US Economic Outlook from the Financial Times 02.19.08 - Page 2 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #11 of 83 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 11:52 AM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Multipurpose View Post
This two-year-old article is going to have people jumping out of their
basement windows, one of these days.
You might want to try reading ALL the words. The article is from Feb 19, 2008.

If references articles from a three year period.

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post #12 of 83 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 12:04 PM Thread Starter
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I saw that nut-job's article yesterday and just knew that you would post it here as justification for your warped view of the world. I saw Roubini recently on Larry Kudlow's CNBC show and thought I'd share that too...
That is a good clip of Roubini on Kudlow [Kudlow asking macro questions and popping up a micro number as contra-evidence - this looked way too familiar]

It would be interesting to parallel Kudlow's last three years perceptions of what the Economy has been/is looking like with Roubini's. Having watched Kudlow often on his show, I can assure you that his powers of prognostication will show to fall a bit flat.

Of course calling one of the preeminent Economists on the planet a nutjob because he doesn't fit your rose colored paradigm is a bit short sighted. You could learn much from Roubini.

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post #13 of 83 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
That is a good clip of Roubini on Kudlow [Kudlow asking macro questions and popping up a micro number as contra-evidence - this looked way too familiar]

It would be interesting to parallel Kudlow's last three years perceptions of what the Economy has been/is looking like with Roubini's. Having watched Kudlow often on his show, I can assure you that his powers of prognostication will show to fall a bit flat.

Of course calling one of the preeminent Economists on the planet a nutjob because he doesn't fit your rose colored paradigm is a bit short sighted. You could learn much from Roubini.
Interesting reply...

First, you are dead wrong about Larry Kudlow. He is one of the sharpest tools in the shed and highly respected in economic circles around the world. His calls have been consistently on the mark--unlike those of Roubini. Kudlow is much more respected and much better-known in economic circles than is Roubini's name. The only thing Roubini is well-known for is bashing the US economy, and in the most outlandish terms! He likes to yell "FIRE" in crowded theaters. A lot like you, my friend!

Second, your reply completely ignores the enlightened comments of Robert Stein, First Trust Senior Economist, who had a lot more honest and accurate things to say about our economy than did Roubini. You didn't even acknowledge his comments, IMO, because he was right-on and made Roubini look like a fool! I am stating to call your verbal slights-of-hand "bearisms." They tend to make you look bear-naked when it comes to arguments.

Don't believe everything you think
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post #14 of 83 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 12:40 PM Thread Starter
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Interesting reply...

First, you are dead wrong about Larry Kudlow. He is one of the sharpest tools in the shed and highly respected in economic circles around the world. His calls have been consistently on the mark--unlike those of Roubini. Kudlow is much more respected and much better-known in economic circles than is Roubini's name. The only thing Roubini is well-known for is bashing the US economy, and in the most outlandish terms! He likes to yell "FIRE" in crowded theaters. A lot like you, my friend!

Second, your reply completely ignores the enlightened comments of Robert Stein, First Trust Senior Economist, who had a lot more honest and accurate things to say about our economy than did Roubini. You didn't even acknowledge his comments, IMO, because he was right-on and made Roubini look like a fool! I am stating to call your verbal slights-of-hand "bearisms." They tend to make you look bear-naked when it comes to arguments.
I know Kudlow is good. But as I have watched him for the past several years I note that he pretty much missed the housing crisis, credit crisis, Financial Sector crunch and current economic issues until most of the rest of the talking heads were on the bandwagon. I do watch TV too, J, so I know what the man has been saying for the past 3 years and he has been behind the curve on this. Kudlow is VERY GOOD at stock market issues, not so good at Macro Economic issues. Two different animals.

I didn't comment on Stein because, as I pointed out prior, Kudlow drew a Micro/Macro debate which was less than useful. It would have been helpful if they had both been talking about the same thing.

By the way, I am still waiting on all those examples from my posts of where you keep suggesting I have been wrong on this past two years economics trending. I know that just slipped your mind.

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post #15 of 83 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 12:59 PM
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I know Kudlow is good. But as I have watched him for the past several years I note that he pretty much missed the housing crisis, credit crisis, Financial Sector crunch and current economic issues until most of the rest of the talking heads were on the bandwagon. I do watch TV too, J, so I know what the man has been saying for the past 3 years and he has been behind the curve on this. Kudlow is VERY GOOD at stock market issues, not so good at Macro Economic issues. Two different animals.

I didn't comment on Stein because, as I pointed out prior, Kudlow drew a Micro/Macro debate which was less than useful. It would have been helpful if they had both been talking about the same thing.

By the way, I am still waiting on all those examples from my posts of where you keep suggesting I have been wrong on this past two years economics trending. I know that just slipped your mind.
I disagree that Kudlow missed the bad news. He just has a way of looking at it from a more positive POV than do you and Roubini. And in some ways, the vast majority of economic experts, like Kudlow, did not see the perfect storm of financial problems that led to the credit and housing problems. Roubini, like you, has been shouting "FIRE" for as long as I can remember. When someone takes a persistently negative view of the world for a long time, they will eventually be right! It is the normal cycle of fiscal and monetary events. I really hate it when a fool yells "the sky is falling" forever and then when it does they go around saying "I told you so, I told you so."

And when did I say I was going to post all those examples of your past mistakes?

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post #16 of 83 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 01:14 PM Thread Starter
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I disagree that Kudlow missed the bad news. He just has a way of looking at it from a more positive POV than do you and Roubini. And in some ways, the vast majority of economic experts, like Kudlow, did not see the perfect storm of financial problems that led to the credit and housing problems. Roubini, like you, has been shouting "FIRE" for as long as I can remember. When someone takes a persistently negative view of the world for a long time, they will eventually be right! It is the normal cycle of fiscal and monetary events. I really hate it when a fool yells "the sky is falling" forever and then when it does they go around saying "I told you so, I told you so."
The only POV that Kudlow has had has been the Republican POV. His resume is straight GOP. That's OK, it's his thing.

As for always being negative, not true. I have never been negative on the GLOBAL Economic condition, the GLOBAL markets or even some of the sectors of the US economy [international sectors like tech]. What I have been banging the drum on has been the various credit issues and their impact on the US Economy. That has been consistent and without error. I have also differentiated between the US and Global economies which you seem to take as "us against them".

And FYI, this economic meltdown is NOT "... the normal cycle of fiscal and monetary events." This is levels beyond that, brought about by poor administrative guidance from Treasury and Commerce, lack of regulation and a Financial Sector that was given the keys to the Ferrari by the "free market" kiddies who failed to understand the ramifications of such actions. We now have a multi Trillion dollar worldwide bailout and taxpayers footing the bill for excess of greed, avarice, hubris and arrogance.

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And when did I say I was going to post all those examples of your past mistakes?
You kept insinuating that they exist. I assume you would want to prove your point.

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post #17 of 83 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 01:39 PM
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The only POV that Kudlow has had has been the Republican POV. His resume is straight GOP. That's OK, it's his thing.

As for always being negative, not true. I have never been negative on the GLOBAL Economic condition, the GLOBAL markets or even some of the sectors of the US economy [international sectors like tech]. What I have been banging the drum on has been the various credit issues and their impact on the US Economy. That has been consistent and without error. I have also differentiated between the US and Global economies which you seem to take as "us against them".

And FYI, this economic meltdown is NOT "... the normal cycle of fiscal and monetary events." This is levels beyond that, brought about by poor administrative guidance from Treasury and Commerce, lack of regulation and a Financial Sector that was given the keys to the Ferrari by the "free market" kiddies who failed to understand the ramifications of such actions. We now have a multi Trillion dollar worldwide bailout and taxpayers footing the bill for excess of greed, avarice, hubris and arrogance.

You kept insinuating that they exist. I assume you would want to prove your point.
Kudlow is a respected Republican and economic expert. But I don't see what that has to do w/ his often taking a positive view, even of negative developments.

I'll admit that you are not ALWAYS negative, just the v-a-s-t majority of the time. You and Roubini remind me of Fred Sanford (Sanford and Son): "This is it! It's the BIG ONE! I know it's the BIG ONE this time!!" You both constantly use terms like "meltdown," "disaster," "time bomb," "housing doom," "mother of all meltdowns," and on and on and on. His predictions, as yours, are frequently "dismissed as the ravings of a conspiracy nut!"

And FWIW: I never said I was going to post all those examples of your past mistakes. I don't think I have to since most others on this board can read as well as I. And can see the fallacy of your rantings for themselves. Besides, as you are well aware, I don't do homework!

Don't believe everything you think

Last edited by Jayhawk; 02-20-2008 at 01:42 PM.
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post #18 of 83 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 02:42 PM
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By the way, this is not "The sky is falling". It is, however "Somebody needs to run down to Home Depot and get a really, REALLY big bucket of spackling."
"mother of all meltdowns" is not "The sky is falling" sensationalism ?
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post #19 of 83 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 03:28 PM Thread Starter
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Kudlow is a respected Republican and economic expert. But I don't see what that has to do w/ his often taking a positive view, even of negative developments.

I'll admit that you are not ALWAYS negative, just the v-a-s-t majority of the time. You and Roubini remind me of Fred Sanford (Sanford and Son): "This is it! It's the BIG ONE! I know it's the BIG ONE this time!!" You both constantly use terms like "meltdown," "disaster," "time bomb," "housing doom," "mother of all meltdowns," and on and on and on. His predictions, as yours, are frequently "dismissed as the ravings of a conspiracy nut!"

And FWIW: I never said I was going to post all those examples of your past mistakes. I don't think I have to since most others on this board can read as well as I.
Thanks for proving my point.

As for "the big one" you didn't know me, or read my posts prior to the past 30 months. I have only been using terms like meltdown and "absolute failure" for the past couple of years. There is a very valid reason for that.

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post #20 of 83 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 03:31 PM Thread Starter
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"mother of all meltdowns" is not "The sky is falling" sensationalism ?
I guess you can kick back and ignore it or prepare for whatever happens. Either way we will see if it is sensationalism or a warning to get folks attention.

Frankly I hope he is dead wrong. I would not, however bet money against him in ANY economic parlor game.

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