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post #1 of 22 (permalink) Old 03-05-2008, 07:15 PM Thread Starter
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Election summary AP/FoxNews 3/5/08

Texas Caucuses take wind out of Clinton Victories


Late-breaking numbers out of Texas’ odd two-phase voting system put an asterisk on Hillary Clinton’s Tuesday night victory speech, showing gains made by Barack Obama in the delegate grab race had all but numerically canceled out her big win in Ohio.

Although Clinton got a major boost in morale by winning more raw votes than Obama in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island (she lost to Obama in Vermont), an Associated Press count of the delegates shows Clinton only reduced her opponent’s lead in delegates by 12.

In the overall race for the nomination, Obama had 1,567 delegates, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates. Clinton had 1,462. It takes 2,025 delegates to secure the Democratic nomination.

For the night, Clinton won at least 185 delegates and Obama won at least 173.

Clinton’s victory in Ohio won her only 9 more delegates than Obama, with two delegates still to be awarded. In Texas, Clinton won four more delegates than Obama in the primary. But Obama trimmed Clinton’s lead to a single Texas delegate in the party caucuses. Ten delegates are still to be awarded in the caucuses.

The candidates vied for 370 delegates in four states: Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. But the Democrats’ system of awarding delegates proportionally made it hard for either candidate to post big gains.

Also, Texas had a two-step system, with about two-thirds of its delegates awarded in a primary, and the rest in party caucuses.

Clinton is pointing to Ohio as her biggest win from Tuesday, where she beat Obama 54-44 percent. She won the Texas vote by a slimmer 51-47 margin. Clinton won Rhode Island 58-40 percent, but Obama took Vermont by an even wider margin, 60 percent to Clinton’s 38 percent.

The result is that all eyes next focus on Saturday’s contest in Wyoming and other states holding contests well into June.

Wyoming has long been off the Democrats’ radar. In 2004, the state favored George Bush over John Kerry by more than 2-to-1. Only 70,000 Wyoming Democrats cast ballots in that general election, and this year it yields a scant 12 pledged delegates. Contrast that with Tuesday’s Western state vote in Texas, where about 2.8 million Democrats cast ballots in a battle for 193 pledged delegates.

But this year, every delegate is being fought over, grabbed at and wooed, even in down-ballot states such as Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina and Montana. The biggest delegate prize of the remaining 12 nomination contests is seven weeks away, on April 22, when 158 pledged delegates are up for grabs in Pennsylvania.

Obama still maintains a numeric lead in the delegate count, making it nearly a statistical impossibility for Clinton to make an outright win before the August Democratic convention. Only 611 pledged delegates are still up for grabs.

Both Clinton and Obama were bracing themselves for a renewed fight on Wednesday.

“What’s happening in this election is that people are starting to ask themselves, you know, the questions that’ll be asked during the general election,” Clinton said, speaking with FOX News.

She added: “I think every election’s a confluence of events. You know, that’s why they’re not static. That’s why this process should go on over a period of time because, you know, new information comes out. People begin to look at the candidates differently. They ask themselves, you know, the questions about who can really be the best nominee, who can win the nomination.”

Obama, also speaking with FOX News, predicted success.

“The bottom line … is we come out of the evening with essentially the same leads in delegates as we had going in and so, we still feel very confident that — we’re going to be going to Wyoming and Mississippi this week; we think we’ll do well there. And on to Pennsylvania, North Carolina and other states after that. … We feel we’re in a very strong position to end up getting the nomination.”

But with few predictions of this race still standing, the Super Tuesday II developments could mean any number of things.

One scenario could provide a strengthened bid for Republican John McCain, who could benefit from a protracted battle between Clinton and Obama. But the reverse could be true, too, as he drops from the news headlines and the Democrats work out their weaknesses before facing the Republican machine heading into November.

Another scenario could mean a bitter end-run at the August Democratic convention. Clinton’s camp is resolute in continuing the fight, and while she still trails in the race for convention delegates, she could make a last-minute grab for the nomination on the convention floor — if it gets that far.She and some of her top surrogates — including former President Bill Clinton and daughter, Chelsea — have been placing personal calls to maintain support among the so-called superdelegates, who aren’t bound to their state nomination contests.

But at the same time, Obama has laid the groundwork to fend off such an onslaught and is said to have a few of the superdelegates quietly on his side, at the ready to parry Clinton’s attempts to play the numbers.

For now, the contest moves on.

After Saturday’s face-off in Wyoming, next Tuesday, Mississippi Democrats head to the polls. After a voting lull, it picks up again in The Keystone State in late April and continues on in May with contests in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon. The June contests are in Montana and South Dakota. Democrats also have yet to vote in Guam and Puerto Rico.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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post #2 of 22 (permalink) Old 03-05-2008, 07:22 PM
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I think the relevance here lies in the net gain in committed delegates that Barak earned despite the fact that Hillary won the popular vote in 3 out of the 4 state primaries. In my humble opinion, he looks unstoppable. Is he the best chance the Democrats have in regaining the White House? That's debatable, but we'll see who the candidate is by convention time.

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post #3 of 22 (permalink) Old 03-06-2008, 08:12 AM
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I read somewhere that the "math" on this shows she would have to 60/40 run the tables in every remaining primary to pull even. That would take a tremendous amount of negative campaigning which would, in effect be long term counterproductive.

Either candidate should be able to beat McCain. He is tied at the neck to Bush's Iraq strategy and he is avoiding talking about the economy like the plague and there will be minimal confrontational conversation about immigration as both sides pretty much agree.

So once the Democrats get their ducks in a row, McCain may as well be wearing a FlavoFlav diamond encrusted six inch W necklace around his neck. Travelgate and Whitewater are ancient history. Iraq and the Recession are NOW.

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post #4 of 22 (permalink) Old 03-06-2008, 08:23 AM
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Does anyone think she can win without him being on the ticket as well? I do not but I do believe he could without her, at least I would hope so........
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post #5 of 22 (permalink) Old 03-06-2008, 08:41 AM
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Does anyone think she can win without him being on the ticket as well? I do not but I do believe he could without her, at least I would hope so........
Right now, with the economy in the dumper and not looking to move out in the next six months I think about any Democrat can win. That particular PAIR would be better but there are other pairings that could work also. She has baggage that is significant but the Economy and Iraq are hard mountains for McCain to climb. And he doesn't have the entire Republican base to work with.

Listening to his speech Tuesday night, he has already repositioned himself on Iraq, trying to distance himself from the Bush position and his previous positions. That will be shown as a flip flop. He also has Keating to deal with and the cadre of lobbyists who are running his campaign which keeps Keating much closer to the forefront than it needed to be.

While McCain can go to Texas and Arizona and even SoCal and talk about the wonders of NAFTA and free trade when he takes that to Ohio and Illinois and Michigan and Pennsylvania and New York who have all lost jobs due to NAFTA imbalances he is going to show the issues of the failed economic policies that are in play. On Tuesday he talked about freeing up business from the shackles of Regulation at the same time that Financial Sector is failing due to lack of Regulation. Someone is out of touch. As was the case in 1992, "It is the Economy, Stupid"

The Clinton Campaign Machine is a monster. If the last four months have shown anything it is that. And if they run this thing to the convention we will see just how tenacious it actually is. I would hope it tidies up before then.

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post #6 of 22 (permalink) Old 03-06-2008, 08:50 AM
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^^^^Bear You know as well as I do Obama would have to rape a woman on stage to lose this thing now. There is no way in hell she can win 60% of the total votes cast between now and the convention. She will run this thing to the convention and as well run the whole thing in to the ground to seat Michigan and Florida. Unfortunately this thing is going to get uglier not tidier................
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post #7 of 22 (permalink) Old 03-06-2008, 09:15 AM
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Hillary’s New Math Problem...............

Hillary’s New Math Problem

Tuesday's big wins? The delegate calculus just got worse.

Hillary Clinton won big victories Tuesday night in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. But she's now even further behind in the race for the Democratic nomination. How could that be? Math. It's relentless.

To beat Barack Obama among pledged delegates, Clinton now needs even bigger margins in the 12 remaining primaries than she needed when I ran the numbers on Monday—an average of 23 points, which is more than double what she received in Ohio.

Superdelegates won't help Clinton if she cannot erase Obama's lead among pledged delegates, which now stands at roughly 134. Caucus results from Texas aren't complete, but Clinton will probably net about 10 delegates out of March 4. That's 10 down, 134 to go. Good luck.

I've asked several prominent uncommitted superdelegates if there's any chance they would reverse the will of Democratic voters. They all say no. It would shatter young people and destroy the party.

Clinton's only hope lies in the popular vote—a yardstick on which she now trails Obama by about 600,000 votes. Should she end the primary season in June with a lead in popular votes, she could get a hearing from uncommitted superdelegates for all the other arguments that she would make a stronger nominee (wins the big states, etc.). If she loses both the pledged delegate count and the popular vote, no argument will cause the superdelegates to disenfranchise millions of Democratic voters. It will be over.

Projecting popular votes precisely is impossible because there's no way to calculate turnout. But Clinton would likely need do-overs in Michigan and Florida (whose January primaries didn't count because they broke Democratic Party rules). But even this probably wouldn't give her the necessary popular-vote margins.

Remember, Obama's name wasn't even on the Michigan ballot when voters there went to the polls. Even if he's trounced there (and Michigan, won by Jesse Jackson in 1988, has a large African-American vote in its primary), Obama would still win hundreds of thousands of popular votes. This is also an argument for why Obama may end up preferring a primary to a caucus in Michigan. (Obama has done better in caucuses).

Florida, with its heavy population of elderly and Jewish voters, might be a better place for Clinton to close the popular vote gap. But even if you assume she does 5 points better than her double-digit win there in the meaningless February primary (where no one campaigned), she would still fall short.

I'm no good at math, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator, I've once again scoped out the rest of the primaries. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week. That's 12 victories in a row, bigger in total than Obama's run of 11 straight. And this time I've assigned her even larger margins than I did before in Wyoming, North Carolina, Indiana and Kentucky.

So here we go again:

Let's assume that on Saturday in Wyoming, Clinton's March 4 momentum gives her an Ohio-style 10-point win, confounding every expectation. Next Tuesday in Mississippi, where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary, she shocks the political world by again winning 55-45.

Then on April 22, the big one—Pennsylvania—and it's a Clinton blowout: 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam's two delegates on May 3 and Indiana's proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6. The Hoosiers go for Clinton 55-45 and the same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state. Enough blacks desert Obama to give North Carolina to Hillary in another big win, 55-45, netting her seven more delegates.

May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. Another 60-40 landslide on May 20 in Kentucky nets her 11 more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Ooops! He loses there 52-48. Clinton wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3 and the scheduled primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Clinton pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates.

Given that I've put not a thumb but my whole fist on the scale, this fanciful calculation gives Hillary the lead, right? Actually, it makes the score 1,625 to 1,584 for Obama. A margin of 39 pledged delegates may not seem like much, but remember, the chances of Obama losing state after state by 20-point margins are slim to none.

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. What happens then? Will Democrats come together before the Denver Convention opens in late August?

We know that Clinton is unlikely to quit. This will leave it up to the superdelegates to figure out how to settle on a nominee. With 205 already committed to Obama, he would need another 200 uncommitted superdelegates to get to the magic number of 2025 delegates needed to nominate. But that's only under my crazy pro-Hillary projections. More likely, Obama would need about 50-100 of the approximately 500 uncommitted superdelegates, which shouldn't be too difficult.

But let's say all the weeks of negative feeling have taken a toll. Let's say that Clinton supporters are feeling embittered and inclined to sit on their hands. It's not too hard to imagine prominent superdelegates asking Obama to consider putting Hillary on the ticket.

This might be the wrong move for him. A national-security choice like Sen. Jim Webb, former senator Sam Nunn or retired general Anthony Zinni could make more sense. But if Obama did ask Clinton, don't assume she would say no just because she has, well, already served as de facto vice president for eight years under her husband. (Sorry, Al).

In fact, she would probably say yes. When there's a good chance to win, almost no one has ever said no. (Colin Powell is the exception). In 1960, when the vice presidency was worth a lot less, Senate Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson gave up his powerful position to run with John F. Kennedy.

How about Clinton-Obama? Nope. The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how big March 4 was for them. How close the race is. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Hillary’s New Math Problem | Newsweek Voices - Jonathan Alter | Newsweek.com
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post #8 of 22 (permalink) Old 03-06-2008, 10:10 AM Thread Starter
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As I understand it, neither Obama or Clinton can win before the convention based on primaries alone. So the superdelegates will determine the outcome. But what is the effect of re-running Florida and Michigan?

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post #9 of 22 (permalink) Old 03-06-2008, 10:18 AM
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As I understand it, neither Obama or Clinton can win before the convention based on primaries alone. So the superdelegates will determine the outcome. But what is the effect of re-running Florida and Michigan?

Michigan = 156 delegates and Florida = 210 delegates

Election Guide 2008 - Presidential Election - Politics
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post #10 of 22 (permalink) Old 03-06-2008, 10:25 AM Thread Starter
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Michigan = 156 delegates and Florida = 210 delegates

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Thanks. So how would that affect the pledged delegate count? Without doing the math, it seems that it's still out of reach for either of them, even if they won all the FLA and MI delegates. Right?

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