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post #1 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-25-2008, 05:21 PM Thread Starter
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Home Prices Fell in ’07 for First Time in Decades

Home Prices Fell in ’07 for First Time in Decades

It was a notable year for the housing industry, and not in a good way.

In 2007, the median price of an American single-family home fell for the first time in at least four decades, according to the National Association of Realtors, a trade group.

The median price declined 1.8 percent to $217,800, the first annual decline since reliable records began in 1968. “It’s the first price decline in many, many years and possibly going back to the Great Depression,” said the group’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun.

Over all, sales of previously owned single-family homes fell 13 percent in 2007, the biggest drop in a quarter-century. Last month alone, home sales dipped 2.2 percent from November, to a 4.89 million annual rate. (The group’s survey excludes newly constructed homes.)

Inventories of single-family homes and condominiums remain elevated, as the housing industry struggles to climb out of its worst downturn since the early 1990s. Though the backlog of unsold homes ticked down slightly in December, at least one economist attributed the drop to discouraged homeowners “pulling their homes off the market in the face of continued weak demand and falling prices.”

“We still have a long way to go before prices sink to levels necessary to balance supply and demand in the housing market,” the economist, Joshua Shapiro of MFR, a research firm, wrote.

Potential home buyers have stayed on the sidelines as they expect prices to drop further in 2008. Economists predict the housing market will not bottom out until the summer, and even then will remain sluggish.

The median price of a previously owned home was off 6 percent last month from December 2006, and sales of condominiums fell 25 percent.

The steepest decline in sales last month came in the Northeast, where sales fell 4.6 percent from November. Prices in the region were down 8.9 percent from December 2006.

Home Prices Fell in ’07 for First Time in Decades - New York Times
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post #2 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-25-2008, 08:32 PM
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I have been talking to Realtors for the past month and the four consistent things they tell me are that 1)there have never been more houses on the market, 2) they are on the market longer, 3) the listed/appraised price is usually about 15% higher than what you can expect to pay in this market and 4) if you can buy/get credit you will need an answering service to keep Realtors away. Re: #4, I get 15 emails and 7 or so calls a DAY from folks trying to sell me. There are desperate people who are waiting to buy/move who can't get credit because they can't sell what they have now. Bitchin' dominoes.

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post #3 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-26-2008, 09:13 AM
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Perspective... It's what's for dinner!

Just to keep things in perspective for all the Chicken Little's among us...
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Don't believe everything you think
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post #4 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-26-2008, 08:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Jayhawk View Post
Just to keep things in perspective for all the Chicken Little's among us...
Misleading chart on two fronts. First, in the 1980-1982 housing slump came off the 13.5% inflation rate of 1980. There was ONLY a .98M housing drop with an AVERAGE sell price of $82,200 for 1982 $80,556,000,000 market lost. The 2007 drop of 1.18 Million homes with an AVERAGE sell price of $293,200 represents a 2007 $345,976,000,000 market lost. That is $80B in 1982 to $345B in 2007 which represents an 449% increase in lost market.


And even more important, this chart assumes this "TUMBLE" has hit bottom and is over. A screamingly optimistic assumption.

This covers perspective.

EDIT:

New and corrected figures. Apparently I have to use ALL the correct numbers, not just a few and can't factor in the SL price of earlier today [which actually was part of the problem - don't ask]

The numbers in the body of the post above are now correct. 449% is the correct increase in lost market dollars from this current still sliding real estate economy.

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Last edited by mcbear; 01-26-2008 at 08:27 PM.
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post #5 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-26-2008, 08:13 PM
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Originally Posted by mcbear View Post
Misleading chart on two fronts. First, in the 1980-1982 housing slump came off the 13.5% inflation rate of 1980. There was ONLY a 1.99M housing drop with an AVERAGE sell price of $82,200 for 1982 $163,578,000,000 market lost. The 2007 drop of 4.94 Million homes with an AVERAGE sell price of $293,200 represents a 2007 $1,448,408,000,000 market lost. That is $163B in 1982 to $1.44T in 2007 which represents an 885% increase in lost market.


And even more important, this chart assumes this "TUMBLE" has hit bottom and is over. A screamingly optimistic assumption.

This covers perspective.
Those little fact thingies really drive you crazy, don't they?

Don't believe everything you think
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post #6 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-26-2008, 08:18 PM
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Those little fact thingies really drive you crazy, don't they?
I just like to keep um straight. Perspective is important.

So is accuracy. See edit above.

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Last edited by mcbear; 01-26-2008 at 08:28 PM.
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post #7 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-26-2008, 08:21 PM
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I just like to keep um straight. Perspective is important.
I could not agree more...

Don't believe everything you think
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post #8 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-26-2008, 08:30 PM
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You will enjoy that I checked on several properties today. I found this one place that seemed nice in the write up, 20 acres, Ranch, close to major highway. Since when is an Fn Doublewide a RANCH??????

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post #9 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-26-2008, 08:58 PM
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You will enjoy that I checked on several properties today. I found this one place that seemed nice in the write up, 20 acres, Ranch, close to major highway. Since when is an Fn Doublewide a RANCH??????
It is all on one level isn't it?

Definitions of Ranch Style Home on the Web:

Don't believe everything you think

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post #10 of 33 (permalink) Old 01-26-2008, 09:10 PM
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It is all on one level isn't it?

Definitions of Ranch Style Home on the Web:
Usually however someone has the decency to flag the word MODULAR or MOBILE or something before you drive 30 miles just to be surprised.

It did have a very nice 40X60 shop with it. That had to have cost 3X the "RANCH".

I should have been alerted by the "no photos yet" note.

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