Obama, you got my vote - Page 6 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #51 of 71 (permalink) Old 06-06-2008, 04:42 AM
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Originally Posted by FeelTheLove View Post
... and The Swift Boat Machine is in disarray after spending half of this year going after their own nominee.
It's not over yet. Wednesday, a caller told Hannity he was a Democrat Hillary supporter who had worked in her campaign and donated money to her who was now moving to support McCain because he felt Obama was simply the wrong choice. He wanted Hannity to 'bless' this transition somehow

Hannity's response was that though he liked and respected John McCain, he could not support him because he (Hannity) was unsure of McCain's commitment to conservative values. He's waiting to see who McCain picks as a running mate.

For me, that's more damaging than his drumbeat of Rezko, Wright, Flager and Ayers. I don't understand what these people want or how they are going about getting it.

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post #52 of 71 (permalink) Old 06-06-2008, 04:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Digmenow View Post
It's not over yet. Wednesday, a caller told Hannity he was a Democrat Hillary supporter who had worked in her campaign and donated money to her who was now moving to support McCain because he felt Obama was simply the wrong choice. He wanted Hannity to 'bless' this transition somehow

Hannity's response was that though he liked and respected John McCain, he could not support him because he (Hannity) was unsure of McCain's commitment to conservative values. He's waiting to see who McCain picks as a running mate.

For me, that's more damaging than his drumbeat of Rezko, Wright, Flager and Ayers. I don't understand what these people want or how they are going about getting it.
Its a pretty shitty situation. For the first time ever, I dont have a candidate to support. I think there are many Americans in the same boat. I'm just gonna pick the man going against the man I'd rather not see in office.
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post #53 of 71 (permalink) Old 06-06-2008, 04:57 AM
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Originally Posted by GermanStar View Post
Guess -- what percentage of Hillary voters will back McCain?
25% is the number that jumped in my head as well. There are other problems in the Obama camp though. How about all the people that voted for him BEFORE the Reverend Wright shit?. What percentage wish they could take the vote back?.
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post #54 of 71 (permalink) Old 06-06-2008, 09:00 AM
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I am trying to figure out how one is going to be able to tell if that actually happens. Pre-election polls are pretty worthless as they don't have the cold hard "in the booth" effect. Exit polls are notoriously unreliable on things like that and actual vote will not provide a "cross over" indicator.

So how would you propose determining the calculation and determining the threshold.

If it becomes simply will Obama beat McCain, I'm good for that bet. Steak at the same restaurant.
You take all the fun our of it... I suspect at least a dozen professional polling agencies will be looking at exactly that crossover issue, and as we get closer to November 1 everyone will have a good feel for what happened and possibly even why. I'd be willing to wait until after the election and see who wins and then decide how much credence to put in the pre- post- and exit-polls. And I am confident enough to bet two steaks at the Jayhawker! Bring the wifie!

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post #55 of 71 (permalink) Old 06-06-2008, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Botnst View Post
MSNBC

All three major candidates had most success in projecting their message about character on MSNBC. Obama and Clinton received roughly equally positive narratives (70% for Obama and 72% for Clinton). The tilt was not as heavily for McCain (53%) but that was still better coverage than he received on either of the other two cable channels.

The Clinton campaign had MSNBC to thank for a greater portion of statements disputing the concept that she is unlikable, 22% on MSNBC versus 13% on CNN and 12% on Fox News.

For McCain, two factors contributed to his more positive image. First, MSNBC gave more attention than the other cable channels to his appeal to independents and moderates (22% versus 13% on CNN and 11% on Fox News.) In addition, MSNBC focused less on criticisms of him as not reliably conservative. Just 39% of MSNBC’s assertions about McCain were on this topic compared to 49% on Fox News and 46% on CNN.

The biggest factor for Obama’s positive coverage on MSNBC was less coverage of the assertion that he is too inexperienced to be president. Only 7% of the Obama themes on MSNBC made this claim compared with 17% on Fox News and 19% on CNN.

In our study of the first three months of the campaign in 2007 and again in the primary season of 2008, we found that MSNBC has been consistently more positive to all of the candidates than any other cable channel.

Fox News

Fox News was the harshest of the three channels on the presumptive Republican nominee. More than half (55%) of the prominent personal statements about McCain were negative, the vast majority of which (49% overall) questioned his conservatism.

In its criticism, Fox News devoted more overall attention to McCain compared with the other cable channels, nearly the same attention it gave the two leading Democrats, 36% for McCain, 37% for Clinton and 39% for Obama. Both CNN and MSNBC, on the other hand, devoted far less of their coverage to the McCain campaign than they did to Clinton’s or Obama’s.

Fox News was also more positive in its portrayal of Obama’s major personal narrative than either McCain or Clinton. Fully 69% of the assertions about Obama personally were positive, a number that rivals what he received on MSNBC (70%).

Fox News did offer more positive than negative assertions about Clinton, but less so than the other channels (54% positive versus 70% on CNN and 72% on MSNBC). In particular, Fox News gave more attention to the image of Clinton as unlikable and divisive than either of the other networks, (22% versus 13% on CNN and only 4% on MSNBC).

CNN

If MSNBC was the most positive channel for each candidate, and Fox News was the harshest on Clinton and McCain, then CNN fell somewhere in between.

Coverage of Clinton’s personal narrative was nearly as positive as on MSNBC, an overwhelming 70% of all assertions studied. McCain’s personal message was almost evenly balanced (49% positive and 51% negative), versus a negative tilt on Fox (55% negative) and a positive one on MSNBC (53% positive)

Obama, on the other hand, found CNN to be much tougher on his campaign than either of the other channels. In particular, CNN spent less time reaffirming the notion that Obama representing hope and change (19% of Obama themes versus 28% on Fox and 26% on MSNBC). The network also spent more time questioning his integrity and honesty (11% versus 6% at both MSNBC and Fox.)

http://journalism.org/node/11275
Interesting... Here's a related story:

Democrats Enjoy More Positive Media Coverage than McCain - US News and World Report

And here is a related table from yet another study--can't remember the source...


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post #56 of 71 (permalink) Old 06-06-2008, 09:57 AM
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^ Can't remember the source...how rich.
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post #57 of 71 (permalink) Old 06-06-2008, 11:24 AM
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I saw this chart this morning and I think it exemplifies Obambi's "white problem."
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post #58 of 71 (permalink) Old 06-06-2008, 11:27 AM
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Doesn't make much sense Jay. Look at the thing and figure out how the demographics add up to an overall Obama edge as indicated.

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post #59 of 71 (permalink) Old 06-06-2008, 11:31 AM
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What We've Learned About Barack



June 6, 2008

Barack Obama has finally secured the Democratic Party's nomination. The question now for voters, and for Republican John McCain, is what have we learned over the past 16 months?

We've learned Mr. Obama is a gifted politician, with a knack for reading the public mood. His success came from tapping in, early, to the country's deep dissatisfaction with the political status quo, and orienting his campaign around a "change" message. Other presidential aspirants – Republican and Democrat – ultimately adopted a version of this tune. But they couldn't match what was by then a well-rehearsed Obama number...

Potomac Watch - WSJ.com

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post #60 of 71 (permalink) Old 06-06-2008, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by GermanStar View Post
Doesn't make much sense Jay. Look at the thing and figure out how the demographics add up to an overall Obama edge as indicated.
I think it's a sampling thing, but his "edge" is still w/in the margin of error. As I said, the polls will be imprecise at best for a couple moths at least. This will be a very interesting election and I'm having a hard time figuring out how it will turn out--but one thing is sure: It will be fun to watch nonetheless.

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