The end is (not) near! - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #1 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-13-2008, 10:40 PM Thread Starter
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The end is (not) near!

Every time you turn on the TV, it seems as though the news is negative regarding the economy, the dollar, the stock market, banks, credit, real estate, oil, etc. Plus you have the election bickering, now the Spitzer scandal, and the Federal Reserve appears to be in "panic" mode.

However, please remember that the media present the sensational. It sells. It gets attention. Bad news gets more attention than good news because of the alarm factor. So, good news gets swept aside.

But, is there any good news? Of course there is. Mortgage refinancing is actually at its highest level since March '04. New home inventories are at their lowest level in two years (meaning over-supply is reducing), lower interest rates mean lower borrowing costs for consumers, the global economy is strong, retail sales are sluggish, but not disastrous, unemployment has risen, but is still below 5%, and S&P sees an end to subprime mortgage writedowns. So, not all news is bad news.

Does this mean that we are headed straight up from here? No. I still believe there are some major structural issues with the financial markets. However, even when things look bad, they are usually not as bad as they appear. And, if you look at the bad news, you miss the opportunities that are developing.

I believe an opportunity may be developing now. One of my market indicators has flashed a major buy signal. This indicator will issue a buy signal when the markets have fallen significantly and look to be poised to turn around. Since 1991 (the earliest data I have), there have been ten times in which markets fell to this level and a signal was generated. In EVERY case, the market was significantly higher within a few weeks.

Accordingly, I believe that a few weeks from now, we will be able to look back and see that this was a good time to buy. It may sell down a bit more between now and then, but historic precedence supports this view. Time will tell!

Don't believe everything you think
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post #2 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-13-2008, 10:42 PM
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Does this mean you're buying now? Does it mean you sold earlier? Oh that's right, you don't know
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post #3 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 12:09 AM
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Pollyanna.

Pol·ly·an·na (pl-n)
n.
A person regarded as being foolishly or blindly optimistic.

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Jim
<--- superschnelle 300 hp 10:1 ECE euro HV, Hochverdichtung = high compression (11/2011) ... Wie im Freien Fall. Nur horizontal.


"I swear to god, it's like I live in a trailer of common sense, and stare out the window at a tornado of stupidity." >'='<
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post #4 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 05:38 AM
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Well at least Marsden and Cascade are living in the real world............and I fully agree with Marsden and Cascade but to be fair and give our Bird a chance, we will record where the market is now the morning (US time) of the 14th of March 2008 for future reference down the road.................

Indexes
Name Last Change &#37;Change
Dow 12,145.74 +35.50 +0.29%
Nasdaq 2,263.61 unch 0.00%
S&P 1,315.48 unch 0.00%

Index Futures
Name Last Change %Change
Dow 12,147.00 unch 0.00%
Nasdaq 1,748.50 unch 0.00%
S&P 1,313.30 unch 0.00%

Commodities
Name Last Change %Change
Gold APR-2008 993.80 unch 0.00%
Silver MAY-2008 20.42 unch 0.00%
Light Sweet Crude Oil MAY-2008 109.17 unch 0.00%

Treasuries
Name Last Change Yield
13-wk Bill 1.34 unch 1.36%
5-yr Note 101.09 unch 2.50%
10-yr Note 99.75 unch 3.52%

Currency Rates
Currency In US Dollar Per US Dollar
Argentine Peso 0.31817 3.14300
Australian Dollar 0.93906 1.06490
Brazilian Real 0.59294 1.68650
British Pound 2.02470 0.49390
Canadian Dollar 1.01297 0.98720
Chinese Yuan 0.14111 7.08660
Euro 1.55642 0.64250
Hong Kong Dollar 0.12851 7.78160
Indian Rupee 0.02481 40.31300
Japanese Yen 0.00995 100.55000
Korean Won 0.00100 997.44999
Mexican Peso 0.09293 10.76130
Russian Rouble 0.04222 23.68610
Swedish Krona 0.16476 6.06930
Swiss Franc 0.99177 1.00830

Last edited by Jakarta Expat; 03-14-2008 at 05:52 AM.
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post #5 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 06:48 AM
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The end is very far . . . but we should think its near to do good things . . .
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post #6 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 08:06 AM
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Having the End near can be a good thing;

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post #7 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 08:08 AM
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Does your wife know you post good stuff like this.
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post #8 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 08:10 AM
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^^^ every now & then. Shhhhh.
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post #9 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 08:26 AM
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Originally Posted by yoseyman View Post
^^^ every now & then. Shhhhh.

Hell, I thought that was your wife............
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post #10 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-14-2008, 08:30 AM
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Hell, I thought that was your wife............
again......Shhhhhh
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