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Old 02-01-2008, 02:07 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Anyone can find weak spots; even in a booming economy. As you yourself keep saying there are many sectors and sub-sectors of the economy. You seem to spend all your time searching out those that have any hint of a downturn.
I really like the air.. under your statement.
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Old 02-01-2008, 02:19 PM   #12 (permalink)
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No new jobs last month, but not to worry...

The labor market may be weak, but that doesn't necessarily mean the US economy is in a recession or on the verge of one.

Today's nonfarm payrolls report defied expectations for a modest gain by showing a decline of 17,000 in January – the first decline in 52 months of solid job growth. But the unemployment rate also declined, easing to 4.9% from 5%, despite predictions it would either be unchanged or edge up.

The usually important payroll and jobless data has taken on even more significance because the labor market is considered the most reliable indicator of a recession. In early January, when the government reported that the jobless rate jumped to 5% from 4.7% in December, it set off recession alarms because the rate was more than half a percentage point higher than the low during the expansion phase of the economic cycle.

Labor Market Sending Mixed Signals on Recession - Economy * US * News * Story - MSNBC.com
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Old 02-01-2008, 05:01 PM   #13 (permalink)
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i smelllllllllllllllllll bullshitttttttttttttttttttttttt
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Old 02-01-2008, 08:48 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Jayhawk View Post
The labor market may be weak, but that doesn't necessarily mean the US economy is in a recession or on the verge of one.

Today's nonfarm payrolls report defied expectations for a modest gain by showing a decline of 17,000 in January – the first decline in 52 months of solid job growth. But the unemployment rate also declined, easing to 4.9% from 5%, despite predictions it would either be unchanged or edge up.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics we have a 145,700,000 nonfarm payroll workforce in America.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

According to this little story we dropped 17,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate changed from 5% to 4.9%

With 145.7M workers/unemployed:
5% unemployment is 7,285,000
4.9% unemployment is 7,139,300

145,700 people wandered "off the books" from the looks of this report [and verified by BLS] since they did not show up in "NEW JOBS" or any other category.

So besides the -17,000 NEW unemployed folks, it looks like another 145,700 finished up their 26 weeks of unemployment insurance and did not get rehired. So the Net-Net for the month is actually -162.700

Ta da!
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Last edited by mcbear : 02-01-2008 at 09:02 PM.
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Old 02-01-2008, 09:35 PM   #15 (permalink)
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^^^^Bear you are bad man, keep this up and Jay will come to Lexington and take away your calculator...............
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Old 02-02-2008, 01:45 AM   #16 (permalink)
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^^^^Bear you are bad man, keep this up and Jay will come to Lexington and take away your calculator...............
That's bloody funny Jay.
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Old 02-02-2008, 05:23 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics we have a 145,700,000 nonfarm payroll workforce in America.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

According to this little story we dropped 17,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate changed from 5% to 4.9%

With 145.7M workers/unemployed:
5% unemployment is 7,285,000
4.9% unemployment is 7,139,300

145,700 people wandered "off the books" from the looks of this report [and verified by BLS] since they did not show up in "NEW JOBS" or any other category.

So besides the -17,000 NEW unemployed folks, it looks like another 145,700 finished up their 26 weeks of unemployment insurance and did not get rehired. So the Net-Net for the month is actually -162.700

Ta da!
There you go again...
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Old 02-02-2008, 05:25 AM   #18 (permalink)
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^^^^Bear you are bad man, keep this up and Jay will come to Lexington and take away your calculator...............
He doesn't have a calculator. He just makes that stuff up...
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Old 02-02-2008, 05:49 PM   #19 (permalink)
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He doesn't have a calculator. He just makes that stuff up...
That just happens to match the BLS numbers exactly. Amazing that coincidence.

Also,speaking of making stuff up, didn't you owe us some of those UP Trending Economic Indicators for the past 18 months or so?


And I Fly Excel. No little calculators for me - dump the data, jam the numbers.
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Old 02-02-2008, 06:09 PM   #20 (permalink)
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....... didn't you owe us some of those UP Trending Economic Indicators for the past 18 months or so?


And I Fly Excel. No little calculators for me - dump the data, jam the numbers.
I fly Excel too, but what the hell are "UP Trending Indicators???"
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