Credit Default Swaps - They just might bring down the House of Cards - Page 3 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

View Poll Results: Credit Default Swaps
I understand them fully. Scary huh. 2 20.00%
I have a vague idea what they're talking about 3 30.00%
Can we see some pics of boobs and cars now plz? 6 60.00%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 10. You may not vote on this poll

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post #21 of 54 (permalink) Old 02-17-2008, 07:30 PM Thread Starter
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Fact remains, Jayhawk, that if you have invested consistently with your pronouncements in this forum, you have taken one hell of a hit this past year.
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post #22 of 54 (permalink) Old 02-17-2008, 07:43 PM
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Fact remains, Jayhawk, that if you have invested consistently with your pronouncements in this forum, you have taken one hell of a hit this past year.
That is NOT true. I have invested carefully w/ the help of my investment advisers, and I have not taken a hit! I am actually positive on the year, and I have followed my every recommendation. The pros make all the difference. You should get to know some...

Don't believe everything you think
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post #23 of 54 (permalink) Old 02-17-2008, 07:48 PM Thread Starter
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That is NOT true. I have invested carefully w/ the help of my investment advisers, and I have not taken a hit! I am actually positive on the year, and I have followed my every recommendation. The pros make all the difference. You should get to know some...
Neat. In this case, you took some major short positions, which means you expected the market to fall considerably. Exactly the opposite of what you've been saying. So which is it?

Alas, shooting fish in a barrel loses its appeal after awhile..
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post #24 of 54 (permalink) Old 02-17-2008, 08:00 PM
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Neat. In this case, you took some major short positions, which means you expected the market to fall considerably. Exactly the opposite of what you've been saying. So which is it?

Alas, shooting fish in a barrel loses its appeal after awhile..
I did nothing of the sort. The pros I employ did whatever was necessary to make me profitable! I just watch the returns accumulate.

Don't believe everything you think
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post #25 of 54 (permalink) Old 02-17-2008, 08:06 PM
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And you have been screaming the same Chicken Little BS (Bear Shit) for at least that long w/ absolutely nothing to show for it! Why don't you get a life!!
First, go back to Fall 06 and see what I was posting regarding the US Economy. It has been consistent and just about domino to domino correct.

While you like to belittle it as chicken little, go back and show me where I was incorrect. Please. I await your links that show where I missed this.

And I have a life. I semi retired at 52, only working cherry picked jobs since. We travel 12 weeks a year [though I bet it will be less this year as we square up the house]. I sold my Key Largo apartment after 20 years because I no longer feel good flying long solos in the 182. Life is pretty Fn good.

I am completely closing the shop since I was not able to depend on the guys so I have to find a new part-time gig to keep my brain cooking. And I will finally complete my PhD from the Steinhardt School at NYU in Media that I started back in 1999 when I lived in the city. It is almost piled high enough and dry enough. I will know by 9/08.

So I got a life. Really.

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post #26 of 54 (permalink) Old 02-17-2008, 08:13 PM
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Mcbear, you are too funny. The devil is in the details.
What exactly is the house of cards you refer to ?
OK, tell me what part of the deck you want to understand. It is a big deck with many cards. Do you want to know the parts including the mortgage risk issues, the subprime issues, the housing bubble issues, the CBO portfolios, the 35:1 leveraging of hedge funds and derivatives. Or do you want to go into the consumer credit issues, default rates for credit cards, bankruptcy trends and debt saturation? Or would you want to talk about the subject at hand, the behind the scenes machinations of the financial sector, their unsecured security and failing underwriters OR would you like to talk about the FEDs feeding sugar to diabetics in an effort to stimulate the economy.

Pick a card.

We can start from there.

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post #27 of 54 (permalink) Old 02-17-2008, 08:29 PM
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... the mortgage risk issues, the subprime issues, the housing bubble issues, the CBO portfolios, the 35:1 leveraging of hedge funds and derivatives. .. the consumer credit issues, default rates for credit cards, bankruptcy trends and debt saturation? ...the FEDs feeding sugar to diabetics in an effort to stimulate the economy.
You missed the most important card : employment.
The subprime and housing bubbles already burst but unemployment
remains low. Hedge funds blowups are the rich man's pain but so what if they lose 10M out of 100M.
Bottomline, the fed is going to bail everyone out.
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post #28 of 54 (permalink) Old 02-17-2008, 08:34 PM Thread Starter
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Bottomline, the fed is going to bail everyone out.
Actually no. The Fed is bailing out borrowers and lenders.

Earners and savers, it's punishing.
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post #29 of 54 (permalink) Old 02-17-2008, 08:39 PM
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First, go back to Fall 06 and see what I was posting regarding the US Economy. It has been consistent and just about domino to domino correct.

While you like to belittle it as chicken little, go back and show me where I was incorrect. Please. I await your links that show where I missed this.

And I have a life. I semi retired at 52, only working cherry picked jobs since. We travel 12 weeks a year [though I bet it will be less this year as we square up the house]. I sold my Key Largo apartment after 20 years because I no longer feel good flying long solos in the 182. Life is pretty Fn good.

I am completely closing the shop since I was not able to depend on the guys so I have to find a new part-time gig to keep my brain cooking. And I will finally complete my PhD from the Steinhardt School at NYU in Media that I started back in 1999 when I lived in the city. It is almost piled high enough and dry enough. I will know by 9/08.

So I got a life. Really.

Don't believe everything you think
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post #30 of 54 (permalink) Old 02-17-2008, 09:00 PM
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You missed the most important card : employment.
The subprime and housing bubbles already burst but unemployment
remains low. Hedge funds blowups are the rich man's pain but so what if they lose 10M out of 100M.
Bottomline, the fed is going to bail everyone out.
You might be surprised to see how may mutual funds, retirement funds and institutional funds are intrinsically tied to Hedge Funds. It is well over 2/3.

Housing bubble is still in burst mode. Until housing starts to come up and supplies of houses on the market drop to under 50% of their current levels, this thing is still popping.

Unemployment numbers, as we went over prior show a large gap between the three elements. 1)Number of potential workforce 2)people on unemployment 3)off the books. That second number is growing slightly and the third number is growing quickly.

"Bottomline, the fed is going to bail everyone out". It would be best to rephrase that to be "The Federal Government will increase its National Debt to bail out the Financial Sector, passing the principle and interest on that added debt to the next two or three generations". That covers the tax increase and perpetuation of debt issues in that "bailout".

McBear,
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