NO RECESSION? Economy's growth picks up in first quarter... - Page 2 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #11 of 43 (permalink) Old 05-29-2008, 02:32 PM
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post #12 of 43 (permalink) Old 05-29-2008, 05:43 PM
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Economy grows at a 0.9 percent pace, better than first thought but still weak

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy plodded ahead at a 0.9 percent pace in the first quarter -- slightly better than first estimated -- but still underscoring caution on the part of consumers and businesses walloped by housing, credit and financial problems.

The new reading on gross domestic product, released by the Commerce Department on Thursday, was an improvement from the government's initial growth estimate for the January-to-March quarter as well as the economy's performance in the final quarter of last year. Both periods were pegged at a 0.6 percent growth rate.

Economy's growth picks up slightly in first quarter: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
Hush, don't you know the paradigm is recession? What is wrong with you?

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post #13 of 43 (permalink) Old 05-29-2008, 08:27 PM Thread Starter
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Hush, don't you know the paradigm is recession? What is wrong with you?
Damn! I keep forgetting... What's wrong w/ me?

Don't believe everything you think
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post #14 of 43 (permalink) Old 05-29-2008, 08:46 PM
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Damn! I keep forgetting... What's wrong w/ me?
Aw Jeez, do we have to make that list again?

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post #15 of 43 (permalink) Old 05-29-2008, 11:02 PM
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US banks likely to fail as bad loans soar

US banks set aside a record $37.1bn to cover losses on real estate loans and other credits during the first quarter in a sign of the growing economic pain being caused by the global credit crisis, regulators said on Thursday.

Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, said it was likely loan-loss provisions and bank failures would rise in coming quarters as the fallout from market turmoil hits the real economy.

“While we may be past the worst of the turmoil in financial markets, we’re still in the early stages of the traditional credit crisis you typically see during an economic downturn,” she said, adding: “What we really need to focus on is the uncertainty surrounding the economy . . . and again it is all about housing.”

Ms Bair spoke as the FDIC released its quarterly banking profile, which showed loan-loss provisions in the first quarter were more than four times higher than last year’s level. That was the main reason bank earnings fell 46 per cent to $19.3bn from the first quarter in 2007 for the commercial banks and savings institutions where the FDIC insures customer deposits.

Following restatements by banks, the FDIC revised the industry’s net income for the fourth quarter of last year from $5.8bn to $646m – the lowest since the end of 1990.

Meanwhile, the FDIC said the number of “problem” banks rose in the first quarter from 76 to 90, with combined assets of $26.3bn. Three US banks have failed this year, compared with three for the whole of last year and none in 2005 and 2006.

Ms Bair said she expected more bank failures but emphasised that the number of problem institutions remained well below the record levels of the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s – when one in 10 banks were in that category.

However, she said one worrying trend was the declining “coverage ratio”, which compares bank reserves with the level of loans that are 90 days past due. This ratio fell for the eighth consecutive quarter, to 89 cents in reserves for every $1 of noncurrent loans, the lowest level since the first quarter of 1993.

“This is the kind of thing that gives regulators heartburn,” said Ms Bair. “We also want them to beef up their capital cushions beyond regulatory minimums given uncertainty about the housing markets and the economy . . . It’s only prudent to be building up capital at a time like this.”

In a sign that some US banks may have underestimated the cost of the housing slump, KeyCorp this week doubled its forecast for loan losses – its second revision in as many months – sending its share price tumbling by more than 10 per cent. During the property boom, KeyCorp expanded in fast-growing regions such as southern California and Florida, where problem loans are now growing.

FT.com / In depth - US banks likely to fail as bad loans soar
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post #16 of 43 (permalink) Old 05-29-2008, 11:11 PM
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^^^^ Yeah yeah
I am still waiting for the EU to stop extorting from US companies.
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post #17 of 43 (permalink) Old 06-29-2008, 01:51 PM Thread Starter
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A Not-So-Widespread Downturn

So far, the weakness has been largely confined to the housing and automotive sectors—suggesting the economy may be more resilient than it appears.

by James Cooper

When the business-cycle experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research define a recession, they say the depth of the decline in economic activity must be "significant" and that it must last "more than a few months." They also say the downturn must be "spread across the economy," and that may turn out to be the most crucial factor in whether or not the current period of weakness ends up being called a recession.

So far, the slump has been unusually narrow, confined mainly to housing and autos. That may explain why broad indicators, such as employment and household income, have not posted typical recession-size declines, and why overall growth has been so resilient in the face of stiff headwinds.

The economy may have more hidden strength than the puny top-line numbers for gross domestic product growth imply. The latest report says the economy grew at annual rates of 0.6% and 0.9%, in the fourth and first quarters, respectively. Help from tax rebates, foreign demand, and lean inventories raise the chances for another small plus in GDP this quarter...

A Not-So-Widespread Downturn

Don't believe everything you think
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post #18 of 43 (permalink) Old 06-29-2008, 02:06 PM
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So far, the weakness has been largely confined to the housing and automotive sectors—suggesting the economy may be more resilient than it appears.

by James Cooper

When the business-cycle experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research define a recession, they say the depth of the decline in economic activity must be "significant" and that it must last "more than a few months." They also say the downturn must be "spread across the economy," and that may turn out to be the most crucial factor in whether or not the current period of weakness ends up being called a recession.

So far, the slump has been unusually narrow, confined mainly to housing and autos. That may explain why broad indicators, such as employment and household income, have not posted typical recession-size declines, and why overall growth has been so resilient in the face of stiff headwinds.

The economy may have more hidden strength than the puny top-line numbers for gross domestic product growth imply. The latest report says the economy grew at annual rates of 0.6% and 0.9%, in the fourth and first quarters, respectively. Help from tax rebates, foreign demand, and lean inventories raise the chances for another small plus in GDP this quarter...

A Not-So-Widespread Downturn
Of course you could have also posted the conclusion paragraph of the article...
Quote:
Originally Posted by ftfa
The current soft patch may yet qualify as a recession. Annual revisions to GDP data, due in July, could give growth a different look. For now, though, it appears the weakness has not spread widely enough to generate a sufficiently significant and lasting decline in economic activity.
That was, however an interesting article. When you first read it you think you will be reading a review of a report from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Turns out the author is just using that group in the first line of his story as a leader. There is no NBER report that correlates to the story.

It would have been more interesting if he had referenced specific numbers for other sectors instead of just Housing and Autos. Financials and Manufacturing would have been good. As would the genesis of the growth numbers due to exports due to a staggeringly weak dollar.

When he started with the Auto and Housing numbers, I thought the article was going to have potential. It dropped off quickly.

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post #19 of 43 (permalink) Old 06-29-2008, 02:09 PM Thread Starter
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Of course you could have also posted the conclusion paragraph of the article...

.....
When he started with the Auto and Housing numbers, I thought the article was going to have potential. It dropped off quickly.
Only in the mind of a bear...

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post #20 of 43 (permalink) Old 07-03-2008, 09:10 AM Thread Starter
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Unemployment rate remains steady...Paulson says economy set to strengthen...

Employers cut jobs for 6th straight month: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

Paulson says US economy set to strengthen

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