There may be good news on the economy, the stock market and housing... - Page 6 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #51 of 69 (permalink) Old 03-04-2008, 06:49 PM Thread Starter
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Admit it, Jay, you are trying to fool yourself for no good reason - as usual!
I know nothing...



I admit nothing...

Don't believe everything you think
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post #52 of 69 (permalink) Old 03-05-2008, 03:22 AM
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^^^^Shit, Hillary must have won OH & TX, we finally agree on something...............
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post #53 of 69 (permalink) Old 03-05-2008, 11:35 AM
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Grim job market deals economy another blow

Grim job market deals economy another blow
By Burton Frierson
2 hours, 7 minutes ago


The weakening job market dealt another blow to the struggling economy on Wednesday, while more bad news emerged from the inflation front.

U.S. private employment fell unexpectedly for the first time in nearly five years in February, according to a private report that does not bode well for the government's key U.S. payrolls release on Friday.

Economic optimists may take heart from separate report showing planned layoffs by U.S. companies fell in February, but even that data suggested that the housing-led economic slowdown was spreading to other sectors.

"The headline (ADP) number showed a decline of 23,000, which was the first decline in this series since the economy was coming out of the last recession so it is notable," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers in St. Louis, Missouri, a joint developer of the ADP report.

This left investors braced for Friday's monthly jobs data. Analysts expect that to show an increase of 25,000 in February non-farm payrolls but their estimates range widely from a drop of 110,000 to a rise of 100,000, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

"The ADB report has given us a heads up that the jobs report on Friday could be worse than expected. All the other jobs indicators are also consistent with a softening U.S. labor market, "said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.

U.S. productivity was slightly better than earlier estimated in the fourth quarter but labor costs were also considerably higher, presenting an inflation dilemma for the Federal Reserve, which has cut interest rates aggressively to shore up the economy.

EAGER TO SEE

After last month's government labor market report showed U.S. payrolls shrank in January for the first time in nearly 4-1/2 years, economists will be eager to see if this is replicated in February.

The fall of 23,000 private sector jobs compares with a downwardly revised 119,000 jobs added in January, according to the report by ADP Employer Services.

February's fall was the first monthly contraction in private employment since June 2003 and the biggest drop since April 2003, according to ADP data.

The ADP report was expected to show 20,000 new private-sector jobs in February, according to the median of estimates from 30 economists surveyed by Reuters.

U.S. fourth-quarter non-farm productivity growth was revised up to 1.9 percent from the previous 1.8 percent.

However, non-farm unit labor costs were also revised up, to 2.6 percent from 2.1 percent.

Planned layoffs by U.S. companies fell by 14.2 percent in February compared with the same month a year ago, according to a report that might mitigate worries ahead of Friday's payrolls report.

Employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. also said on Wednesday that planned layoffs were down 3.9 percent in February from January.

Planned job cuts announced by U.S. employers totaled 72,091 in February, a drop from 74,986 in January and an even steeper slide from 84,014 from February 2007.

"While job cuts were down slightly, increased layoffs by government agencies and retailers provided further evidence that the impact of the housing slump is spreading beyond the housing and financial sectors," the Challenger report said.

U.S. stocks were up slightly in early trade.

U.S. government bonds, which usually benefit from signs of economic weakness, were up on the day, while the dollar eased slightly.

(Reporting by Burton Frierson; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Copyright © 2008 Reuters Limited.
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post #54 of 69 (permalink) Old 03-05-2008, 12:04 PM Thread Starter
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The more these "blows" keep coming, the better I feel that we are nearing a botton. In fact, employment is usually the last indicator to fall before a recovery begins. Let us hope!

Don't believe everything you think
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post #55 of 69 (permalink) Old 03-05-2008, 01:10 PM
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Relative to the total of loan amounts outstanding, what you posted does not even compute. Admit it, you are just trying to scare people for no good reason--as usual!
The $190Billion in writeoffs only accounts for the dead loans for the past two quarters as stated in the original chart and the associated link.

If you want to get into a comparison of total number of loans written, number that are 100% A+, percentage in arrears, percentage in default, percentage in foreclosure, percentage in writeoff, that would be a different [and even scarier] progressive chart. It would also require going back to mid 2006 to get a flow pattern.

We can, however extrapolate from the ARM adjustment chart [noting the peak is just now arriving] the potential for future arrears >>>foreclosures based on past performance. If we do that projection then the current $190Billion will be about 20-25% of the total writeoffs for these banks.

I'm not trying to scare anyone. I am simply putting out extended data and its sources and backing them up with facts and various expert's correlated research that is neither sponsored nor vested. It is up to folks to draw their own conclusions as to whether to be fearful of an upcoming, extended recession or to assume this is near a bottom now.

McBear,
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Being smart is knowing the difference, in a sticky situation between a well delivered anecdote and a well delivered antidote - bear.
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post #56 of 69 (permalink) Old 03-05-2008, 01:32 PM Thread Starter
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The $190Billion in writeoffs only accounts for the dead loans for the past two quarters as stated in the original chart and the associated link.

If you want to get into a comparison of total number of loans written, number that are 100% A+, percentage in arrears, percentage in default, percentage in foreclosure, percentage in writeoff, that would be a different [and even scarier] progressive chart. It would also require going back to mid 2006 to get a flow pattern.

We can, however extrapolate from the ARM adjustment chart [noting the peak is just now arriving] the potential for future arrears >>>foreclosures based on past performance. If we do that projection then the current $190Billion will be about 20-25% of the total writeoffs for these banks.

I'm not trying to scare anyone. I am simply putting out extended data and its sources and backing them up with facts and various expert's correlated research that is neither sponsored nor vested. It is up to folks to draw their own conclusions as to whether to be fearful of an upcoming, extended recession or to assume this is near a bottom now.
You keep "extrapolating" like that and you're going to get a hernia...

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post #57 of 69 (permalink) Old 04-04-2008, 08:45 AM
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Here is another blow to you

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post #58 of 69 (permalink) Old 04-04-2008, 09:22 AM Thread Starter
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It's always darkest before the dawn...

Don't believe everything you think
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post #59 of 69 (permalink) Old 04-04-2008, 09:30 AM
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It's always darkest before the dawn...

As usual Jay, you are full of shit, can't you get any of it right...........

Darkest before the dawn

It’s an old adage that “It’s always darkest before the dawn.” It’s something that people have relied on as an axiom for years and years and years and years. Well, let me tell you, it’s not correct. But read on, dear reader, and let me explain why this old proverb is incorrect -- and how it matters to you and your troubles, whatever they may be.

I've been up a lot before sunrise in my life. I used to take a lot of nature photographs, and in order to photograph the sunrise, you've got to get up while it's still night.

And you know what I learned? In nature, it’s not always darkest before the dawn. The truth is, there’s usually quite a bit of light out before the actual sunrise – and even if we count “dawn” as the first little bit of light, it’s still not necessarily darker then than any other time during the night. Most of the time, the darkest time of the night is whenever the moon's not out.

So, let me rephrase this to something more accurate: “It’s always darkest when it’s dark.”

O.K. – I know that sounds idiotic. You're saying to yourself "Of course it's always darkest when it's dark."

What's more, although this statement is true, it probably doesn’t make a whole lot of difference to you. If you’re looking for an axiom to help you during life’s trials, “It’s always darkest when it’s dark” doesn’t quite cut it, while "It's always darkest before the dawn," however much of a lie it might be, sounds more hopeful.

But you know, in nature, it’s always darkest when the moon isn’t out – or when the clouds obscure the moon and the stars – or in the middle of a fog bank. In other words, it's darkest when the light isn't in your life.

It's like the darkness when you’re in an unfamiliar hotel room and your spouse turns the lights out – or when you wander in during the first few moments of a motion picture and accidentally sit on someone’s lap.

In other words, it’s dark when it’s dark, and it’s light when it’s light, and anytime else is a mix of dark and light, largely depending on how we contrast how dark is is, and how dark it was where we just came from.

Confused? Probably.

Anyway, how this all works – and it does work – is that if you’re depressed, going through a difficult time, or trying to fight your way up from a significant challenge – all times when “It’s always darkest before the dawn” is generally quoted by well-meaning people who haven’t ever been up before dawn, or been significantly depressed, for that matter – then this platitude tends to confuse the real issue: that in order to make it less dark, you’ve got to let some light in. In other words, you don't have to sit around, waiting for the dawn -- you invite the light into your life, and let the "dawn" of a new life light up your life and your mood.

In nature, it doesn't matter if it’s the stars or the moon or the lights from a passing flying saucer – if you want light, you need light. Dawn will do – and a full-fledged sunrise is even better. There is no feeling quite like that of feelling the warmth of the sunrise on your face, when you've been lost in a dark, cold twilight in life.

In our lives, so many times the discouraged and depressed – and I’ve been one of those people altogether too many times in the past – wait around for the dawn, rather than finding some kind of light switch to turn on instead.

So here’s Gibson’s second axiom of this week: If you want it to be less dark -- in other words, if you want to seek the dawn -- look for some light.

Depressed? Hey – everyone is depressed some times in their lives. Did you know that Churchill fought depression? Did you know that Lincoln was described as “melancholy?” Did you know that many of the other great people who have graced life’s highway with their names and deeds have fought depression, some of them for much of their lives? We all have problems! What you need to do is to let a little bit of light in your life, and quit sitting there in the dark, waiting for the dawn.

So – how do you make a little bit of light in your life? Learn something new. Help someone old. Challenge your beliefs. Challenge yourself. Change your habits. Change your mind. And if you can do nothing else, ask someone else to lend you a little bit of their light -- ask for their help.

Here’s the second lie about the "dawn axiom:" You know when you walk into that dark movie theater, it seems extremely dark – you stumble around looking for a seat, occasionally annoying other people. But, eventually your eyes get used to it, and you look around you and say to yourself “Hey – where did all these people come from?” Your eyes gradually get used to the dark, and you can see quite well – after a fashion. But if you look further, you’ll find that the people in the theater don’t seem to have any color in their clothes or their faces – they’re all gray, except for the areas where light reflecting off the motion picture screen hits them and illuminates a patch of color here or there.

Still, you can see enough to keep from sitting on the lap of the fat lady in front of you – so you’re all right with it. You could exist there in that room for a while, and be perfectly happy.

Well, here’s the great problem of depression. Depression is like sitting in that movie theater. When you first enter the theater, it’s dark – so dark. But after a while, you can see a little bit. After a while, you can exist there quite comfortably for a while. But that life in the theater is colorless. There’s not enough light to make your life colorful and worth living. Eventually, of course, you figure that out – but altogether too many of us sit there, gazing around, and saying “Hey – I’m just waiting for them to turn the lights on so I can find my way to the exit.”

When we get melancholy, many of us get used to this kind of colorless life -- and we forget what it was like to have a colorful life.

Here’s the key to this story: You’ve got to seek out the light. You have to bring it into your life. For the interim, you can ask for some light from others -- friends, family, or books, for example -- to help you start to find your way out of the dark. Maybe it's something chemical -- you might have to look at taking an antidepressent for a while. There's no shame in that.

Eventually, though, in order to drive the darkness completely out of your life, you have to actively make light – like Lincoln made light, like Churchill made light, like Jefferson made light – you’ve got to actively work to add a little bit of light to the world, and in doing so, bring light to yourself.

Sure, it’s dark before the dawn – but you can always turn on the lights.
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post #60 of 69 (permalink) Old 04-04-2008, 10:48 AM
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It's always darkest before the dawn...
Tell that to those who lost their jobs. Better yet, how about a face-to-face conversation with them and see how they welcome your comment.

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