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post #1 of 24 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 08:30 AM Thread Starter
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Stock market?

Well, it seems, for now, that the rally may have been temporary and this a.m., half the gains have been wiped out. Maybe, by days end, I won't be bumming black walnuts from the squirrels for our final meal of the day.

2005 S430 4Matic 'Morton' W220.183 • 722.671 Rest in Peace

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post #2 of 24 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 09:02 AM
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This is exactly the right time to be nibbling back in, if you are out, and buying more if you are still in the market. IMO

Don't believe everything you think
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post #3 of 24 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 09:06 AM Thread Starter
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Nibble, Nibble.
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2005 S430 4Matic 'Morton' W220.183 • 722.671 Rest in Peace

Bells and whistles are thorns and thistles.
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post #4 of 24 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 12:13 PM Thread Starter
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Nibble, nibble, nibble.
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post #5 of 24 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 12:30 PM
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We are where we were in the middle of 2006. Right now there is nothing to indicate that the Bubble that occurred after that, around Oct 2007 was nothing more than a run-up Bubble, not a continuation of a trend.

With the exception of the 7700 trough in 2002 Recession and the 14000 spike in Oct 2007 the market has been in the 10-11000 range for about 7 years. It is not at it's bottom.

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post #6 of 24 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 08:45 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
We are where we were in the middle of 2006. Right now there is nothing to indicate that the Bubble that occurred after that, around Oct 2007 was nothing more than a run-up Bubble, not a continuation of a trend.

With the exception of the 7700 trough in 2002 Recession and the 14000 spike in Oct 2007 the market has been in the 10-11000 range for about 7 years. It is not at it's bottom.

Exactly, it is some ways from the bottom, the EU has pleading with the European banks to disclose all of their problems right now, these guys are going to continue to only disclose their problems when they have to.
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post #7 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 05:14 PM
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My thesis is that we have a relief rally off of the weds and thurs decline. In addition we have a low data week and lots of good press around the president elect and his potential economic advisors, to quote Alan Gayle of Ridgeworth "last week was about how bad things are, this week is about what we're going to do about it". Add the potential for the dems to talk of motor city bailouts buoying that sector and negating the drag it is on the market. Then there is the Russian statement that they will not go along with any OPEC production cuts which should act as a down force to oil price. Lastly for now, the $586 Billion China stimulus package should be a lift for the Asian markets leading into monday trading here.

The USD also shows signs of continued strengthening against the european currencies, which could act in either direction for the market depending on how the market views the relationship between manufacturing costs of overseas feedstocks, and export reductions due to increased cost to overseas customers. I have this in my neutral column because I haven't decided which is more likely, and even if the USD is in fact showing upside.


Opposing force could be the Russia/Argentina war games and Nuke talk, the Berkshire report, the strength of the Bond market, and any worse than expected earnings reports that arise.

For these reasons I conclude this weeks plays are to the long side.

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post #8 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 05:19 PM
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I had thought that if the market gets to around 10,000 - 11,000 again in the next month or so, I'm moving into treasuries or something cash-like....yes? no?
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post #9 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 05:26 PM
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If it makes that big a move upwards i'd follow it by buying SKF the ultra short of the financials.

When devils will the blackest sins put on, they do suggest, at first with heavenly shows - Othello
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post #10 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 05:27 PM
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I was talking mostly for 401(k) purposes; there's no way we're staying at 10k if it gets there again, are we? I'm kind of expecting the bottom to be way below 8,000 unless a lot of very good news occurs between now and January.
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