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post #41 of 105 (permalink) Old 06-24-2008, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted by QBNCGAR View Post
^ I'm perfectly willing to accept that this is the truth of the situation...that it's "fledgling science", to use your terms. I'm also perfectly willing to agree with FTL, that the "what's the worst that can happen" clause conveniently favors the GCC crowd.

Here's the thing though - living a cleaner, more efficient life, is something that makes sense on it's own. It's a self-sustaining argument. It doesn't need the brand of alarmism that continually gets spouted about, including the tripe that started this whole thread, where a "scientist" is calling for the opposition to be jailed for fuck's sake.

Bear, if the crowd of disbelievers is shrinking and losing IQ points in the process, why does James Hansen feel the need to go to the press with a proclamation of treason and a call for jail time for this insignificant group of fools?
It's the harem scarum tipping points, dude. An example is provided by FTL in Post #23. To my knowledge, that particular little jewel has already been falsified (at least in regard to our last ice age), but some apparently find this evidence unconvincing, and there is no shortage of other tipping point scenarios that have been hypothesized. If you buy into one or more of these, the extremism may seem entirely rational.

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post #42 of 105 (permalink) Old 06-24-2008, 01:58 PM
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I'll say again - the message from the global warming camp has not made it to the mainstream in a credible way. I respectfully point to the lack of any real change, as I alluded to earlier, as evidence of this fact. You may have lots of "believers" on the Gore bandwagon, but none of them (including Gore) are doing much to change things. Proof of THAT fact is everywhere, and I think, beyond refute.
Wrong across the board.

First, the message has been made. Just go to your local Home Depot or friendly Dodge dealer or read the Congressional Record or Earth Day Events to see just how thorough the message has been made to the mainstream American in a very credible way. It is only a very few people who are still questioning the validity of the overwhelming science that is behind the message.

Look at the Auto industry if you want to see change. Or the building industry [try building to 1996 code in most jurisdictions]. Or look at the greenspace considerations in nearly every city's municipal plan. Or maybe just look at folks at that Home Depot as they look to insulation improvements or adding shade trees or changing bulbs or moving to gray water irrigation for house plants as they do their version of "little things".

Or look at the proliferation of websites for the DIY [and the associated shops and plans and products that advertise on them].

Seems to me like "none of them are doing much to change things" is a bit of a misplaced observation. Everywhere I look, people are changing things. Are you sure you are actually looking?

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post #43 of 105 (permalink) Old 06-24-2008, 02:05 PM
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This is what I'm talking about. They've referred to using spare computing cycles to run through a predictive model as "an experiment". It's no such fucking thing.

An experiment is a scientific procedure undertaken to make a discovery, test a hypothesis, or demonstrate a known fact. Predictive future modeling is none of the above.

Alternately, you could say an experiment is a course of action tentatively adopted without being sure of the eventual outcome.

...
Um, you might want to better understand Scientific Method before saying that Predictive Modeling is not testing a hypothesis. As long as Scientific Methods are used, Predictive Modeling is a very valid tool in science as an experiment. And using spare MIPS is a very good way to do it while saving resources at the same time.

You really might want to open your mind up a bit on this. By beginning to discount EVERYTHING you are beginning to sound like a conspiracy theorist. It might just be the lack of gall.

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post #44 of 105 (permalink) Old 06-24-2008, 02:09 PM
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Well, as a matter a fact, he is in charge. He's the head of NASA's Goddard Institute, one of the most prestigous scientific posts in world history and since when is lies "dissent"? The whole anti-warming movement is a fucking scandal that is going to get the entire human race killed. As more and more CO2 is released we are coming closer and closer to the massive release of methane gas trapped in perma-frost that we know precedes every major warming of the earth. The results will be catastrophic, and it is time to quit fucking around with the stupid political football the right wingers in this country have made of what is science, not politics.

At the top of all of this is a simple probability, and it amazes me that an educated man such as yourself cannot see it: in a 50-50 probability analysis a two-year old could do, if you are wrong, we all die, if I am wrong, we do not. Based on that simple statement alone it is time for the right wingers in this country to cut the fucking crap and stop betting our children's very lives on this insane coin toss you want us all to do with this, against a massively supported statement of the majority of the scientific community that our activities are going to tip this planet back into the Carboniferous Age.

http://www.thepacificanonline.com/content/view/392/2/

http://icp.giss.nasa.gov/education/m...tro/cycle.html
From Greenhouse to Green House

You have your science, they have theirs.

Fu and Johanson
Fu and his colleagues, in their new round of work, measured
stratospheric cooling directly, then subtracted the data from the
tropospheric record to arrive at their conclusions.

The work finds a tropospheric warming of about two-tenths of a degree
Celsius per decade. This is very close to the warming projected by
climate models. The UAH team also found a tropospheric warming trend,
but it was only 0.08 degrees C.

One criticism of Fu's work is it is a statistical result, rather than a
physical one.


"The bottom line is that their technique results in certain errors that
they think cancel out," UAH's Roy Spencer told Climate, "but we don't
think there is enough information on stratospheric trends to know
whether those errors cancel out."


Spencer and Christy criticized Fu's initial work because they said they
had used his technique and it did not work. The criticism was published
primarily on the Internet, not in peer-reviewed journals, but it did
inspire Fu to reconsider his research and conduct this current effort.


"I didn't know Spencer before this," Fu said, "but now I've met him at
some scientific conferences, and we can talk about the science. At the
time, he was so sure we were damn wrong ... Now he says we don't know
enough."

Kevin Trenberth, head of the climate analysis section of the National
Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, told Climate: "Some people
won't like their data because (they are) statistical rather than
physical. I'm sure it won't be the last word. They qualify a bit better
how well they remove the stratospheric influence. The remaining residual
error is one-hundredth of a degree Kelvin per decade. The lower
troposphere record of of Spencer and Christy has more problems and has
contamination from the stratosphere."

Christy countered, however, that his team's work corresponds more
closely with physical measurements taken from weather balloons and other
physical measurements of the troposphere taken around the world.

"The Fu work tries to infer tropospheric temperatures based on the
differences of stratospheric temperatures. Those are the temperatures we
have the least confidence in,"
Christy told Climate.
So no, Ron, they haven't in fact reconciled the differences between surface temperature observations and tropospheric measurements in ways that scientists are comfortable with....which explains why the article FTL referenced never made it out of the blogosphere.

Working on the others, stand by...
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post #45 of 105 (permalink) Old 06-24-2008, 02:11 PM
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Bear, if the crowd of disbelievers is shrinking and losing IQ points in the process, why does James Hansen feel the need to go to the press with a proclamation of treason and a call for jail time for this insignificant group of fools?
I would assume that he believes that the issue is important enough to feel the need to work on it at ALL levels as he continues to inform the people of the issues.

Again, he is not stifling scientific dissent, simply the folks that outright lie and obfuscate on behalf of their clients and on behalf of their special interest groups.

At no point has he suggested that scientists who have legitimate research that runs contrary to the majority not be submitted for peer review and publication.

He simply is going after the swiftboaters. That seems fair.

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post #46 of 105 (permalink) Old 06-24-2008, 02:13 PM
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Sorry I was unclear, Q. I was actually referring to this little doomsday tipping point scenario:

Quote:
Originally Posted by FTL
The whole anti-warming movement is a fucking scandal that is going to get the entire human race killed. As more and more CO2 is released we are coming closer and closer to the massive release of methane gas trapped in perma-frost that we know precedes every major warming of the earth.

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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post #47 of 105 (permalink) Old 06-24-2008, 02:19 PM
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Soo...

http://icp.giss.nasa.gov/education/m...tro/cycle.html

This basically says that all the rice and animals we tend to for survival is ultimately killing the planet. Either we eat far less rice and don't raise animals for food, or we start selecting people to kill and sterilize in order to control the population. Where would you like to start?
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post #48 of 105 (permalink) Old 06-24-2008, 02:22 PM
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Kansas?

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post #49 of 105 (permalink) Old 06-24-2008, 02:26 PM
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Wrong across the board.

First, the message has been made. Just go to your local Home Depot or friendly Dodge dealer or read the Congressional Record or Earth Day Events to see just how thorough the message has been made to the mainstream American in a very credible way. It is only a very few people who are still questioning the validity of the overwhelming science that is behind the message.

Look at the Auto industry if you want to see change. Or the building industry [try building to 1996 code in most jurisdictions]. Or look at the greenspace considerations in nearly every city's municipal plan. Or maybe just look at folks at that Home Depot as they look to insulation improvements or adding shade trees or changing bulbs or moving to gray water irrigation for house plants as they do their version of "little things".

Or look at the proliferation of websites for the DIY [and the associated shops and plans and products that advertise on them].

Seems to me like "none of them are doing much to change things" is a bit of a misplaced observation. Everywhere I look, people are changing things. Are you sure you are actually looking?
That's the best we have? The auto industry could give two squirts about global warming or Gore; they haven't even cut production of SUV's yet (have planned to)...it's only the price of gas that makes them tough to sell, not the damage they cause to the planet.

Tools like Autodesk Revit have made it possible for architects to quickly and easily account for environmental factors in their designs. They'd have preferred to all along, but building the stuff is tough and expensive. As time has moved on, costs and complexity have come down. You can't credit Gore for this development, it's been happening for a long time. The construction industry moves very, very slowly.

DIY sites exploded with HGTV, etc., which exploded with the economy and housing prices. Surely we're not crediting Al Gore with the housing bubble, since it took over 10 years for it to grow then deflate...

It's rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Is Al Gore's global trekking really designed to get us to re-use rainwater for our plants, or is it designed to facilitate big changes in big industries? I'd hope it's the latter, otherwise he's expended a lot more energy and goodwill than he could ever hope to salvage.

I made a list of the no-brainer things industry could do to make huge steps forward quickly. None of them have been done. They're not novel ideas. They're not brand spanking new. There's been no traction in any meaningful, measurable way, in how industry works or how people live their lives, attributable to the machinations of one Al Gore. Look no further than his own home for proof.
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post #50 of 105 (permalink) Old 06-24-2008, 02:27 PM
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Kansas?
Now THAT'S efficiency. Two birds with one stone. I like the way you think.
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