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post #231 of 286 (permalink) Old 07-30-2008, 01:15 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Shane View Post
Why does Jay even care if we are in a recession or not? Does his party affiliation and devotion run that deep? Does he think attaching the "r" name will make his party lose the up coming pres. election? As he has stated before he doesn't care which party rules so why all the effort to presumably booster one party over the other?
As I've explained before, my raison d'etra for being in BWOT is to educate the numbskulls and keep the Kookbergers honest. No party affiliation required for that... And the only "r" word I use in relation to our economy is resilient!

Don't believe everything you think
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post #232 of 286 (permalink) Old 07-30-2008, 01:34 PM
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I can't believe you're trying to pass that off as being relevant to all of the various data sets I presented. At least look at what I posted before you make a total fool of yourself!

In your rush to be negative, you failed to even read your own table. Though it is not applicable to what I posted, it indicates a maximum 14% (not 14 point) margin of error. 14% of 54 EXPERTS is 7.56% maximum possible error. Most of what I presented are hard data, and not subject to your table of error. Those that surveyed are not random people's opinions--which that silly table assumes--but carefully selected and internationally respected experts in economics.

I used to respect and pay attention to your many criticisms, but now days you seem to be just throwing BearShit up in the air and hoping someone believe you or that no one will recognize your obviously fraudulent points.
Um, you might want to look up Survey Margin of Error. Try this. Margin of Error and Confidence Levels Made Simple

Your definition is completely off. First, the error rate is calculated off the the results, not the number of those surveyed. Your calculation of 14% of 54 sample is not germane. The calculation is off the RESULT number of 51/49 and is +/- 14 points from that result.

The folks at SixSigma can clarify for you...or not.

I read all the data you posted. Much of what you presented is projections, not actual data and as was earlier posted, the projections from the past six months have PROVEN to be off by as much as 40%. The trends don't support the projections shown. The trends support flat AT BEST, and with Inflation, negative growth.

The key is the first table on the left [Changing Views] of the linked article "Do you think we are CURRENTLY IN A RECESSION?". If we believe the margin of error for the surveys, 67% of those "carefully selected and internationally respected experts in economics" believe we are already in a RECESSION. A majority still do.

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post #233 of 286 (permalink) Old 07-30-2008, 01:40 PM
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As I've explained before, my raison d'etra for being in BWOT is to educate the numbskulls and keep the Kookbergers honest. No party affiliation required for that... And the only "r" word I use in relation to our economy is resilient!
When do you plan on starting that quest? The warmup act is aging poorly.

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post #234 of 286 (permalink) Old 07-30-2008, 01:44 PM
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Public perception vs. self perception, the infinite chasm.

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post #235 of 286 (permalink) Old 07-30-2008, 02:29 PM Thread Starter
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Um, you might want to look up Survey Margin of Error. Try this. Margin of Error and Confidence Levels Made Simple

Your definition is completely off. First, the error rate is calculated off the the results, not the number of those surveyed. Your calculation of 14% of 54 sample is not germane. The calculation is off the RESULT number of 51/49 and is +/- 14 points from that result.

The folks at SixSigma can clarify for you...or not.

I read all the data you posted. Much of what you presented is projections, not actual data and as was earlier posted, the projections from the past six months have PROVEN to be off by as much as 40%. The trends don't support the projections shown. The trends support flat AT BEST, and with Inflation, negative growth.

The key is the first table on the left [Changing Views] of the linked article "Do you think we are CURRENTLY IN A RECESSION?". If we believe the margin of error for the surveys, 67% of those "carefully selected and internationally respected experts in economics" believe we are already in a RECESSION. A majority still do.
Just more parsing, evasion, misdirection and, I will add, obfuscation! And you never even address my primary criticism, which was that that silly table of yours assumes a RANDOM SAMPLE. The 54 CAREFULLY SELECTED AND INTERNATIONALLY RESPECTED ECONOMISTS surveyed are anything but a RANDOM SAMPLE. Thus my original point: APPLES AND ORANGES

I believe it is YOU who is becoming irrelevant!

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post #236 of 286 (permalink) Old 07-30-2008, 02:32 PM Thread Starter
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Public perception vs. self perception, the infinite chasm.
It is nothing compared to the infinite chasm between your ears!

Don't believe everything you think
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post #237 of 286 (permalink) Old 07-30-2008, 02:36 PM
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Just more parsing, evasion, misdirection and, I will add, obfuscation! And you never even address my primary criticism, which was tat silly table of yours assumes a RANDOM SAMPLE. The 54 CAREFULLY SELECTED AND INTERNATIONALLY RESPECTED ECONOMISTS surveyed are anything but a RANDOM SAMPLE. Thus my original point: APPLES AND ORANGES

I believe it is YOU who is becoming irrelevant!
It does not matter who is sampled, the margin of error is based on the SIZE of the sample, not the quality.

Now, as for the "carefully selected" part of your comment, that can go either way. Carefully selected could mean that they were chosen specifically for their expertise OR it could mean that they were chosen to attain certain results on the survey. If Gallup did the survey then it was randomized within the field and the MoE stands.

And it's not my table, it's the standard MoE table for surveys. If you don't like it, email Dr. Hunter at SixSigma. I am sure she will appreciate the humor of your discussion.

McBear,
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post #238 of 286 (permalink) Old 07-30-2008, 02:48 PM Thread Starter
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It does not matter who is sampled, the margin of error is based on the SIZE of the sample, not the quality.

Now, as for the "carefully selected" part of your comment, that can go either way. Carefully selected could mean that they were chosen specifically for their expertise OR it could mean that they were chosen to attain certain results on the survey. If Gallup did the survey then it was randomized within the field and the MoE stands.

And it's not my table, it's the standard MoE table for surveys. If you don't like it, email Dr. Hunter at SixSigma. I am sure she will appreciate the humor of your discussion.
Jesus bear! You just keep making this shit up knowing that most here won't see you for what you are--A FRAUD!

Wiki it: The sample will usually be completely representative of the population from which it was drawn— this random variation in the results is known as sampling error. In the case of random samples, mathematical theory is available to assess the sampling error. Thus, estimates obtained from random samples can be accompanied by measures of the uncertainty associated with the estimate. This can take the form of a standard error, or if the sample is large enough for the central limit theorem to take effect, confidence intervals may be calculated.

You're just mad because there isn't going to be a recession to hang on President Bush!

Don't believe everything you think

Last edited by Jayhawk; 07-30-2008 at 02:50 PM.
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post #239 of 286 (permalink) Old 07-30-2008, 03:42 PM
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JYou're just mad because there isn't going to be a recession to hang on President Bush!
No one is mad here, you dumb fuck.

The mere fact that he turned trillions of dollars surplus into trillions of dollars deficit speaks for itself. Can you dispute that?

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post #240 of 286 (permalink) Old 07-30-2008, 07:16 PM
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Jesus bear! You just keep making this shit up knowing that most here won't see you for what you are--A FRAUD!

Wiki it: The sample will usually be completely representative of the population from which it was drawn— this random variation in the results is known as sampling error. In the case of random samples, mathematical theory is available to assess the sampling error. Thus, estimates obtained from random samples can be accompanied by measures of the uncertainty associated with the estimate. This can take the form of a standard error, or if the sample is large enough for the central limit theorem to take effect, confidence intervals may be calculated.

You're just mad because there isn't going to be a recession to hang on President Bush!
I believe you meant to say another recession but nonetheless, YOUR survey that YOU posted stated that 67% already believe that a RECESSION is in place.

As I mentioned at first, a survey by any 54 folks, unless they represent 100% of the pool is an irrelevant survey and the results are dubious at best.

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