Brace yourself! The U.S. Stock Market May "Crash!" - Page 9 - Mercedes-Benz Forum

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post #81 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-23-2008, 03:21 PM
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I completely agree. OTOH, getting into bonds prevented me from a 800 pt loss, which I appreciate. I may not have made money like I did from '03 - '07 but I didn't lose like I did in 01! OUCH! Nonetheless, in principle I agree with you and will get back into the market in the next week or so, though probably to a lesser proportion than I was at this past summer (60&#37. I think now is the time and I'll probably get in to S&P tracking at something like 40% or so. I'm into growth and willing to accept more risk than most people in my age and trajectory, I guess. Though I HATE that feeling of looking into the wrong-end of a telescope when it goes down.
As long as you keep a spread of aggressives/moderates and then some bonds to switch to when the tea leaves start looking funny then you should be on track.

I tend to be somewhat conservative on my investments based on my family history but then I will do very tangential aggressives that allow very big returns to compensate. My Brazil over 6 years at 900+% or last nights Asian bounce as examples.

I learned from parents who worked at a grocery store in Eastern Kentucky yet managed to, over their 40 years of working gather up a $700K nest-egg even with traveling all over the world after they retired in the early 1980s. And all they did was Savings Bonds, Treasuries, and Munies from 1950 to 2000. Since they went through the Depression, they wanted ZERO risk.

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post #82 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-23-2008, 03:30 PM
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As long as you keep a spread of aggressives/moderates and then some bonds to switch to when the tea leaves start looking funny then you should be on track.

I tend to be somewhat conservative on my investments based on my family history but then I will do very tangential aggressives that allow very big returns to compensate. My Brazil over 6 years at 900+% or last nights Asian bounce as examples.

I learned from parents who worked at a grocery store in Eastern Kentucky yet managed to, over their 40 years of working gather up a $700K nest-egg even with traveling all over the world after they retired in the early 1980s. And all they did was Savings Bonds, Treasuries, and Munies from 1950 to 2000. Since they went through the Depression, they wanted ZERO risk.
Like most people say, stay in for the long term and don't sweat the short term.

My Mom exhibits the same brilliance. Patience pays.

The biggest problems we are facing right now have to do with George Bush trying to bring more and more power into the executive branch and not go through Congress at all and that’s what I intend to reverse.

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post #83 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-23-2008, 03:46 PM Thread Starter
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I completely agree. OTOH, getting into bonds prevented me from a 800 pt loss, which I appreciate. I may not have made money like I did from '03 - '07 but I didn't lose like I did in 01! OUCH! Nonetheless, in principle I agree with you and will get back into the market in the next week or so, though probably to a lesser proportion than I was at this past summer (60%). I think now is the time and I'll probably get in to S&P tracking at something like 40% or so. I'm into growth and willing to accept more risk than most people in my age and trajectory, I guess. Though I HATE that feeling of looking into the wrong-end of a telescope when it goes down.
I recommend you develop a good asset allocation formula and stick w/ year to year. I don't know if you're in TIAA-CREF, which most of us university-types are, but here is how I recently rebalanced my portfolio for this year:

Large US Core - CREF Stock - 20%
Large US Value - TIAA Cref Large Cap Value Fund - 8%
Large US Growth - Growth Fund of America - 15%
Mid Cap Blend - TIAA-Cref Mid Cap Blend Index - 2%
Small Cap Value - Royce Opportunity - 2%
Global - Cref Global Equities - 16%
International - American Funds Europacific Growth 10%
Inflation Protected Strategies - CREF Inflation Linked Bond Account - 8%
Investment Grade Bonds - Cref Bond Market Account - 17%
Real Estate - 2%

Don't believe everything you think

Last edited by Jayhawk; 01-23-2008 at 03:49 PM.
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post #84 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-23-2008, 03:49 PM
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I recommend you develop a good asset allocation formula and stick w/ year to year. I don't know if you're in TIAA-CREF, which most of us university-types are, but here is how I recently rebalanced my portfolio for this year:

<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=489411222-03122007>
<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Large
You redistributed to HTML? You sneaky bastard.

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post #85 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-23-2008, 03:52 PM Thread Starter
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You redistributed to HTML? You sneaky bastard.
See above... I don't know why that Cut-and-Paste did that...

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post #86 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-23-2008, 03:52 PM
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I recommend you develop a good asset allocation formula and stick w/ year to year. I don't know if you're in TIAA-CREF, which most of us university-types are, but here is how I recently rebalanced my portfolio for this year:

Large US Core - CREF Stock - 20%
Large US Value - TIAA Cref Large Cap Value Fund - 8%
Large US Growth - Growth Fund of America - 15%
Mid Cap Blend - TIAA-Cref Mid Cap Blend Index - 2%
Small Cap Value - Royce Opportunity - 2%
Global - Cref Global Equities - 16%
International - American Funds Europacific Growth 10%
Inflation Protected Strategies - CREF Inflation Linked Bond Account - 8%
Investment Grade Bonds - Cref Bond Market Account - 17%
Real Estate - 2%
Are they projecting about 9% for that allocation? That looks good by the way.

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post #87 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-23-2008, 07:47 PM Thread Starter
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Are they projecting about 9% for that allocation? That looks good by the way.
9%?

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post #88 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-23-2008, 08:20 PM
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post #89 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-23-2008, 08:53 PM
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9%?
I was asking if whoever was helping with that mix was projecting about 9% growth for the year from that mix. It looks pretty good for 9-10% annually.

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post #90 of 111 (permalink) Old 01-23-2008, 09:04 PM Thread Starter
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I was asking if whoever was helping with that mix was projecting about 9&#37; growth for the year from that mix. It looks pretty good for 9-10% annually.
My Morgan Stanley broker and his team of hedge fund managers came up w/ that asset allocation for me based on what TIAA-CREF funds were available. They didn't say anything about growth potential, but last year their formula produced a 19.8% net return. What it might return this year is anyones guess. It all depends on what the markets do. And so far this year my funds are probably down 2-5%! But if I'm right about the outlook for the year, I expect at least an 8 to 12% return.

Don't believe everything you think

Last edited by Jayhawk; 01-23-2008 at 09:18 PM.
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