BenzWorld Senior Member
Date registered: Sep 2008
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Quoted: 9 Post(s)
My thesis is that we have a relief rally off of the weds and thurs decline. In addition we have a low data week and lots of good press around the president elect and his potential economic advisors, to quote Alan Gayle of Ridgeworth "last week was about how bad things are, this week is about what we're going to do about it". Add the potential for the dems to talk of motor city bailouts buoying that sector and negating the drag it is on the market. Then there is the Russian statement that they will not go along with any OPEC production cuts which should act as a down force to oil price. Lastly for now, the $586 Billion China stimulus package should be a lift for the Asian markets leading into monday trading here.
The USD also shows signs of continued strengthening against the european currencies, which could act in either direction for the market depending on how the market views the relationship between manufacturing costs of overseas feedstocks, and export reductions due to increased cost to overseas customers. I have this in my neutral column because I haven't decided which is more likely, and even if the USD is in fact showing upside.
Opposing force could be the Russia/Argentina war games and Nuke talk, the Berkshire report, the strength of the Bond market, and any worse than expected earnings reports that arise.
For these reasons I conclude this weeks plays are to the long side.
When devils will the blackest sins put on, they do suggest, at first with heavenly shows - Othello