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post #31 of 48 (permalink) Old 02-27-2008, 06:52 PM
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Please read 3.1. under the Answer on this link: A Beginner's Guide to Economic Indicators

And have you noticed that the Dow is up over 450 points in the last four trading sessions? The stock market IS the primary Leading Economic Indicator! Anyone who has even a "Biginner's" understanding of our economic system knows this--but I guess I shouldn't be surprised that you do not...
Um, sorry J, but the Conference Board is the group that defines the Economic Indicators for the US Government and the Financial Sector. About.com, while nice, and informative, is NOT the answer.

The Dow is Up, the Dow is Down, it is much churn. Do your research, note that the S&P is used in the LEI for a reason. The link for the Conference Board should provide all your answers although they use real economic terms instead of words like "Biginner's" whatever that is.

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post #32 of 48 (permalink) Old 02-27-2008, 07:01 PM
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Please read 3.1. under the Answer on this link: A Beginner's Guide to Economic Indicators

And have you noticed that the Dow is up over 450 points in the last four trading sessions? The stock market IS the primary Leading Economic Indicator! Anyone who has even a "Biginner's" understanding of our economic system knows this--but I guess I shouldn't be surprised that you do not...
I figured out the confusion.

The About.Com article is simply a description of indicators of economic conditions where some are leading, some are trailing [lagging], etc.

When you said earlier that the Stock Market was the Primary Leading Economic Indicator, at that point you placed it in a very specific list of the 10 items that the FED and the financial sector use to gauge the economy the Leading Economic Indicators [LEI] which was developed by the Conference Board and used by everyone as the Gold Standard for measurement of the economy's health. Placing the "stock market" in that list is incorrect and that is what I was pointing out.

Now, if you are just saying that the stock market is one of a hundred or so indicators that folks use when they are making anecdotal assessments of the economy, you are correct, as is the about.com article.

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post #33 of 48 (permalink) Old 02-27-2008, 07:15 PM
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I figured out the confusion.

The About.Com article is simply a description of indicators of economic conditions where some are leading, some are trailing [lagging], etc.

When you said earlier that the Stock Market was the Primary Leading Economic Indicator, at that point you placed it in a very specific list of the 10 items that the FED and the financial sector use to gauge the economy the Leading Economic Indicators [LEI] which was developed by the Conference Board and used by everyone as the Gold Standard for measurement of the economy's health. Placing the "stock market" in that list is incorrect and that is what I was pointing out.

Now, if you are just saying that the stock market is one of a hundred or so indicators that folks use when they are making anecdotal assessments of the economy, you are correct, as is the about.com article.
No bear! What I said is exactly what I meant, and exactly what every economic noob knows to be the truth. THE STOCK MARKET IS THE PRIMARY LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: Please re-read the following again and let it sink in!

Timing

Economic Indicators can be leading, lagging, or coincident which indicates the timing of their changes relative to how the economy as a whole changes.
  1. Leading: Leading economic indicators are indicators which change before the economy changes. Stock market returns are a leading indicator, as the stock market usually begins to decline before the economy declines and they improve before the economy begins to pull out of a recession.

Don't believe everything you think
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post #34 of 48 (permalink) Old 02-27-2008, 09:42 PM
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Re: Mortgages

The clever have fleeced the unwary since time immemorial.

Sure, it's not 'right'... but it's universal.

If we decide to subsidize the unwary, we're in effect subsidizing the fleecing. Imagine the effects.

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post #35 of 48 (permalink) Old 02-27-2008, 09:48 PM
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^^^^^^Look at all those George W Bush supporters!!!

lol

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post #36 of 48 (permalink) Old 02-27-2008, 09:51 PM
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post #37 of 48 (permalink) Old 02-27-2008, 10:34 PM Thread Starter
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post #38 of 48 (permalink) Old 02-28-2008, 11:59 AM
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No bear! What I said is exactly what I meant, and exactly what every economic noob knows to be the truth. THE STOCK MARKET IS THE PRIMARY LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR: Please re-read the following again and let it sink in!
Then you need drop everything and call the FED, BLS, the White House, Congress, Commerce, Treasury, The Purchasing Manager's Board and every other Economic institution and tell them that they are all doing it wrong. You need to tell them that all that data they collect is just a waste of time that all they have to watch is the churn of the Dow.

I'm sure they will appreciate your input. Make sure to give them the about.com link. They can use it to revise all their procedure and policy guides.

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post #39 of 48 (permalink) Old 02-28-2008, 12:58 PM
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Then you need drop everything and call the FED, BLS, the White House, Congress, Commerce, Treasury, The Purchasing Manager's Board and every other Economic institution and tell them that they are all doing it wrong. You need to tell them that all that data they collect is just a waste of time that all they have to watch is the churn of the Dow.

I'm sure they will appreciate your input. Make sure to give them the about.com link. They can use it to revise all their procedure and policy guides.
Look bear: I know the difference between the LEI and indicator's that portend the future direction of the economy. You apparently do not, but just let me say for the last time, Eeconomic Indicators can be leading, lagging, or coincident which indicates the timing of their changes relative to how the economy as a whole changes.

Are you having a brain fart or what?

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post #40 of 48 (permalink) Old 02-28-2008, 01:09 PM
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Look bear: I know the difference between the LEI and indicator's that portend the future direction of the economy. You apparently do not, but just let me say for the last time, Eeconomic Indicators can be leading, lagging, or coincident which indicates the timing of their changes relative to how the economy as a whole changes.

Are you having a brain fart or what?
Re-read post 32. It explains.

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