US new home sales rose unexpectedly in April - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 32 (permalink) Old 05-27-2008, 09:43 PM Thread Starter
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US new home sales rose unexpectedly in April





Sales of new homes across the United States rose an unexpected 3.3 percent in April from the prior month, to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 526,000 homes, a government report showed Tuesday. The spike in sales confounded most economists forecasts of a sales decline last month.

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post #2 of 32 (permalink) Old 05-27-2008, 09:51 PM
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"But home sales were down 42% from a year earlier. April's reading was the second-lowest annual rate since October 1991, behind March of this year. A preliminary report had March's new home sales level at 526,000 - the same as April's - but March's number was revised down to 509,000 in Tuesday's report.

"The momentum is still downward, and that April number is still weak," said National Association of Home Builders chief economist David Seiders. "April marks only a partial reversal of that steep March decline."

"A report on Friday showed that sales of existing homes, which represent a much larger share of the overall housing market than newly-built properties, fell one percent during April from March to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million properties."

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post #3 of 32 (permalink) Old 05-27-2008, 10:03 PM
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The 3.3% increase came about due to the revision of March numbers as they were pushed DOWN. So the month to month increase occurred [April was better than revised March]. We will have to wait to see what revised April is in June.

But the biggest number in the report was that " they were down 42 percent from a year ago, which was the largest year-over-year drop in nearly 27 years" which was 11% below 2006 which was 5.7% below 2005.

Note that April is always one of the three best months in Real Estate sales according to the Census Bureau who are the folks who track this thing.

In 2006 April was 11.5% better than March. In 2007 it was 16% above March. This year 3.3% [without April revisions].

So I am not sure why economists were confounded. The numbers and patterns are all there to see.

C25 New Single-Family Home Sales - Previous Releases

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post #4 of 32 (permalink) Old 05-27-2008, 10:11 PM Thread Starter
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Home Prices Fall, But Why You Might Not Have Lost Value

Realty Check: Home Prices Fall, But Why You Might Not Have Lost Value - Realty Check with Diana Olick - MSNBC.com

"...We constantly talk about how much these price indexes are dropping, but we often forget how far they rose during the housing boom. If you purchased your home before the boom, and you’re still living in it, then the price drops, so far at least, haven’t negated your total appreciation."

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post #5 of 32 (permalink) Old 05-27-2008, 10:24 PM
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We now have 4 ubermansions in the 'hood that are in various stages of completion and seemed to be just sitting. How do you run out of funds half way through?

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post #6 of 32 (permalink) Old 05-27-2008, 10:26 PM
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yes we don't care about all the foreclosed or abandoned properties? they don't matter?



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post #7 of 32 (permalink) Old 05-27-2008, 10:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jayhawk View Post
Realty Check: Home Prices Fall, But Why You Might Not Have Lost Value - Realty Check with Diana Olick - MSNBC.com

"...We constantly talk about how much these price indexes are dropping, but we often forget how far they rose during the housing boom. If you purchased your home before the boom, and you’re still living in it, then the price drops, so far at least, haven’t negated your total appreciation."
That is true for those of us who have lived in our houses for 18ish years and did not leverage the crap out of them with second mortgages and rewrites to ATM the "investment" but so many folks are not in that category.

If you JUST look at the annualized 1 Million New Single Family Homes [the subject of this report] then the last 4 years provides 4 Million homes that do not fit in that "IF you purchased before the ..." window. Add to that the EXISTING HOMES Report [5 Million annually - down 17.5% from last year], Refinance, Second mortgage and suddenly the 100 Million total homes starts to have a large percentage that is financially impacted. [25 million churn in a 5 year period]


There are nearly 18.6 Million vacant homes in the US as of April.

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post #8 of 32 (permalink) Old 05-27-2008, 10:30 PM
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We now have 4 ubermansions in the 'hood that are in various stages of completion and seemed to be just sitting. How do you run out of funds half way through?
If the consumer already owned it, the bank might just have cut them off. If it was a spec house or a developer, the developer might [or most likely] tanked or is in process of tanking.

That is starting to happen here with the $1M+ houses on the lake. I have seen several down the road that are just setting with no activity for months.

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post #9 of 32 (permalink) Old 05-27-2008, 10:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
If the consumer already owned it, the bank might just have cut them off. If it was a spec house or a developer, the developer might [or most likely] tanked or is in process of tanking.

That is starting to happen here with the $1M+ houses on the lake. I have seen several down the road that are just setting with no activity for months.
Exactly. They were tear downs that the people lived in for about a year then began demolishing and building. Two of them are acquaintances that are developers and were counting on sales from other projects. Now they'll probably have to move into the projects.

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post #10 of 32 (permalink) Old 05-27-2008, 11:10 PM
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Exactly. They were tear downs that the people lived in for about a year then began demolishing and building. Two of them are acquaintances that are developers and were counting on sales from other projects. Now they'll probably have to move into the projects.
Ouch.

I just don't get the new 5000+ sqft concept in some of these houses.

I saw the HGTV Homebuilders show earlier this week and the developer of one of the houses was discussing kitchens in the house. Paraphrasing...

"Besides the 1000 square foot main kitchen there is the Outdoor Kitchen, the separate guest quarters kitchen, staff half kitchen and a small convenience area in the Master Suite with microwave, fridge, wine cooler and sink."

I want to know who SubZero sent to blow this guy when he was designing that particular house.

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