Dow Jumps More Than 400 Points! - Page 39 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #381 of 437 (permalink) Old 04-01-2008, 09:50 PM
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Originally Posted by QBNCGAR View Post
^ Has that really been substantiated? That's approaching 1 in 10 people. Come on....
I don't make that up. It was coming from the Federal Government studies. Go ask those genius. Damn if you think I am going to stand in the grocery store check out lines and count them just to verrify that number for you.

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post #382 of 437 (permalink) Old 04-01-2008, 09:53 PM
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Well, Elau, shall the Gimmiecrats pass a bill allocating that $19 million in salary to the 28 million on food stamps? I figure each one will get about 68 cents less the 41 cents for postage. Frankly, you should be outraged by the cost of stamps--postage stamps.
Thats a question for you to ask. Einstein.

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post #383 of 437 (permalink) Old 04-01-2008, 09:57 PM Thread Starter
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The key phrase there was "IF the analyst...". The White House never told anyone that they were changing the way they calculated inflation, or the way they calculated deficit spending for that matter. It took investigative reporters to look at the numbers that were given, note that they looked wrong to what was happening in the real world and push for answers. Once the cat was out of the bag, BLS started putting out the additional columns in the datasets.

So, yes, it was intentionally done to deceive, to make the tax cuts look like they were working on two levels. But like much of the rest of the Bush Administration, it was done poorly and easily caught.
Chicken Little become Peter Paranoia...

For the record:
Issues in measuring inflation

Measuring inflation requires finding objective ways of separating out changes in nominal prices from other influences related to real activity. In the simplest possible case, if the price of a 10 oz. can of corn changes from $0.90 to $1.00 over the course of a year, with no change in quality, then this price change represents inflation. But we are usually more interested in knowing how the overall cost of living changes, and therefore instead of looking at the change in price of one good, we want to know how the price of a large 'basket' of goods and services changes. This is the purpose of looking at a price index, which is a weighted average of many prices. The weights in the Consumer Price Index, for example, represent the fraction of spending that typical consumers spend on each type of goods (using data collected by surveying households).

Inflation measures are often modified over time, either for the relative weight of goods in the basket, or in the way in which goods from the present are compared with goods from the past. This includes hedonic adjustments and “reweighing” as well as using chained measures of inflation. As with many economic numbers, inflation numbers are often seasonally adjusted in order to differentiate expected cyclical cost increases, versus changes in the economy. Inflation numbers are averaged or otherwise subjected to statistical techniques in order to remove statistical noise and volatility of individual prices. Finally, when looking at inflation, economic institutions sometimes only look at subsets or special indices. One common set is inflation excluding food and energy, which is often called “core inflation”.

Don't believe everything you think

Last edited by Jayhawk; 04-01-2008 at 10:20 PM.
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post #384 of 437 (permalink) Old 04-01-2008, 10:26 PM
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Yep, those are the new commerce projections for Q1 2008. And you are correct it is 1:10. And the key is everyone of those folks have to qualify. They have to run through the system and now that it is a debit card, It is harder to cheat the system. It does go for food.

Here is the original source, from a January 22, 2008 document by the CBO.




Testimony on Options for Responding to Short-Term Economic Weakness
If they have to qualify maybe they should come to Illinois and see all the "poor" people on "food stamps" and how "they" cheat the system. A good number of "them" eat, dress, and drive better than I. Maybe I should go and "qualify" too!!

Waayyyyyyyyy to many of "them" cheat the system and we all pay for that bullshit. I say get rid of the system and expand the soup kitchens, bet most of them would then get a job a participate in society.

Whats even more funny over here is when one of "them" is robbed or residence burglured, they are missing PS3s 100's of cd and dvds.....yup there be alot of honest poor folk out there.

The system is broken and is not worth shit.

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post #385 of 437 (permalink) Old 04-01-2008, 10:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Jayhawk View Post
Chicken Little become Peter Paranoia...

For the record:
Issues in measuring inflation

Measuring inflation requires finding objective ways of separating out changes in nominal prices from other influences related to real activity. In the simplest possible case, if the price of a 10 oz. can of corn changes from $0.90 to $1.00 over the course of a year, with no change in quality, then this price change represents inflation. But we are usually more interested in knowing how the overall cost of living changes, and therefore instead of looking at the change in price of one good, we want to know how the price of a large 'basket' of goods and services changes. This is the purpose of looking at a price index, which is a weighted average of many prices. The weights in the Consumer Price Index, for example, represent the fraction of spending that typical consumers spend on each type of goods (using data collected by surveying households).

Inflation measures are often modified over time, either for the relative weight of goods in the basket, or in the way in which goods from the present are compared with goods from the past. This includes hedonic adjustments and “reweighing” as well as using chained measures of inflation. As with many economic numbers, inflation numbers are often seasonally adjusted in order to differentiate expected cyclical cost increases, versus changes in the economy. Inflation numbers are averaged or otherwise subjected to statistical techniques in order to remove statistical noise and volatility of individual prices. Finally, when looking at inflation, economic institutions sometimes only look at subsets or special indices. One common set is inflation excluding food and energy, which is often called “core inflation”.
Excellent cut and paste from Wikipedia. And it is accurate.

Now the Bonus question is, when did the WH change the quantitative measuring and who at the Wall Street Journal caught the change and the WH had to own up to "substantive adjustments in the indexing"?

Hint: There was an election year involved.

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post #386 of 437 (permalink) Old 04-01-2008, 10:35 PM
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If they have to qualify maybe they should come to Illinois and see all the "poor" people on "food stamps" and how "they" cheat the system. A good number of "them" eat, dress, and drive better than I. Maybe I should go and "qualify" too!!

Waayyyyyyyyy to many of "them" cheat the system and we all pay for that bullshit. I say get rid of the system and expand the soup kitchens, bet most of them would then get a job a participate in society.

Whats even more funny over here is when one of "them" is robbed or residence burglured, they are missing PS3s 100's of cd and dvds.....yup there be alot of honest poor folk out there.

The system is broken and is not worth shit.
It is harder to cheat with the debit cards as the cards don't ring up non-approved items [like tobacco products]. I am sure there are folks cheating the system, always will be.

As for soup kitchens, well, food banks are the 21st Century equivalent and they are running full tilt, unable to keep up with demand. And most of the folks at the food bank are even more strict in "qualifying" the client than the State is.

As for the hundreds of CD's, I have a friend who is an insurance adjuster. She tells me that it is amazing how many folks, rich or poor seem to have boxes full of fur coats and jewelery in the trunk of their car or in a closet when that part of the house catches fire.

So we don't know if they bought the CD's and DVDs or were given them by family/friends or had them when times were better. Or they never existed.

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post #387 of 437 (permalink) Old 04-01-2008, 10:39 PM
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Excellent cut and paste from Wikipedia. And it is accurate.

Now the Bonus question is, when did the WH change the quantitative measuring and who at the Wall Street Journal caught the change and the WH had to own up to "substantive adjustments in the indexing"?

Hint: There was an election year involved.

Bear, you are an unfair bully asking the Jay such taxing questions so close to bed time. He could be up all night searching the net for the answers to your tough questions.......................or he may just scratch his ass and go to bed, safe and secure in his own little world oblivious to any human lower on the food chain than he.
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post #388 of 437 (permalink) Old 04-01-2008, 10:39 PM
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It is harder to cheat with the debit cards as the cards don't ring up non-approved items [like tobacco products]. I am sure there are folks cheating the system, always will be.

As for soup kitchens, well, food banks are the 21st Century equivalent and they are running full tilt, unable to keep up with demand. And most of the folks at the food bank are even more strict in "qualifying" the client than the State is.

As for the hundreds of CD's, I have a friend who is an insurance adjuster. She tells me that it is amazing how many folks, rich or poor seem to have boxes full of fur coats and jewelery in the trunk of their car or in a closet when that part of the house catches fire.

So we don't know if they bought the CD's and DVDs or were given them by family/friends or had them when times were better. Or they never existed.
Very true, however most of these people don't have insurance(at least here in my area) so there is no tangible reason for them to claim something they did not already own.

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post #389 of 437 (permalink) Old 04-01-2008, 10:47 PM
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Very true, however most of these people don't have insurance(at least here in my area) so there is no tangible reason for them to claim something they did not already own.
Good point.

You know, back in "the day" every college kid had 2000 records and no real job. I never figured that out either.

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post #390 of 437 (permalink) Old 04-02-2008, 02:26 AM
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WTH it's time for a night cap. I'm with clk on this.
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