Looks like the Liberals can't get it right.......... - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 13 (permalink) Old 03-26-2008, 09:21 AM Thread Starter
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Looks like the Liberals can't get it right..........

If I can't get my way, I'll just vote for the Republicans..............

If McCain vs. Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCain

March 26, 2008
If McCain vs. Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCainIf McCain vs. Clinton, 19% of Obama backers go for McCainUSA Democrats Election 2008 Government and Politics Americas Northern America by Frank Newport
PRINCETON, NJ -- A sizable proportion of Democrats would vote for John McCain next November if he is matched against the candidate they do not support for the Democratic nomination. This is particularly true for Hillary Clinton supporters, more than a quarter of whom currently say they would vote for McCain if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.



These conclusions are based on an analysis of Democratic voters' responses to separate voting questions in March 7-22 Gallup Poll Daily election tracking. In each day's survey, respondents are asked for their general election preferences in McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama pairings. Democratic voters are then asked whom they support for their party's nomination.

The accompanying graph displays the results of the relationship between support for the Democratic Party's nomination and the general election vote between Obama and McCain.



As would be expected, almost all Democratic voters who say they support Obama for their party's nomination also say they would vote for him in a general election matchup against McCain. But only 59% of Democratic voters who support Clinton say they would vote for Obama against McCain, while 28% say they would vote for the Republican McCain. This suggests that some Clinton supporters are so strongly opposed to Obama (or so loyal to Clinton) that they would go so far as to vote for the "other" party's candidate next November if Obama is the Democratic nominee.

The results follow the same pattern, but not to quite the same extent, when the relationship between Democratic support and a general election matchup between Clinton and McCain is examined.



Here again, as expected, almost all of those who support Clinton for the Democratic Party's nomination say they would vote for her against McCain. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama for the party's nomination would vote for Clinton against McCain, while 19% would desert and vote for the Republican.

Implications

The data suggest that the continuing and sometimes fractious Democratic nomination fight could have a negative impact for the Democratic Party in next November's election. A not insignificant percentage of both Obama and Clinton supporters currently say they would vote for McCain if he ends up running against the candidate they do not support.

Clinton supporters appear to be somewhat more reactive than Obama supporters. Twenty-eight percent of the former indicate that if Clinton is not the nominee -- and Obama is -- they would support McCain. That compares to 19% of Obama supporters who would support McCain if Obama is not the nominee -- and Clinton is.

It is unknown how many Democrats would actually carry through and vote for a Republican next fall if their preferred candidate does not become the Democratic nominee. The Democratic campaign is in the heat of battle at the moment, but by November, there will have been several months of attempts to build party unity around the eventual nominee -- and a focus on reasons why the Republican nominee needs to be defeated.

Additionally, some threat of deserting the party always takes place as party nomination battles are waged, and this threat can dissipate. For example, in answer to a recent Gallup question, 11% of Republicans said they would vote for the Democratic candidate or a third-party candidate next fall if McCain does not choose a vice president who is considerably more conservative than he is. (And another 9% said they just wouldn't vote.) These results suggest that it may be normal for some voters to claim early on in the process -- perhaps out of frustration -- that they will desert their party if certain things do not happen to their liking. And it may be equally likely that they fall back into line by the time of the general election. It is worth noting that in Gallup's historical final pre-election polls from 1992 to 2004, 10% or less of Republicans and Democrats typically vote for the other party's presidential candidate.

Still, when almost 3 out of 10 Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain over Obama, it suggests that divisions are running deep within the Democratic Party. If the fight for the party's nomination were to continue until the Denver convention in late August, the Democratic Party could suffer some damage as it tries to regroup for the November general election.

"Negotiating with Obama is like playing chess with a pigeon, the pigeon knocks over all the pieces, on the board and then struts around like it won the game."
Vladimir Putin

"They have gun control in Cuba. They have universal health care in Cuba. So why do they want to come here?"
Paul Harvey 8/31/94


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post #2 of 13 (permalink) Old 03-26-2008, 09:33 AM
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If Hillary gets the nomination I am voting Nader. hmmm I wonder what would happen if people who would have voted for Obama end up going for Nader? If I was Nader I would start courting Republicans that can't stand McCain and this would surely make the soup tastier.
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post #3 of 13 (permalink) Old 03-26-2008, 09:37 AM
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Hillary R. Clinton, the new Joe Lieberman. Who would have predicted she would run a poorly planned campaign and then damage the country and ruin the Democratic Party by endorsing McCain on her way to losing the Democratic Presidential nomination? This was hers, on a silver platter at this time last year. And she alone is responsible for her loss. It is a good thing she won't be taking that operating mode into the White House. We have had enough destructive divisiveness over the last 7 years to last a lifetime. Jim
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post #4 of 13 (permalink) Old 03-26-2008, 10:04 AM
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post #5 of 13 (permalink) Old 03-26-2008, 10:05 AM
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Hillary R. Clinton, the new Joe Lieberman. Who would have predicted she would run a poorly planned campaign and then damage the country and ruin the Democratic Party by endorsing McCain on her way to losing the Democratic Presidential nomination? This was hers, on a silver platter at this time last year. And she alone is responsible for her loss. It is a good thing she won't be taking that operating mode into the White House. We have had enough destructive divisiveness over the last 7 years to last a lifetime. Jim
As you quite rightly said in another post, Bush Lite.

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post #6 of 13 (permalink) Old 03-26-2008, 10:51 AM
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As I posted the last time one of these RDD polls came out, it is not possible to draw conclusions until it comes down do RD.

Historically Democrats who say they would not vote for another Democrat if "their" Democrat does not get the nod fully support the Democratic ticket in the General Election.

Much like many Republicans, just two months ago were saying that if McCain got the Republican nod they would stay at home or vote Democratic. I note that those voices have gone deathly quiet.

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post #7 of 13 (permalink) Old 03-26-2008, 11:29 AM
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I wonder what the possibility is that it will be a McCain-Lieberman ticket? Talking about throwing a wrench in it.

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post #8 of 13 (permalink) Old 03-26-2008, 12:05 PM
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If Hillary gets the nomination I am voting Nader. hmmm I wonder what would happen if people who would have voted for Obama end up going for Nader? If I was Nader I would start courting Republicans that can't stand McCain and this would surely make the soup tastier.
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post #9 of 13 (permalink) Old 03-26-2008, 12:08 PM
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I wonder what the possibility is that it will be a McCain-Lieberman ticket? Talking about throwing a wrench in it.
I was actually taking to friends last night that there was enough ego and hubris in the Clinton campaign, and enough friendship between her and McCain that I wouldn't be surprised if she didn't team with McCain to form a "BiPartisian Ticket to Heal America".

I can just hear the internal discussion of McCain's age and the odds that she would inherit the presidency.

If she does not win big in Penn, or a brokering occurs to stop the silliness and puts her odd candidate out, don't bet against it.

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post #10 of 13 (permalink) Old 03-26-2008, 12:16 PM
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I was actually taking to friends last night that there was enough ego and hubris in the Clinton campaign, and enough friendship between her and McCain that I wouldn't be surprised if she didn't team with McCain to form a "BiPartisian Ticket to Heal America".

I can just hear the internal discussion of McCain's age and the odds that she would inherit the presidency.

If she does not win big in Penn, or a brokering occurs to stop the silliness and puts her odd candidate out, don't bet against it.
An interesting thought... "McClinton" I don't think it would work because that ticket would be considerably left of center, and it seems to me that McCain has to look to his right to have a chance in the general.

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