scientists were screaming 'Global Cooling' and 'The Next Ice Age'. All areas of our country and the world were experiencing severe winters, record snow falls and record cold. 'Evidence' was presented to back up the assertion that this weather phenomena was a real threat to mankind. But, this severe cooling trend has all but disappeared and the issue is now being replaced with Global Warming. The difference is that no one thought they knew what to do about Global Cooling but all these 1000's of scientist that you worship at the feet of, are now advocating that we make drastic, life changing plans at a cost of trillions of dollars to curb what is believed to be a man made problem and only man in his arrogance, can fix it. Sorry, but I and many others are not buying what you guys are selling. Why? Because these scientists, who swear to follow the basic scientific rules of Hypothesis-Theory-Fact, are ignoring that to jump to a conclusion when they have admittedly not completed their work, by a long shot.

Dr. Spencer is not respected by you because you say he makes a political statement instead of a scientific one. What in the hell do you think your group of scientists have been doing since the start of this bullshit? I've seen crapumentarys made and text books published teaching our children an unproven theory as FACT, without the necessary data to firmly conclude that man is, indeed, the causative factor in this weather trend, that is clearly, at this moment, reversing itself as we speak. But you ignore it because you SAY Spencer did not provide the necessary scientific facts with his chart. Spencer is simply gleaning the data from NASA satellite information to make a mockery of this Global Warming non-sense and THAT is what I really think rubs you the wrong way. He is not a sloppy scientist, he is a lone scientist that isn't respected, anyway, because he dares to challenge the 1000's of IDIOTS who have drawn a conclusion and teach it as fact without conclusive scientific basis. These 1000's of scientists will only destroy REAL science because the more it is determined they are WRONG, their research dollars will dry up and their reputations will be dashed. They can't have that so, that is why it's important to them to have certain 'solutions' enacted NOW, so they can lay claim that it was these actions they put into place that are responsible for a cooling trend that has already begun.

Smoke and mirrors.

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post #23 of 34 (permalink) Old 07-13-2008, 08:26 PM
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If there is one thing I've learned in my 42 years, is that these so called 'scientists', these 'educated' cream of the crop, seem to jump to conclusions BEFORE irrefutable facts are presented. Such is the case with GCC/GW. It is easy to draw a conclusion, THEN gather 'evidence' to prove it. Once that 'Theory' becomes an accepted baseline belief, such as Evolution has, no amount of evidence that disproves that theory will be listened to or accepted.

Mcbear, you seem to conveniently forget, that it was just 20 years ago, these same scientists were screaming 'Global Cooling' and 'The Next Ice Age'.
Actually 20 years ago scientists were screaming abnormal climate change in some parts of the world and their information proved correct. They showed just WHY some areas were getting snow in June and extreme temperatures through scientific methods.

And as for your first paragraph, the key concept is SCIENTIFIC METHODS. If you don't understand them you might just believe that scientists just jump to conclusions and then pull evidence to support it. That is not how real science works. EVER. There is too much peer review, cross checks and competition between scientists that check each others work to insure that lazy work doesn't get through the gauntlet. But to understand that process you have to understand the fundamentals of the Scientific Method. They aren't simple and they aren't easy.

As for Evolution, you might want to check with geneticists and biologists and folks in those fields. They question the basic theories of evolution on a daily basis. There is not a person in the field that would not like to be the PhD that pushes the field up to the next level [or blows the current theory apart]. And that can only be accomplished through testing the theories daily.

Proponents of intelligent design, on the other hand have no such review and testing and are offended and takes defensive when critical questions are raised as to its merits or validity. Being faith based, it cannot sustain proofing.

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post #24 of 34 (permalink) Old 07-13-2008, 08:43 PM
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Dr. Spencer is not respected by you because you say he makes a political statement instead of a scientific one. What in the hell do you think your group of scientists have been doing since the start of this bullshit? I've seen crapumentarys made and text books published teaching our children an unproven theory as FACT, without the necessary data to firmly conclude that man is, indeed, the causative factor in this weather trend, that is clearly, at this moment, reversing itself as we speak. But you ignore it because you SAY Spencer did not provide the necessary scientific facts with his chart. Spencer is simply gleaning the data from NASA satellite information to make a mockery of this Global Warming non-sense and THAT is what I really think rubs you the wrong way. He is not a sloppy scientist, he is a lone scientist that isn't respected, anyway, because he dares to challenge the 1000's of IDIOTS who have drawn a conclusion and teach it as fact without conclusive scientific basis. These 1000's of scientists will only destroy REAL science because the more it is determined they are WRONG, their research dollars will dry up and their reputations will be dashed. They can't have that so, that is why it's important to them to have certain 'solutions' enacted NOW, so they can lay claim that it was these actions they put into place that are responsible for a cooling trend that has already begun.

Smoke and mirrors.
First, it's not MY group of scientists. Second, for over 40 years of collecting the research papers from scores of years of data and hundreds of years of historical sampling, these folks have built a pretty strong consensus. Do they have 100% conclusions of the causative factors, NO. First because there are MULTIPLE FACTORS, NOT ONE. They do have proof of many of the causative factors and we are responsible for many of them. Earth is responsible for some and the Sun is responsible for some.

In trying to make this a ONE CAUSE that can't have 100% PROOF, you shortsightedly avoid the real issues. And avoid the responsibility of having to assess the problems individually.

Folks like Spencer like to take a slice of data, turn it, take a bold brush and with that small slice of data insinuate that the whole GCC issue is bogus. THAT is what earns Spencer the disrespect he gets.

It would be as if you thought you had a perfect car and I came by, pointed out a small imperfection under the wheel well and discounted the entire car based on that finding. Never mind that the very vast majority of your car is absolutely gorgeous and perfect. I proved it a failure and a fraud with that one little flaw. That is what the debunkers are trying to do with the GCC issue.

I tend to look at the big picture. Look at the whole thing, assess the body of work and make my decisions based on that. Much like the car, I really don't care if the wrong color shock brace nuts are under the right front fender. I care about the overall assessment.

And I have to go with the thousands of folks who have been digging into this stuff for 40 years instead of the few guys who seem to all be paid by oil companies and special interest groups. I'm funny like that.

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post #25 of 34 (permalink) Old 07-13-2008, 08:53 PM
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^ I reluctantly, and with great hesitation, consider myself persuaded. It's been easier to see the other side's point of view when it wasn't being fired directly at me. From the sidelines, and after repeated efforts (necessary to penetrate the thicker portions of my head), it's been easier to see the truth of the GCC argument.

There's certainly fault to be laid at the feet of those championing the cause. They continue to do a terrible job of persuading people, favoring instead the militant/elitist/combative tact - even if it's a response in-kind to the non-believers, they're far too eager to hop down from the high road and get into unproductive fisticuffs with any and all comers.

For my part, I will attempt to convey what I understand the GCC case to be, in a more truthful and genuine manner.
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post #26 of 34 (permalink) Old 07-13-2008, 08:58 PM
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^ I reluctantly, and with great hesitation, consider myself persuaded. It's been easier to see the other side's point of view when it wasn't being fired directly at me. From the sidelines, and after repeated efforts (necessary to penetrate the thicker portions of my head), it's been easier to see the truth of the GCC argument.

There's certainly fault to be laid at the feet of those championing the cause. They continue to do a terrible job of persuading people, favoring instead the militant/elitist/combative tact - even if it's a response in-kind to the non-believers, they're far too eager to hop down from the high road and get into unproductive fisticuffs with any and all comers.

For my part, I will attempt to convey what I understand the GCC case to be, in a more truthful and genuine manner.
UPS is going to be disappointed. I was about ready to send you about 100 pounds of reports instead of moving them.

I really do think the main problem with all of this GCC discussion is when the politics got involved. I know it had to in order to make a massive headway but it really polarized too much stuff.

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post #27 of 34 (permalink) Old 07-13-2008, 09:00 PM Thread Starter
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At this time, I think it is premature to try to convince anybody of anything concerning GCC. The best thing people can do, IMO, is to hold fire on a decision and let the science pay-out another couple of years.

(I personally find the evidence compelling enough that I am willing to take PERSONAL steps to minimize my effect. I do not find it sufficiently compelling for the gov to short-circuit free enterprise. At this time.

B

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post #28 of 34 (permalink) Old 07-13-2008, 09:58 PM
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At this time, I think it is premature to try to convince anybody of anything concerning GCC. The best thing people can do, IMO, is to hold fire on a decision and let the science pay-out another couple of years.

(I personally find the evidence compelling enough that I am willing to take PERSONAL steps to minimize my effect. I do not find it sufficiently compelling for the gov to short-circuit free enterprise. At this time.)

B
(I'll assume you intended to close your parentheses.)

I'm in total agreement with your last paragraph. Ultimately, I think most rational minded individuals would be willing to concede that they agree similarly. It's very easy, and attractive, to start Googling away and coming up with material to support a position against GCC, but for me anyway, the reality is that I'm against the politics and the actions of what I'd consider a cabal of fanatics. We never see the rational, skeptical scientists who like to find things but who refuse to jump to conclusions. All we see are the people who jump to those conclusions, and do so with reckless abandon - some of them scientists.

If I've learned anything the past few months, I think I'm becoming better at learning how to separate what's important from what's not. I already know that there's no value in right-fighting over minutiae...what I am determined to get better at doing, is resisting the urge to treat EVERYTHING as if it's not minutiae. Not EVERY point is relevant...not EVERY bullet you come across is the silver one. If I can learn to kinda step back from that cliff, it won't be as important to perform interesting gyrations and make a clean entry into the water below after I've already leapt off.

I think that's about all the metaphors I can work into a post this late at night.
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post #29 of 34 (permalink) Old 07-13-2008, 09:59 PM
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UPS is going to be disappointed. I was about ready to send you about 100 pounds of reports instead of moving them.

I really do think the main problem with all of this GCC discussion is when the politics got involved. I know it had to in order to make a massive headway but it really polarized too much stuff.
You're still welcome to send them...lemme know if you want an address via PM.

Or, give them to CLKman's new FCDS (Florida Cracker Delivery Service)...he'll drive them down here COD, payable in the form of BBQ ribs.
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post #30 of 34 (permalink) Old 07-13-2008, 10:13 PM
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You're still welcome to send them...lemme know if you want an address via PM.

Or, give them to CLKman's new FCDS (Florida Cracker Delivery Service)...he'll drive them down here COD, payable in the form of BBQ ribs.
I will see what I need to do. Some of this might get scanned if I can't find it on the web. Some is 30 year old reports from Woods Hole, U. Edinburgh and Cal Poly stuff from when I was there. Apparently they were NOT worried about cutting down trees to make reports.

I agree with Bot and you that the government does not need to be jumping in with both feet. Never have. All I have ever felt they need to go is offer standards and base guidelines so we don't end up with this helter skelter system where nothing is ever compatible [right now my focused peeve is rechargable power tools - I have 5 different types of chargers active].

Corporate can be nudged in the right direction but it does require incentives for them to put out the initial investments [especially after the last decade of poor performance most have had in sales and wall street]. But if we are going to move forward, instead of setting on our hands and waiting on that WOW moment where we have 100% proof of yes/no on 500 variables then we are going to need SOME government assistance. A 60s level Moon Shot program. The side benefit is that IT would stimulate the economy it a way that doesn't spur deficit spending.

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