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post #1 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-14-2008, 10:32 AM Thread Starter
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Republican Apocalypse coming? Third conservative district lost

My my, with all the Jayhawk crowd here constantly reminding us of the "unpopular Congress", it turns out the most unpopular Congressmen are all Republicans. Are people final sick of this collection of religious kooks, earmark spend-freaks, rich-guy tax cut bag men, environmental rapists and men's room fornicators? Well, looks like even their own voters are. And they threw everything at the guy: they tried to tag him with "Nancy Pelosi is a queer-loving San Francisco liberal", "Obama's pastor is a crazy nigger", "Obama is a Socialist Muslim", and it all failed:


GOP Stunned By Loss in Mississippi
By Reid Wilson



(AP) In a major blow to national Republicans, a Mississippi congressional seat that once voted for President Bush by a twenty-five point margin elected a Democrat on Tuesday. Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers beat out Republican candidate Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven, by a 54%-46% margin, a spread that several Republican strategists on Capitol Hill characterized as a startling wake-up call for a party in dire straits.

Voters cast ballots for the fourth time in three months for the seat, vacated when Republican Roger Wicker was appointed to fill the remainder of Senator Trent Lott's term. After winning the primary and the runoff election, Childers came within 410 votes of winning the first round of the special election against Davis on April 22, beating the Republican by a 49%-46% margin.


Last night, Childers, a conservative Democrat, again outperformed Davis in many rural counties. Childers did better than in April in eighteen out of twenty four counties, while he underperformed in just two counties. Childers held steady in three of the remaining counties, while Winston County produced just ten votes. Most importantly, Childers held firm in Lee County, the district's largest and home to Tupelo, winning 58% of the vote, while improving his showing in DeSoto County, Davis's home field. Childers won 25% of the vote in DeSoto County, better than his anemic 17% showing in April.

The results came despite national Republican efforts aimed at winning the seat. Senators Thad Cochran and Roger Wicker, former Senator Trent Lott and Governor Haley Barbour campaigned hard for Davis. On Monday, perhaps as an unfortunate measure of how Republican the district really is, Vice President Dick Cheney held a rally for Davis. Closing the gap in DeSoto County, said Childers pollster John Anzalone, was crucial. "All we were looking to do was to cut the margins there," he said.

The loss has already shaken establishment Republicans in Washington. After losing special elections in Illinois and Louisiana, the House GOP conference already expects a bad year for their party. But those two districts voted for President Bush by eleven and nineteen points, respectively, not by a whopping twenety five points. "People are going to want change," said a top aide to a leading House Republican. "The excuses, that [Davis] didn't have the resources or that he wasn't from the right part of the district, that's just not going to hold up."

In the earlier special elections, Republicans blamed their candidate -- businessman Jim Oberweis in Illinois and former state legislator Woody Jenkins in Louisiana -- for the party's loss. As polls showed Davis losing to Childers, national Republicans began to signal they would blame Davis for being from the wrong part of the district.

But instead of blaming Davis, National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Tom Cole issued a surprisingly blunt statement about his party's own chances, coming a week after a national poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by a wide 50%-32% margin on generic congessional ballot tests. "Tonight's election highlights two significant challenges Republicans must overcome this November," Cole said. "First, Republicans must be prepared to campaign against Democrat challengers who are running as conservatives, even as they try to join a liberal Democrat majority. Though the Democrats' task will be more difficult in a November election, the fact is they have pulled off two special election victories with this strategy, and it should be a concern to all Republicans."

"The political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general," Cole continued. "I encourage all Republican candidates, whether incumbents or challengers, to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall by building the financial resources and grassroots networks that offer them the opportunity and ability to communicate, energize and turn out voters this election."

Still, losing heavily Republican seats in the Deep South is a big blow to the Washington GOP. "To lose two Southern seats in two weeks, I mean, oh my God," the leadership aide said. The aide told Real Clear Politics that something new is going to happen at the NRCC. "People look at Cole, and they say, 'What are you going to do to change?' And if he doesn't want to change, change is going to be forced on him."

A top adviser to a Republican incumbent who has a difficult race in November already says his boss is not looking to the NRCC for the same help he got in 2006. "This chairman badly underestimated how important it is to have top-flight staff," the adviser said, adding that some NRCC staffers are "toiling" under supervisors with less campaign experience. "We had been planning all along to operate without much help from them."

The leadership aide suggested that a former NRCc chairman, Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, could take on a larger role in the coming months. Davis, who is retiring after this session of Congress, ran the committee earlier this decade and currently serves as chairman of the NRCC executive committee. The adviser suggested, instead, that the wounded NRCC presents an opportunity for other members of the caucus to help out their fellow Republicans with political action committee donations, setting up future advancement for themselves.

While Republicans faced a renewed crisis of confidence Tuesday, Democrats celebrated what they said was another failed GOP angle of attack. "These are districts we have no business playing in," said Anzalone, who polled for Democratic winners in both Louisiana and Mississippi. "In ten days, you have two candidates who were attacked at high levels with [Barack] Obama and [the Rev. Jeremiah] Wright, and Nancy Pelosi and all that, and in neither place it worked." National Republicans ran advertisements slamming Childers for associating with Obama, forcing the conservative Democrat to respond with an advertisement asserting he had never met the likely Democratic presidential nominee.

Both parties spent heavily on the district. The NRCC spent at least $1.29 million on the seat, according to Federal Election Commission reports released yesterday, while the DCCC expended $1.84 million in the same race. Democrats point out that, as reported on Politics Nation earlier this week, Freedom's Watch, a group that backs Republican candidates, spent another approximately $500,000 on the seat. Adding insult to injury, Davis, the losing Republican, outspent Childers by a little less than a two-to-one margin. Through April 23, Davis had raised $876,000 and spent $803,000; Childers had raised just $485,000 and spent $419,000.

With more than $44.3 million in the bank after the end of March, Democrats can afford that kind of expenditure in a special election. But with only $7.2 million on hand, the NRCC will not be able to sustain that kind of spending in the future. After spending millions in the three losing special elections, the NRCC is likely to face seriously disappointing fundraising reports for the next several months.

As Childers heads to Washington in the next several days to take the oath of office, Republicans now find themselves at a 37-seat disadvantage in Congress. And with a difficult election coming in November, one in which they will likely find themselves financially and politically outgunned, national Republicans are already making plans for the future. No one, though, is likely to try to force leadership changes before November. "I don't imagine anyone running against Chairman Cole," the adviser to the endangered Republican said. "Because Who would want this job?"

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address

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post #2 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-14-2008, 11:17 AM
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You seem to think that republican lawmakers are the only morally corrupt politicians on shit head hill. Both parties deserve to be kicked out on their asses and we need to elect some libertarians and independents take their worthless places. Go ahead and put your cock sucking democrats on a pedestal. I say they all can go fuck themselves.

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post #3 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-14-2008, 11:29 AM
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^ Now there's a dose of truth. Gonna take a revolution of some sort to make it happen, tho... The GOP and Dems won't release their collective death-grip on the system without spilling some blood...

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post #4 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-14-2008, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by GermanStar View Post
^ Now there's a dose of truth. Gonna take a revolution of some sort to make it happen, tho... The GOP and Dems won't release their collective death-grip on the system without spilling some blood...
I can't wait to see the 2 party system get cracked right down the middle. But, the fissures are already showing in the presidential race.

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post #5 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-14-2008, 11:44 AM
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^Ah, an optimist. You're just seeing a controlled reaction within a confined space. The current race is just a reaction to our current president, just as the election of Bush was a reaction the Clinton blow job, whose election was a reaction to "read my lips" and so on.... None of this is beyond the confines of the GOP-Dem illusory box.

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post #6 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-14-2008, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by GermanStar View Post
^Ah, an optimist. You're just seeing a controlled reaction within a confined space. The current race is just a reaction to our current president, just as the election of Bush was a reaction the Clinton blow job, whose election was a reaction to "read my lips" and so on.... None of this is beyond the confines of the GOP-Dem illusory box.
What you're saying is that we need to remove the water from around the control rods and the containment building, then we can watch the melt down.

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post #7 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-14-2008, 12:25 PM
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Gotta get beyond the confines of that box somehow. Gotta plan?

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post #8 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-14-2008, 12:40 PM Thread Starter
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Has it ever occurred to either one of you that the reason these people are in office is because of the voters? Who the fuck else would they vote for? Paul? The guy totally whacked out and sold out to "the system" by running as a Republican. Nader? Give me a break. Barr? The guy is a Borat joke. Your real problem is as much the lack of a real third party leader as it is the system. Given the realities the Democrats are the only choice at this time. Make another one viable, and who knows what would happen.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address

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post #9 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-14-2008, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by FeelTheLove View Post
Has it ever occurred to either one of you that the reason these people are in office is because of the voters? Who the fuck else would they vote for? Paul? The guy totally whacked out and sold out to "the system" by running as a Republican. Nader? Give me a break. Barr? The guy is a Borat joke. Your real problem is as much the lack of a real third party leader as it is the system. Given the realities the Democrats are the only choice at this time. Make another one viable, and who knows what would happen.
How can you blame the voters? They just get to choose between the giant douche and the turd sandwich. The parties choose which douche and which turd will represent them.
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post #10 of 41 (permalink) Old 05-14-2008, 01:03 PM
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Has it ever occurred to either one of you that the reason these people are in office is because of the voters? Who the fuck else would they vote for? Paul? The guy totally whacked out and sold out to "the system" by running as a Republican. Nader? Give me a break. Barr? The guy is a Borat joke. Your real problem is as much the lack of a real third party leader as it is the system. Given the realities the Democrats are the only choice at this time. Make another one viable, and who knows what would happen.
Which of our two parties wants to act toward abdicating their lock on the system, or the power that system imposes on the electorate? Tell me which one, and that is the one I'll support. Most Americans hear three political voices in our country, Republican, Democrat, and the Lunatic Fringe. They were born into a system that promotes that image, and they'll likely die believing in that image as an inescapable truth.

"If spending money you don't have is the height of stupidity, borrowing money to give it away is the height of insanity." -- anon
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