SHOCK POLL: 1 in 5 Dems Defect to McCain if Their Candidate Loses Nomination... - Mercedes-Benz Forum

 
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post #1 of 6 (permalink) Old 03-21-2008, 08:15 PM Thread Starter
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SHOCK POLL: 1 in 5 Dems Defect to McCain if Their Candidate Loses Nomination...

(CNSNews.com) - The lengthy Democratic primary contest bodes well for Republican chances of holding the White House, a new poll suggests.

As Democratic Senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York slug it out for the nomination, many of their supporters -- at least in Pennsylvania, site of the next major primary -- aren't committed to the party's ticket in November, according to a Franklin & Marshall College Poll.

Among Obama supporters, 20 percent said they would vote for Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee, if Clinton beats their candidate for the nomination. Among Clinton supporters, 19 percent said they would support McCain in November if Obama is the Democratic nominee. (See poll)

The significant number of potential defectors underscores how divisive the Democratic primary has been.

Poll: Divisive Dem Contest Could Boost McCain -- 03/21/2008

Don't believe everything you think
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post #2 of 6 (permalink) Old 03-21-2008, 08:18 PM
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I think that is the game plan, actually.

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post #3 of 6 (permalink) Old 03-21-2008, 08:38 PM
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I always go to Franklin & Marshall College for my Polling needs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by From the Poll Report
Interviews were completed with 464 registered Democrats in Pennsylvania. Telephone numbers for the survey were generated via random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. The sample error for the entire sample is +/- 4.5 percent. Among the 294 likely Democratic voters, the sample error is slightly larger (+/- 5.7 percent). In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of error that could arise, such as questionnaire design, non-response, and the interviewing process itself.
I don't recall seeing a national poll with less that 1000 responses years.

So, they interviewed 464 Democrats, though the numbers were randomly digitally dialed and "among the 294 likely Democratic voters..." Interesting math.



http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keymar08_1.pdf

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post #4 of 6 (permalink) Old 03-21-2008, 08:45 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
I always go to Franklin & Marshall College for my Polling needs.



I don't recall seeing a national poll with less that 1000 responses years.

So, they interviewed 464 Democrats, though the numbers were randomly digitally dialed and "among the 294 likely Democratic voters..." Interesting math.



http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keymar08_1.pdf
You obviously flunked your statistics classes. You can conduct an accurate opinion poll w/ 200-300 random calls. It just changes the margin of error a bit. It only goes down a fraction of a % w/ each additional 1000 or so people.

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post #5 of 6 (permalink) Old 03-21-2008, 08:47 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
I always go to Franklin & Marshall College for my Polling needs.



Is that where all the cute co-eds hang out?
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post #6 of 6 (permalink) Old 03-21-2008, 09:40 PM
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I like the margin of error for that "poll"--weak
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