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post #11 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 05:35 PM
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If you went long the market on Buffets call you're up 12.5% in 3 weeks. If your time frame is long you should be adding to your 401k's and the like as much as you can. I still think we could test the lows but I think a bottom is set in at DJIA 8000, and it is well defended.
If you have the time to be in front of your computer and want to be a trader that's a different story, but if you're a typical buy and hold investor and you have been adding your monthly contributions you're likely to look back on these times as the best of your life 10 years from now.
I was around for the tech bubble and the crash of '87 and heard all the same things then, but even in the face of some serious losses, I kept up my contributions. It took a while to recover but the money I contributed during the worst times is the money that has increased the most. A balanced portfolio and sensible allocations is still the best way to do this thing for 99% of folks.

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post #12 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 05:37 PM
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That's comforting. I've definitely kept buying in as it's gone down, and am hoping it doesn't take long to get back to 14k when it takes off again, because it'll definitely be a boon for me.
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post #13 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 05:40 PM
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Yes, Cozette is right! Pay down debt and invest
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post #14 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 07:51 PM
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Originally Posted by QBNCGAR View Post
I was talking mostly for 401(k) purposes; there's no way we're staying at 10k if it gets there again, are we? I'm kind of expecting the bottom to be way below 8,000 unless a lot of very good news occurs between now and January.
You DO realize that one of the upcoming changes might be to fold your 401k into Social Security, right?

Dems Target Private Retirement Accounts

Would Obama, Dems Kill 401(k) Plans? - Capital Commerce (usnews.com)

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

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post #15 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 08:10 PM
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You DO realize that one of the upcoming changes might be to fold your 401k into Social Security, right?

Dems Target Private Retirement Accounts

Would Obama, Dems Kill 401(k) Plans? - Capital Commerce (usnews.com)
I don't see this happening. While it would help one segment of the economy it would hurt another segment so the net, net would be nil. The downside on the political side, on the other hand would be devastating.

I think that there is a potential that some age groups of folks could be given the OPTION of merging their accounts as they move forward, which would begin the weaning of the SSI system and start putting the responsibility on the end user. But that would not/could not be blanket.

My reading of the original proposal does not suggest the draconian approach. I only see that in SOME news articles.

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post #16 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 08:13 PM
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post #17 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 08:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
I don't see this happening. While it would help one segment of the economy it would hurt another segment so the net, net would be nil. The downside on the political side, on the other hand would be devastating.

I think that there is a potential that some age groups of folks could be given the OPTION of merging their accounts as they move forward, which would begin the weaning of the SSI system and start putting the responsibility on the end user. But that would not/could not be blanket.

My reading of the original proposal does not suggest the draconian approach. I only see that in SOME news articles.
Calls for yet another hypothetical . . . under which article of the Constitution could our federal government do that (the original take the 401k thing)?

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post #18 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 08:25 PM
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Calls for yet another hypothetical . . . under which article of the Constitution could our federal government do that (the original take the 401k thing)?
The term "401k" comes from the code for the law that allows this type of tax free investment, and what Congress giveth, it can taketh away, simply by declaring what the tax situation would be with that type of investment. Congress is able to do this under it's taxation powers granted to it in the Constitution. It wouldn't actually "take" your 401k, it would simply remove the tax advantages from those type of accounts, and give tax advantages to some sort of other type of account, forcing you to transfer the funds to avoid the new tax. It's one of the reasons people should have been taking advantage of the Roth IRAs, my guess is they are going to be phased out under the Dems.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address

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post #19 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 08:28 PM
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Originally Posted by cozette View Post
If you went long the market on Buffets call you're up 12.5% in 3 weeks. If your time frame is long you should be adding to your 401k's and the like as much as you can. I still think we could test the lows but I think a bottom is set in at DJIA 8000, and it is well defended.
If you have the time to be in front of your computer and want to be a trader that's a different story, but if you're a typical buy and hold investor and you have been adding your monthly contributions you're likely to look back on these times as the best of your life 10 years from now.
I was around for the tech bubble and the crash of '87 and heard all the same things then, but even in the face of some serious losses, I kept up my contributions. It took a while to recover but the money I contributed during the worst times is the money that has increased the most. A balanced portfolio and sensible allocations is still the best way to do this thing for 99% of folks.

My gut feeling is to wait until the DOW closes at 8000. That will be the bottom. I'm am jumping back in then. Right now, I think loading up on some value funds would be a good idea, those fund managers must be having a field day picking up bargains that will pay off later.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

-President Barack Obama, 1st Inaugural address
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post #20 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-09-2008, 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted by edfreeman View Post
Calls for yet another hypothetical . . . under which article of the Constitution could our federal government do that (the original take the 401k thing)?
From the Official Social Security website, something that might have had simliarities...

Social Security Online History Pages

DILL-CONNERY BILL


In 1933, a bill was introduced to meet this particular problem at the Federal level. It was known as the Dill-Connery Bill. Its sponsors were Senator Clarence Dill of Washington and Congressman Bill Connery, an old vaudeville star and a very delightful fellow from Lynn, Massachusetts. They proposed grants-in-aid by the Federal Government to the States in amounts up to $15 a month per person to be matched by the States and to be used for the payment of old-age pensions. The bill did not get immediate attention from the Administration. As I look back, I'm rather surprised that the bill didn't go through on its own merits because there was an obvious need. Many States were anxious for this kind of help and inevitably the politician (the Congressman) had to be aware of the fact that old people do vote and this kind of legislation, if supported, would be a good political argument in favor of the record of the man who voted for it. Why didn't the Dill-Connery Bill go through in 1933, or even in 1934? Well, perhaps one reason was that in 1933 the immediate and extreme crisis typified by the closing of every single bank in the country, on the day that Mr. Roosevelt took office, required recovery legislation, not long-range reform of an economic system. The big thing was somehow to get the economy going quickly. In trying to meet that need, the Congress very nearly abdicated its own lawmaking function and turned it over to the dynamic new Administration, especially to the dynamic new President. That was followed, of course, by the historic 100 days when more legislation of significant substance--good or bad--was passed by the Congress than in any other comparable peacetime period in our history, by far. But it wasn't old-age pension legislation, and it wasn't something designed for the "long pull." In 1934, the bill very nearly did pass and the fact that it didn't is tied up with the attitude of the Administration, primarily of the President, toward the whole field of security for people in the United States.

There's a lot more.

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Last edited by Digmenow; 11-09-2008 at 08:33 PM.
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