Quote:
Originally Posted by Jakarta Expat
You Fear Monger, how lo can you go, Jay himself said the economy is on the way back, nothing can stop it.........
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The current forecast models are pretty scary, mainly because there are so many predictable constants between now and November, and very few alternate outcomes:
1) The War in Iraq will continue in the current stalemate
2) US Deficit spending will continue at a horrendous rate
3) US trade imbalance will improve slightly due to the lowering of the value of the dollar, but not much to make a difference
4) US energy policy will continue to be non-existant
5) US will continue to purchase insanely for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, creating more demand than necessary in the crude market at insane prices (controlled by George Bush, go figger)
6) Dollar will continue to drop as long as oil is priced in dollars
7) Dollar will drop if oil is no longer priced in dollars
8) Inflated home equity loans on paper-inflated home values are no longer possible for homeowners to easily obtained, so available credit will decrease
9) Any slowdown in the US economy that causes decreases in oil consumption will simply be made up for by the booming economies of Asia, meaning the US consumer economy faces recession and ever-higher fuel costs at the same time, aggravated by the Bush foreign policy of aggravating two of the biggest oil suppliers, VZ and Iran, causing a constant upward speculative pressure on oil prices, again, go figger.
All of this points to a "stagflation" economy for the US middle class. Ever increasing prices while no real growth in wages and income. Global companies should do fairly well. Consumer market, financials, auto makers, well, not so good.